HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, RDRY said: In the Berks, these storms always bring in the snow quicker than forecast, but also flip over to sleet/ice/rain much quicker than forecast. Usually. Could be prolonged sleet in a Euro type setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, dryslot said: I'm wearing different glasses then you it seems. ngl, I didn't exactly know where BGM was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just returned to find about 10 pages of new posts.....what a shitshow. lol 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, moneypitmike said: Just returned to find about 10 pages of new posts.....what a shitshow. lol Thankfully, the lead actor has now arrived 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Our Grinch storm showed up 3 weeks late it seems. ...Except for the literal rain that happened on Christmas day 3 weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 It could easily keep trending westward. Might have to worry about coastal flooding/strong winds over snow. Pretty strong low on Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: EPS is going to follow the OP (to whatever extent) as expected Not even looking at the ensembles for this one anymore. Useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Grinch storm last year did this. Started off at day 8-10 as snow bomb and ended up wiping out snowpack to Quebec 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Usually. Could be prolonged sleet in a Euro type setup. Yup. Holds the pack. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 ...Keep it tracking west. Send that sh.it show up through the Ohio valley. Enough is enough of this tom-fu.ckery. I want out but I can't get off the damn ride. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Cold Miser said: ...Keep it tracking west. Send that sh.it show up through the Ohio valley. Enough is enough of this tom-fu.ckery. I want out but I can't get off the damn ride. either way, a SE ridge ain't walking through the door 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It could easily keep trending westward. Might have to worry about coastal flooding/strong winds over snow. Pretty strong low on Euro Yeh it aint going any further west...you'd need wholesale changes in the evolution down in the SE and I don't see that happening. The capture scenario the Euro has from the MA on north is about as extreme as you will get so we'd need to see the system dig way way less over the TN valley or something to get this to be an OH Valley or WRN PA track 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not even looking at the ensembles for this one anymore. Useless. Why are they ens useless? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Why are the ens useless? Beer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: either way, a SE ridge ain't walking through the door The long range has looked great since before Xmas, and I've seen like 6". Just so maddening. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Why are they ens useless? I'm not getting into it. I'm sure we won't see eye to eye and I'm speaking out of frustration. Most people get what I mean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: The long range has looked great since before Xmas, and I've seen like 6". Just so maddening. ...Our hopes and prayers rest on an epic February since a warm Morch is undoubtedly waiting in the wings to break the winter of 21/22's fragile, ailing and covid infected back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Maybe it occludes further west mitigating warm air intrusion into the northeast. Would keep things frozen longer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, there is no doubt in my mind there will be a huge gradient at like exit 1 or two over the NH line on I 93...like 2 miles nw of me. That area is usually a dividing line of sorts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 32 minutes ago, dryslot said: I'll take that. snow,sleet, drizzle/dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not getting into it. I'm sure we won't see eye to eye and I'm speaking out of frustration. Most people get what I mean. Not enough perturbation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: LOL this thing will keep going west I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: ...Keep it tracking west. Send that sh.it show up through the Ohio valley. Enough is enough of this tom-fu.ckery. I want out but I can't get off the damn ride. I'm on my desktop...I can't believe you still have that sig lol. What a clown I was back in 2014 (and still am). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Maybe it occludes further west mitigating warm air intrusion into the northeast. Would keep things frozen longer. Yeah, at this point I think we want this thing to just keep going west if it won't come back east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Looks like the 12z EPS mean track took the slp right over SEMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not getting into it. I'm sure we won't see eye to eye and I'm speaking out of frustration. Most people get what I mean. I can agree that ensembles may be rather useless in this sense. Maybe this sort of logic can be applied to every storm but in the sense of this event ensemble means and individuals and their outputs really aren't going to tell us something we can't figure out on our own. Each solution/output is essentially tied into the evolution of the upper-levels. You can have 48/48 (whatever the number is) ensembles all show a track through the Hudson Valley...now something like that may yield extremely high confidence in such a scenario unfolding but that probably wouldn't be the case here. That is essentially tied into how the model is evolving the upper-levels. The next set of ensembles could go in the entirely opposite direction if the evolution is handled differently. All in all IMO ensembles really aren't going to tell us something we can't figure out by applying science/meteorology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I can't believe the navy went OTS, what a model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I'll take that. snow,sleet, drizzle/dryslot. Man pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I'll take that. snow,sleet, drizzle/dryslot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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