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Monitoring a potential important TV to East Coastal storm: Jan 17


Typhoon Tip
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  On 1/14/2022 at 12:48 PM, Ginx snewx said:

6 z Euro pops a 984 at the elbow looks like a mesolow that will keep some tucked

index (12).png

index (13).png

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Won’t help us aloft. Might keep the sfc colder in the 30s during the rain a d maybe produce some ZR far enough interior like N ORH county. Otherwise, no real effect in terms of snowfall. We’d need the redevelopment to happen in the midlevels for it to matter on snow. 

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  On 1/14/2022 at 12:55 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Won’t help us aloft. Might keep the sfc colder in the 30s during the rain a d maybe produce some ZR far enough interior like N ORH county. Otherwise, no real effect in terms of snowfall. We’d need the redevelopment to happen in the midlevels for it to matter on snow. 

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Right but maintains easterly inflow for the hills and points north where it matters the most anyways. They and their economy needs it more than I do.  Hard to believe are still 3 days out

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  On 1/14/2022 at 12:58 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Right but maintains easterly inflow for the hills and points north where it matters the most anyways. They and their economy needs it more than I do.  Hard to believe are still 3 days out

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Yeah it looks fine for NNE and N berks. It’s dogshit for most of SNE unless we get a meaningful shift…which still may happen but I’m skeptical given the very good model consistency. 

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  On 1/14/2022 at 12:54 PM, mahk_webstah said:

That’s a map that shows CON getting 6-7 me getting 8 -9 and Brian 10-11.  Exit 18 ftw .  Razors edge so some shifts cooler would be really helpful

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Good luck Mark 24hrs ago the Euro was visiting the hall of Fame. Still shifting and I think for the better for you

index (14).png

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  On 1/14/2022 at 1:09 PM, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

When Ginxy shifts to ski country, I tend to put the threat to bed down here.

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I was giving it until about 72 hours lead time…we’ve now gotten there and guidance is locked and loaded. If anything, I actually expect this to warm/amp up a bit more as we often see in southern stream systems…we’ll get that warm trend until maybe 24h out and then a little messenger shuffle. 
 

NAM is hinting at the mid-level warmth the most but I wouldn’t discount it just because it’s the NAM. Synoptically it makes sense. 
 

Hopefully we get an east tick, but how often do we see those with southern stream juicers? 

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As it stands currently, this one lacked the thrill of the chase. Just so damn stubborn and consistent with modeling and it’s track. Even when it doesn’t come to fruition, it’s fun when we get model swings showing something favorable and it whips the forum into a frenzy, that build up is sometimes more fun than the event itself. Didn’t have much of that this go-round, besides a random run out of Tokyo, lol.

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Interesting NWS discussion of upper levels in Berks:

In terms of where any warm nose could track.  The best chances for
any mix would be the mid Hudson Valley, NW CT and perhaps the
southern Berkshires. The very strong southeast to east boundary
layer winds push well into eastern NY but such a cold core closed
upper low could limit the north and west extent of the boundary
layer warm nose but again, those details are not completely clear
yet. Usually, the benchmark track of the upper system for all snow
in our region is the upper low tracking more toward Cape Cod, which
keeps any warm air well to the east but we will see.
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  On 1/14/2022 at 1:24 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

I'll go with 6-8" here with some meat added...    Should help my ski club continue into late February  

I haven't seen much change for MBY

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Your area is the most uncertain IMHO....I could see you getting 8-10" but I could also see you only getting 2-4" if this mid-level warm creep continues on guidance for another couple of cycles.

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  On 1/14/2022 at 1:20 PM, ORH_wxman said:

I was giving it until about 72 hours lead time…we’ve now gotten there and guidance is locked and loaded. If anything, I actually expect this to warm/amp up a bit more as we often see in southern stream systems…we’ll get that warm trend until maybe 24h out and then a little messenger shuffle. 
 

NAM is hinting at the mid-level warmth the most but I wouldn’t discount it just because it’s the NAM. Synoptically it makes sense. 
 

Hopefully we get an east tick, but how often do we see those with southern stream juicers? 

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Not often but so is this sfc track. Stranger things have happened. A couple ticks east can help some locals keep a pack…that’s the best case. 

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  On 1/14/2022 at 1:37 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Not often but so is this sfc track. Stranger things have happened. A couple ticks east can help some locals keep a pack…that’s the best case. 

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I do expect the interior to stay wedged....the question is whether it's mostly just ORH county and Berks or if most of SNE away from the coast stays wedged. Won't be much pack to protect though unless we can keep the mid-level warmth at bay for several hours during the heavy stuff.

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