Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 1:32 AM, powderfreak said: No it’s not. It’s the same or at least increased the westward side. Upstate NY saw biggest changes. Here’s 12z. Expand No On 1/13/2022 at 1:46 AM, Typhoon Tip said: We’ve likely seen the farthest extent of the west “overcompensation” and ensuing will be a collapse back SE. How much … ? I think the low-level cold air that’s being delivered on Saturday is probably not getting properly resolved at this particular range in the models. So whatever happens I would probably stall any kind of warm sector intrusion - that would be my educated guess for 132 hour system. Whether that means holding on to snow longer holding on a mix longer going over to some ice or just being a 32° cold rain after front white wall, notwithstanding The other area of sensitivity for me revolves around what is going on with the NAO in Friday system as wave brakes and it sits there I don’t understand how that thing is going to pull out to the north that readily if the NAO really does flip signs. You have to models have been selling that. Plus the things I talked about earlier in the day regarding what’s really going to get relayed off the Pacific Ocean starting tomorrow and then again at 60 hours. Those are some leap out reasons why I said I am by no way sold on any of those positions in New York State Expand We tried to tell Freak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Its exciting to actually have a bonafide arctic airmass in place as a storm approaches for once...man, it's been years. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 1:09 AM, SouthCoastMA said: WinterWolf? Expand C’mon…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 1:18 AM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I’d agree with that. The spread looks like it’s larger on the 18z run. Expand I think when guidance is in an unsavory position, increased uncertainty is a positive development. That was really all my point was in relation to the GEFS...not hugging them per se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 1:46 AM, WinterWolf said: Actually that 18z is better in my back yard, than it was at 12z…so for me it trended SE. Expand On 1/13/2022 at 1:51 AM, Damage In Tolland said: No We tried to tell Freak Expand Lol ok one or two counties of CT went from 48% to 52%. I forget how IMBY we all are despite large increases in PA and upstate NY. I just hate poor analysis on easily read models . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 1:54 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its exciting to actually have a bonafide arctic airmass in place as a storm approaches for once...man, it's been years. Expand Now let’s get it without a retreating high haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 1:57 AM, powderfreak said: Lol ok two counties of CT went from 48% to 52%. I forget how IMBY we all are despite large increases in PA and upstate NY. Expand CT weenies man. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 1:57 AM, CoastalWx said: Now let’s get it without a retreating high haha. Expand I mean, just get the low to track east of me...I will even take the high position with that antecedent airmass...won't pin the cf in Plymouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 1:56 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think when guidance is in an unsavory position, increased uncertainty is a positive development. Expand Yes..was thinking that too. Perhaps It’s starting to become less certain currently imo on what it’s been showing the last two days…changes are on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 1:59 AM, WinterWolf said: Yes..was thinking that too. Perhaps It’s starting to become less certain currently imo on what it’s been showing the last two days…changes are on the way. Expand Yes, not rip n' reading the mean just bc I mentioned it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 1:58 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I mean, just get the low to track east of me...I will even take the high position with that antecedent airmass...won't pin the cf in Plymouth. Expand You’re due for some man snows. A little piece of Weymouth for Methuen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 1:58 AM, CoastalWx said: CT weenies man. Expand It was SE for me..it’s a fact. Just saying what it showed here. If that’s being a weenie, that’s just fine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 1:58 AM, CoastalWx said: CT weenies man. Expand I don’t doubt it can go east and I need that primary to go east of VT to get into any mid-level lift. I mean they are talking lower than noise level in a couple percentage points in one county. Grab the tail of the wolf and get bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 2:02 AM, WinterWolf said: It was SE for me..it’s a fact. Just saying what it showed here. If that’s being a weenie, that’s just fine. Expand I feel like there is a lot on the line with this storm. Both regions feasting for the white stuff. I think I’m on the outside looking in, so I’m just kicking back and watching the fangs fly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 1:50 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: My whole point was that they seemed clueless bc they were simply chasing the OP, but this is the first suite that they aren't...that is all. I don't expect a foot of snow. Jesus, starting to think the less one says on here the better. Expand Your point was a great point and is something that provided a good deal of value to discussion. People interpret how they want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 1:50 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: My whole point was that they seemed clueless bc they were simply chasing the OP, but this is the first suite that they aren't...that is all. I don't expect a foot of snow. Jesus, starting to think the less one says on here the better. Expand I thought that after reading earlier this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 2:04 AM, CoastalWx said: I feel like there is a lot on the line with this storm. Both regions feasting for the white stuff. I think I’m on the outside looking in, so I’m just kicking back and watching the fangs fly. Expand Hopefully we get something we can sink our teeth into. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 2:02 AM, WinterWolf said: It was SE for me..it’s a fact. Just saying what it showed here. If that’s being a weenie, that’s just fine. Expand It’s also not SE… maybe it increased you by 3% on front end thump before rain? Minor increase in snowfall isn’t a tick SE per se when PA/upstate NY see the largest increases is what I was trying to say. I want it east too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 2:04 AM, CoastalWx said: I feel like there is a lot on the line with this storm. Both regions feasting for the white stuff. I think I’m on the outside looking in, so I’m just kicking back and watching the fangs fly. Expand There is a great deal on the line with this storm. While the focus is on snow vs. no snow this storm (regardless of snow or not) could be very impactful. You have high wind potential so there will be risk for power outages and given the degree of cold behind the storm (for at least a few days anyway) that could be bad news for some then you have the risk for what could be rather devastating coastal flooding if those cards play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 1:57 AM, powderfreak said: Lol ok one or two counties of CT went from 48% to 52%. I forget how IMBY we all are despite large increases in PA and upstate NY. I just hate poor analysis on easily read models . Expand To use the popular saying from earlier today, are you new here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 2:04 AM, CoastalWx said: I feel like there is a lot on the line with this storm. Both regions feasting for the white stuff. I think I’m on the outside looking in, so I’m just kicking back and watching the fangs fly. Expand I was merely saying it increased a lil from 12z. Nothing more. No fangs. No bite. Just an observation for that run. Probably means nothing. But was just saying what it showed here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 2:06 AM, powderfreak said: It’s also not SE… maybe it increased you by 3% on front end thump before rain? Minor increase in snowfall isn’t a tick SE per se when PA/upstate NY see the largest increases is what I was trying to say. I want it east too. Expand Fair enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Sure are a lot of peeps on the defensive tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Weenie wars. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 2:07 AM, WinterWolf said: I was merely saying it increased a lil from 12z. Nothing more. No fangs. No bite. Just an observation for that run. Probably means nothing. But was just saying what it showed here. Expand I haven’t looked hard, but that could be a result of some Uber west members maybe not so far west anymore, thus increasing the snow probs a bit? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 2:04 AM, CoastalWx said: I feel like there is a lot on the line with this storm. Both regions feasting for the white stuff. I think I’m on the outside looking in, so I’m just kicking back and watching the fangs fly. Expand Outside looking in? The thump looks pretty legit on most models off the cape. It may all get washed awY, but enjoy the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 2:10 AM, PhineasC said: Weenie wars. Expand Sword fight lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 2:04 AM, CoastalWx said: I feel like there is a lot on the line with this storm. Both regions feasting for the white stuff. I think I’m on the outside looking in, so I’m just kicking back and watching the fangs fly. Expand The funny thing is we all want the same thing… east, so the mid-level fun over PA and SYR can angle northeast and not up into Ontario/Quebec. I will admit I get triggered a bit by map interpretations that I think miss the larger image lol. Hopefully it actually goes southeast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 2:11 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Outside looking in? The thump looks pretty legit on most models off the cape. It may all get washed awY, but enjoy the snow Expand The wife must have awarded you with a rub and tug. You seem happier and relaxed. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 2:14 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The wife must have awarded you with a rub and tug. You seem happier and relaxed. Expand He gassed down a gummy or two maybe…? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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