MRVexpat Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I dunno’ I am with @Ginx snewx on this one, I think a track over Boston is more likely than a track over Albany. Would be huge for the ski areas. Its been such a rough season up there so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Although it’s not a SWFE, it is behaving in some ways similarly but the ceiling for those staying frozen (far north or NW) is a lot higher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I dunno’ I am with @Ginx snewx on this one, I think a track over Boston is more likely than a track over Albany. Climo or history wise its way more likely. ALB tracks have happened but more so in a straightforward manner like 1/87 or 3/93...this is a strange ass capture scenario at 100 plus hours so yeah I'd say something like HAT-NYC-BOS is way more likely to bet on 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I do, too, but I honestly don't think that changes much for me...it will end up a colder rain and maybe 2-3" more of snow. The fun look is dead. I take it no first call tomorrow or Friday...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No, the fact that they did, and then inexorably marched towards the OP for the past two days. If the ens had matched the OP from the get-go, it would have been an easy call to not invest. well...the immediate next sentence, "*However*, lacking an alternate eye-candy, that may simply be an artifact of there not - at present ... - being a physically available solution in that space.." means there may not be any other solution; the physicality of the period is what it is. I mean there's some speculation there, too. But the mean is not likely to 'match the operational' ...not beyond 120 hours. Having said that.. uuuusually the the weight of the ensemble mean at 144+ will win out over any one member, including the operational - in the absolute sense. In that sense, one may feel 'teased' here. There are times, however, where the higher resolution "physical equation endowed" operational versions win going the other way. It's entirely possible, this is one of those occasions. I still would like to see if a 'weaker' relay at 24 hours .. then again at 72 hours, from off the Pacific might cause this to modulate going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, 78Blizzard said: I take it no first call tomorrow or Friday...? I didn't say that...there will be. It will just be more laborious than fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 i love nothing better than 38 and rain in January 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: well...the immediate next sentence, "*However*, lacking an alternate eye-candy, that may simply be an artifact of there not - at present ... - being a physically available solution in that space.." means there may not be any other solution; the physicality of the period is what it is. I mean there's some speculation there, too. But the mean is not likely to 'match the operational' ...not beyond 120 hours. Having said that.. uuuusually the the weight of the ensemble mean at 144+ will win out over any one member, including the operational - in the absolute sense. There are times, however, where the higher resolution "physical equation endowed" operational versions win going the other way. It's entirely possible, this is one of those occasions. I still would like to see if a 'weaker' relay at 24 hours .. then again at 72 hours, from off the Pacific might cause this to modulate going forward. No, I get what you mean and I was always leery of that..its just frustrating to see it actually breaking that way in a season in which very little has gone right for MBY. Obviously I know the ens mean is usually a useful tool, but like any other, the upper bounds of its utility is the degree to which we can deploy it effectively. That is forever a work in progress. I was obviously speaking from emotion to a degree; I admitted that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: EPS agrees . East is best slam bam, thank you maam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, MRVexpat said: Would be huge for the ski areas. Its been such a rough season up there so far. Yeah we're all hoping for a hugger , a track over ike ORH to PSM would be great 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Look at all those "Ls" surrounding Ray. "Finish Him!" 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Maybe it’ll go so far west that it’ll end up east again 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: Look at all those "Ls" surrounding Ray. "Finish Him!" Ensemble mean, wins....flawless victory. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No, I get what you mean and I was always leery of that..its just frustrating to see it actually breaking that way in a season in which very little has gone right for MBY. Obviously I know the ens mean is usually a useful tool, but like any other, the upper bounds of its utility is the degree to which we can utilize it effectively. That is forever a work in progress. I was obviously speaking from emotion to a degree, I admitted that. Yeah...I mentioned that to Wiz' that you said you were frustrated - end of story... lol - Look, I'm not numb to it. I'd like to see/experience a really good storm and have it be the stuff of cryo-coke legend. I almost suspect this winter is a one ...maybe two, even less likely, a three and done type of year. It's not scientific? But it feels that way... It's like, what we get out of this year in that regard, is going to happen in a like a single two week stint, otherwise, it's going to be a speed soaked sheared out shit-show. The -PNA in Dec didn't help, either - only added to the sting...but I also feel that we've been dealing with some of that broadly scaled, neg/destructive interference regardless of ENSOs, or intraseasonal index modes...et al, spanning enough years now that heh - no faith or reason why it will suddenly stop... I don't ...whatever, this storm is going to perhaps go down as nailing a bigger system, with no f'ing dividends to show for it. Hahaha. man, what a CD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah...I mentioned that to Wiz' that you said you were frustrated - end of story... lol - Look, I'm not numb to it. I'd like to see/experience a really good storm and have it be the stuff of cryo-coke legend. I almost suspect this winter is a one ...maybe two, even less likely, a three and done type of year. It's not scientific? But it feels that way... It's like, what we get out of this year in that regard, is going to happen in a like a single two week stint, otherwise, it's going to be a speed soaked shear shit. The -PNA in Dec didn't help...but I also feel that we've been dealing with some of that broadly scaled, neg/destructive interference regardless of ENSOs, or intraseasonal index modes...et al, spanning enough years now that heh - no faith or reason why it will suddenly stop... I don't ...whatever, this storm is going to perhaps go down as nailing a bigger system, with no f'ing dividends to show for it. Hahaha. man, what a CD There is a reason for it to stop... so this f8$%king piece of shit can phase enough to track over Brattleboro and ruin my life for the next month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 15 minutes ago, WeatherHappens said: i love nothing better than 38 and rain in January How about raining at 32 ... when the thermal momentum quanta bounce, keeps it liquid despite being freezing... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: How about raining at 32 ... when the thermal momentum quanta bounce, keeps it liquid despite being freezing... I have always been fascinated by the phenomena of being in the 20s when precipitation begins, shooting up to 32.5F and then not budging from that temperature for hours. It’s as if the atmosphere has a sense of humor. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bishbish777 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Lookin' like a whole lot of rain for E MA.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 "Marty, quick, we must get into the Delorian and go back to February 2015 and stop the pattern from ever changing"! 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I have always been fascinated by the phenomena of being in the 20s when precipitation begins, shooting up to 32.5F and then not budging from that temperature for hours. It’s as if the atmosphere has a sense of humor. Happens a lot here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just think ... in alternate universe theory, there is one that is identical to this one, with one and only one, singular difference being ... The JMA is the "Euro" and the Euro is the "JMA" Man... that 120 to 144 hour JMA solution from 12z ...why can't that model be all the golden ballz 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 We need a 100 mile shift se, is that really impossible? The storm is still 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, George001 said: We I need a 100 mile shift se sit down with a clinical specialist, is that really impossible? The storm is still 5 days out. Yup ... because you want it - muah hahahaha... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 poop thread? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 17 minutes ago, bishbish777 said: Lookin' like a whole lot of rain for E MA.. Rainy days and Monday’s always get me down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 22 minutes ago, bishbish777 said: Lookin' like a whole lot of rain for E MA.. It doesn’t look great right now but we don’t know that yet, it may not rain on Monday in eastern mass. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 snow probs look great on WPC and qpf is up ove 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 26 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Rainy days and Monday’s always get me down Great song. Kind of feels like the mood in here lately... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: As optimistic as I am feeling on this one, I would sell that hard hard hard That includes your 1-3" from Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 One reason to remain somewhat optimistic for more snow is that the antecedent airmass is strong, so if that high holds on just a shade longer, you prob get disproportional return on the snowfall in the positive direction. You can even see it on the some of the ensemble members. Some of the ones that hold onto the high just a smidge more thump 8-12" in a pretty large area over SNE. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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