MJO812 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Loving the 967 lows there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 Spirit of commiseration: ... -1 was the low, now 38 with melting snow. Face Palm Swing palm into face ...I dunno. Maybe this is another in the countless micro nuanced examples of CC at work. Like, 110 mph pushed fire storms on Dec 30 in Colorado. I guess that's bigger than a nuance though. But today for my location, this is the biggest diurnal change observed between last spring ... thru the summer and fall. Usually at this time of year ..that sort of diurnal change is forced by warm boundary passage. But this is doing it in open dry air, without a boundary - at least according to WPC. That's an example of a 'nuance' in this sense. Weird little oddities that don't matter, but there are multitudes ...countless, happening all around. It's like not usual, but not typical, happening a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Man pack. It's a pretty good result all things considered. minimal rain, cold before and after. Freeze it all up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, PhineasC said: LOL this thing will keep going west I guess. No, see @SnowGoose69 post. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 38 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: That works for me. Was just going to say the same thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 No change from yesterday, even if I caught slack. WNE looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 JMA looks good (for what its worth) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 It's easier to accept when you don't have a dog in the fight. Emotions will always dictate some of the responses. Imagine for one moment the region gets back-to-back KU's, MBY has 3' of snow on the ground and still not satisfied. Still a long way to go before critiquing an outcome that is least wrong in the end. Analysis of reason is lacking. Just a personal observation. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 15 minutes ago, dryslot said: Looks like the 12z EPS mean track took the slp right over SEMA. thump slot crust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 14 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: No, see @SnowGoose69 post. The GFS is already further west and the euro is chasing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 20 minutes ago, dryslot said: Looks like the 12z EPS mean track took the slp right over SEMA. So did this move the 12z EPS West, or did it shift right. I am so confused LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 25 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I can agree that ensembles may be rather useless in this sense. Maybe this sort of logic can be applied to every storm but in the sense of this event ensemble means and individuals and their outputs really aren't going to tell us something we can't figure out on our own. Each solution/output is essentially tied into the evolution of the upper-levels. You can have 48/48 (whatever the number is) ensembles all show a track through the Hudson Valley...now something like that may yield extremely high confidence in such a scenario unfolding but that probably wouldn't be the case here. That is essentially tied into how the model is evolving the upper-levels. The next set of ensembles could go in the entirely opposite direction if the evolution is handled differently. All in all IMO ensembles really aren't going to tell us something we can't figure out by applying science/meteorology Obviously the present "attitude" toward ens' is rooted when/where the members don't happen to show an alternate solution that is consistent with what people want to see - preferably, and important storm that is more snow than rain. Not complicated *However*, lacking an alternate eye-candy, that may simply be an artifact of there not - at present ... - being a physically available solution in that space. I think I was miss-interpreting the sentiment not just by him, but shared elsewhere, that they were more "technically" less than useful. Lol. - he said he's just frustrated. We know we're capable of rationality - but ... this is an important storm, but folks were sort of invested - I suspect - in the snowier ideas, because the runs two days ago had that? So, we decide to commit to a thread... It's far more success in forecasting for that alone, but unfortunately, these sort of vicissitudes come with the territory. It's like what Scott said many pages back - going to the casino is a sure bet, not what goes on there. Wah wah wahhh. There's that ole aspect of this particular forum culture being pretty singularly guided by snowfall expectations.. Just gotta know the audience and roll with it. So, it's understandable. A low going from the the Del Marva ... west of Albany is going to yank some chains. But as long we're on the subject... I really hope we break out of this winter mid next month... I have been contemplating at times, how we've had like ho man ... 5 separate occurrence of warm anomalies in Febs and Mars, over the last 6 or so years, where temps were 70 to 85. Not a single afternoon either. They were book ended by some 3 to 5 day stints of +15 total departure days. I'm wondering if one of these years instead of the door cracking open, it opens all way and stays that way. And just have 10 month summer ( expressively speaking...). There's a minority of us in here that would think that would be really interesting.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Trend continues west. It may be slowing and may tick E. Inland folks still can see sig snows during the initial thump. I think the coast is just about toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said: So did this move the 12z EPS West, or did it shift right. I am so confused LOL The Op is well west of the mean on the ensembles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Agree with Will on the front-ender. That's probably the best we can hope for right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not on F5. My name is Humpity pronounced with a Thumpity 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinghamBoss Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On to Winter 2022-2023? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: My name is Humpity pronounced with a Thumpity As optimistic as I am feeling on this one, I would sell that hard hard hard 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Insane how the models then show a rainstorm at night. Weather is amazing. Here’s Berlin for that Jan 99 storm that had freezing rain in the valleys of central PA with temps in the single digits and a transition to SN-ice-RA up here. Before the storm there was a shallow arctic airmass that bled in and NNE cleared out and radiated into the -30s and -40s. Anyway, here’s an ob from BML from that cold morning…-35°F here. BML,1999-01-14 11:52,KBML 141152Z AUTO 00000KT 6SM HZ CLR M37/ A3072 RMK AO2 SLP454 70014 T1372 11300 21372 53021 Then 35hrs later, after many inches of snow, and then sleet, and then ZR…it transitioned to all rain. 35°F and mod rain here. BML,1999-01-15 22:52,KBML 152252Z AUTO 36006KT 5SM RA BR BKN012 BKN017 OVC023 02/01 A2949 RMK AO2 PRESFR SLP005 P0007 T00170006 So it warmed up 70 degrees in 35hrs and eventually poured. Sometimes, warm air don’t care. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 28 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I'm on my desktop...I can't believe you still have that sig lol. What a clown I was back in 2014 (and still am). lol. Still the best sig ever on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: My name is Humpity pronounced with a Thumpity That 6-9" green area in the transition zone probably ends up more like 3-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: My name is Humpity pronounced with a Thumpity stormvista clown maps are much lower east of the berks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Why are they ens useless? So are you saying the ens don't justify their means? 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Obviously the present "attitude" toward ens' is rooted when/where the members don't happen to show an alternate solution that is consistent with what people want to see - preferably, and important storm that is more snow than rain. Not complicated *However*, lacking an alternate eye-candy, that may simply be an artifact of there not - at present ... - being a physically available solution in that space. I think I was miss-interpreting the sentiment not just by him, but shared elsewhere, that they were more "technically" less than useful. Lol. - he said he's just frustrated. We know we're capable of rationality - but ... this is an important storm, but folks were sort of invested - I suspect - in the snowier ideas, because the runs two days ago had that? So, we decide to commit to a thread... It's far more success in forecasting for that alone, but unfortunately, these sort of vicissitudes come with the territory. It's like what Scott said many pages back - going to the casino is a sure bet, not what goes on there. Wah wah wahhh. There's that ole aspect of this particular forum culture being pretty singularly guided by snowfall expectations.. Just gotta know the audience and roll with it. So, it's understandable. A low going from the the Del Marva ... west of Albany is going to yank some chains. But as long we're on the subject... I really hope we break out of this winter mid next month... I have been contemplating at times, how we've had like ho man ... 5 separate occurrence of warm anomalies in Febs and Mars, over the last 6 or so years, where temps were 70 to 85. Not a single afternoon either. They were book ended by some 3 to 5 day stints of +15 total departure days. I'm wondering if one of these years instead of the door cracking open, it opens all way and stays that way. And just have 10 month summer ( expressively speaking...). There's a minority of us in here that would think that would be really interesting.. No, the fact that they did, and then inexorably marched towards the OP for the past two days. If the ens had matched the OP from the get-go, it would have been an easy call to not invest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: My name is Humpity pronounced with a Thumpity Yup, make sure you have extra shearing pins for the snowblower. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 25 minutes ago, mikem81 said: JMA looks good (for what its worth) I guess we're that desperate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, klw said: So are you saying the ens don't justify their means? Nice! good one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I dunno’ I am with @Ginx snewx on this one, I think a track over Boston is more likely than a track over Albany. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I dunno’ I am with @Ginx snewx on this one, I think a track over Boston is more likely than a track over Albany. I do, too, but I honestly don't think that changes much for me...it will end up a colder rain and maybe 2-3" more of snow. The fun look is dead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I dunno’ I am with @Ginx snewx on this one, I think a track over Boston is more likely than a track over Albany. EPS agrees . East is best 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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