dryslot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 By listening to some, You would have thought it went thru BGM..........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 6:36 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: That works for me. Expand I don't think right now anyone would toss that compared to the alternative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 6:37 PM, dryslot said: By listening to some, You would have thought it went thru BGM..........lol Expand I mean, it wouldn't take much more to do that...it goes from ABE to ALB. The initial confluence did seem to make the front end a little colder this run though...so if that is a trend that we can keep up, then we might be able to get a triple point low further east in later runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 6:13 PM, ORH_wxman said: Friday's system is def hanging back on this euro run....we'll see how much that affects the Monday storm. Expand You know .. it's interesting. You can see why the GEFs mean has been east of the operational version - even tough they are both trended west over the last 3 cycles. The 00z EOFs have a really highly concerted mode shit where the NAO goes from a starting point basically now at +1 SD, to -1 by D6. Total mode change of -2 SD. Meanwhile, looking at the operational GFS... the graphics don't appeal as emphatic about that mode change. Basically, it's parting company with its own ens mean wrt to that factor. I think some of this whole ordeal is sensitive to the westerly, vs neutral, vs success of the NAO actually doing all that. It can force things S. I also believe that 24 hrs, then again 72 hrs, are very critical windows for how these waves interact down stream. 24 hours there's a relay off the Pac... I annotated that earlier. At 72 hours, that when the N stream comes in - neither of these features are actually within the physically realized grid. It's unfortunate that the flow continues to speed up as ext ranges come near, while events in the flow, tend to dampen. Both those two sort of like, 'built in' corrections are really turning this winter ( and the last several for that matter - ) into a tedious bore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 6:38 PM, ORH_wxman said: I mean, it wouldn't take much more to do that...it goes from ABE to ALB. The initial confluence did seem to make the front end a little colder this run though...so if that is a trend that we can keep up, then we might be able to get a triple point low further east in later runs. Expand Yup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 6:37 PM, dryslot said: By listening to some, You would have thought it went thru BGM..........lol Expand Well it did go through Albany 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 6:37 PM, dryslot said: I don't think right now anyone would toss that compared to the alternative. Expand I guess I’ll be drinking these on Monday. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 6:27 PM, MJO812 said: I thought the NAO is negative Expand There has been some majority rainers in -NAOs before...usually they are Miller Bs that don't dig very far south but I believe 12/25/02 was a -NAO storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Our Grinch storm showed up 3 weeks late it seems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 This run is a bit better snowise...gives me about 9". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 6:41 PM, Chrisrotary12 said: Our Grinch storm showed up 3 weeks late it seems. Expand ? Still seems like there is potential for a net gainer here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 6:27 PM, MJO812 said: I thought the NAO is negative Expand The NAO is trending negative as this is unfolding which is I believe what you typically want to see...but this goes to show there is much more to snow/cold than just the NAO. It actually even looks like we have a pseudo 50/50 low which usually is a good thing as well (but might actually also be enhancing the ridging). The big problem is the system becomes so amped and does so too early and we develop strong upstream ridging. With the core of the ridging across northern New England this acts as a block in a sense and the storm goes west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 6:41 PM, Chrisrotary12 said: Our Grinch storm showed up 3 weeks late it seems. Expand Awful grinch gives you a foot. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Look at these temps Sunday morning on the Euro. Insane how the models then show a rainstorm at night. Weather is amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Waiting on the pope to come in and give us his blessing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 6:28 PM, JC-CT said: So we've thrown out the GFS, CMC, Euro, UKMET and NAVGEM. That leaves us with.... Expand Futurecast mode 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Take under on the snowmaps. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 6:41 PM, JC-CT said: Well it did go through Albany Expand BGM would have went up the St Lawrence though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 6:45 PM, CoastalWx said: Take under on the snowmaps. Expand I said that earlier, and you and Will told me why they were correct. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Low goes right over my head. Not terrible but the trend is clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 6:46 PM, dryslot said: BGM would have went up the St Lawrence though. Expand There's still time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 @PhineasCis going to get like 14” in 10-12 hours and then dry slot with that low level jet into the mountains. @kulaginmantoo. Like a wall of QPF moving in and then moving out but high precip rates while it’s there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 6:47 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I said that earlier, and you and Will told me why they were correct. Expand I'll clarify, especially near the borderline areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 6:41 PM, Chrisrotary12 said: Our Grinch storm showed up 3 weeks late it seems. Expand Supply chain issue... 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 6:36 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: That works for me. Expand In the Berks, these storms always bring in the snow quicker than forecast, but also flip over to sleet/ice/rain much quicker than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 EPS is going to follow the OP (to whatever extent) as expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 6:49 PM, CoastalWx said: I'll clarify, especially near the borderline areas. Expand Fetch coming from the Bahamas. That’s lots of sleet on those weenie snow maps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 6:47 PM, JC-CT said: There's still time Expand I'm wearing different glasses then you it seems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 6:49 PM, CoastalWx said: I'll clarify, especially near the borderline areas. Expand Well, there is no doubt in my mind there will be a huge gradient at like exit 1 or two over the NH line on I 93...like 2 miles nw of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 6:53 PM, Allsnow said: Fetch coming from the Bahamas. That’s lots of sleet on those weenie snow maps Expand Not on F5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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