JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Go Kart Mozart said: I believe that the ensemble mean is nearly useless. Do a Google of the Golden Mean Fallacy. The clusters give the best hints, and there was always a significant west-clusterF. Only since 12z yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Can we talk about how utterly useless the ensembles appear to be right now? All they have done is slowly chase the OP on all 3 major suites. I thought we were supposed to look at the ensembles and ignore the ops this far out? The melts will be something to behold over the next 4 days, with the slightest tick east bringing a short-lived euphoria with visions of BM positions dancing in peeps heads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Can we talk about how utterly useless the ensembles appear to be right now? All they have done is slowly chase the OP on all 3 major suites. They can fail in potent setups like this. I've found that to be true more often than not. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Can we talk about how utterly useless the ensembles appear to be right now? All they have done is slowly chase the OP on all 3 major suites. 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: GEFS have been pretty dispersive from the OP with respect to this system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: They can fail in potent setups like this. I've found that to be true more often than not. Except with potent ocean storms, then the seaward mean reigns supreme. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: They can fail in potent setups like this. I've found that to be true more often than not. Probably because of their lower resolution, so they tend of be more broad and smooth out things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: They can fail in potent setups like this. I've found that to be true more often than not. I was just gonna say this. You sort of have to know when ensembles are good to use or when they're not. They have clearly been leaning west of mean, which lends credence to western solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 There are plenty of rules, but when said rules mean snow this winter in Methuen, MA, then we learn how there are a myriad of exceptions to said rules. I'm sure the ensemble means will gets its MOJO back when the OP amps up for a blizzard next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Except with potent ocean storms, then the seaward mean reigns supreme. 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I was just gonna say this. You sort of have to know when ensembles are good to use or when they're not. They have clearly been leaning west of mean, which lends credence to western solutions. I almost treat it as more of a change in trend WRT time. Not necessarily what they have 6 days out or whatever. See what the trend is with the ensembles. It also helps seeing the members. When a large cluster looks like the op in a setup like this, lean back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: There are plenty of rules, but when said rules mean snow this winter in Methuen, MA, then we learn how there are a myriad of exceptions to said rules. Watch the storm track right over Methuen.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I almost treat it as more of a change in trend WRT time. Not necessarily what they have 6 days out or whatever. See what the trend is with the ensembles. It also helps seeing the members. When a large cluster looks like the op in a setup like this, lean back. I was nervous about it, but DT seemed to just discount the OP due to ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: Only since 12z yesterday No I have been posting this for a while, the mean is greatly misused. Let me give an example of the Golden Mean Fallacy: Let's say for example, the world is in the grip of a pandemic. Scientists develop a vaccine for the pandemic in remarkably short order. However, people break into two clusters over the vaccine. Cluster 1 says "you must get two vaccine doses, that will give you great protection!". Cluster two says, "this is a rushed and untested vaccine, don't take any doses, it could be dangerous!" So I go for the mean solution, and get just one dose. Big error. One of the two clusters is correct here...in fact the mean is a certain loser. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 When this goes over the benchmark, we will all call it the navgeorge storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Go Kart Mozart said: No I have been posting this for a while, the mean is greatly misused. Let me give an example of the Golden Mean Fallacy: Let's say for example, the world is in the grip of a pandemic. Scientists develop a vaccine for the pandemic in remarkably short order. However, people break into two clusters over the vaccine. Cluster 1 says "you must get two vaccine doses, that will give you great protection!". Cluster two says, "this is a rushed and untested vaccine, don't take any doses, it could be dangerous!" So I go for the mean solution, and get just one dose. Big error. One of the two clusters is correct here...in fact the mean is a certain loser. I understand and agree with what you mean about the clustering; I am saying that there has only been a western cluster since 12z yesterday, at least on the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I was nervous about it, but DT seemed to just discount the OP due to ensembles. Man do you worship that clown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yea, they evntually chased, but originally they were much different from the OP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: When this goes over the benchmark, we will all call it the navgeorge storm. Hell, might even completely whiff this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Man do you worship that clown Not at all what I said. I simply expressed what he said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: No I have been posting this for a while, the mean is greatly misused. Let me give an example of the Golden Mean Fallacy: Let's say for example, the world is in the grip of a pandemic. Scientists develop a vaccine for the pandemic in remarkably short order. However, people break into two clusters over the vaccine. Cluster 1 says "you must get two vaccine doses, that will give you great protection!". Cluster two says, "this is a rushed and untested vaccine, don't take any doses, it could be dangerous!" So I go for the mean solution, and get just one dose. Big error. One of the two clusters is correct here...in fact the mean is a certain loser. Sometimes that works out, sometimes it doesn't. Often times there is somewhat of a compromise....ie degree of phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Not that it is a reliable source ( I don't think ), but the Navgem was way east and out to Sea!! lolol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Snowcrazed71 said: Not that it is a reliable source ( I don't think ), but the Navgem was way east and out to Sea!! lolol it's a terrible model with zero continuity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, JC-CT said: it's a terrible model with zero continuity 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I almost treat it as more of a change in trend WRT time. Not necessarily what they have 6 days out or whatever. See what the trend is with the ensembles. It also helps seeing the members. When a large cluster looks like the op in a setup like this, lean back. So what's the trend here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Not that it is a reliable source ( I don't think ), but the Navgem was way east and out to Sea!! lolol That’s a good sign considering how far west the Canadian and European guidance were and although it’s a very underrated model it does have a SE bias. Great start to the 12z guidance! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: So what's the trend here Am I assuming the bottom is the oldest run and top newest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: Am I assuming the bottom is the oldest run and top newest? What model is it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, JC-CT said: What model is it GEFS? No idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Big hit on NAVGEORGE ©Go Kart Mozart 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, MaineJayhawk said: Big hit on NAVGEORGE ©Go Kart Mozart thats 6z. 12z is close to a clean whiff, just clips eastern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Am I assuming the bottom is the oldest run and top newest? Yes sir GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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