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Monitoring a potential important TV to East Coastal storm: Jan 17


Typhoon Tip
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  On 1/12/2022 at 4:48 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea I know what you meant. I wonder if we toss the SE outliers though if the mean would track up the hudson. 

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Well that's why as I mentioned this morning, I usually just look at the individual LP centers and do a rough median/mean of those in my head, rather than look at the actual mslp. Kind of an ensemble of positions, rather than mbs.

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  On 1/12/2022 at 4:41 PM, CoastalWx said:

Ukie is poop. eastern PA to Albany. 

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I know the ski areas definitely need base but I would almost take all rain over 6 inches of snow changing to rain.

it’s still an odd track so I suppose we could still see this cut all the way to Buffalo. A little more sampling to ingest tonight so maybe we get a better idea of which systems will be stronger or weaker and perhaps get our coveted tug east to save the interior. 

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The outcome seems simple actually. 

Friday's system could've acted like a 50/50 had we had some sort of block up north. 

It could've created enough confluence to have the following system shift east. 

At this point I'm hoping Monday's storm shifts further west and introduces a wave breaking event that will plunge the NAO and give us a much better setup next week. 

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  On 1/12/2022 at 4:53 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I know the ski areas definitely need base but I would almost take all rain over 6 inches of snow changing to rain.

it’s still an odd track so I suppose we could still see this cut all the way to Buffalo. A little more sampling to ingest tonight so maybe we get a better idea of which systems will be stronger or weaker and perhaps get our coveted tug east to save the interior. 

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Unless this really goes west I don't think ski country is in any danger.  Everyone could use a nice heavy water content snowfall and a refreeze to create a more sustainable base in the woods.  It's all about the base! 

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  On 1/12/2022 at 4:57 PM, Go Kart Mozart said:

If we were in Dubois PA we would be on tenterhooks, waiting for Lucy to pull the football away.  Things look dismal now, but it is very rare for a forecasted track to remain set-in-stone over five days...Does that mean Cleveland should be getting ready?  Maybe.

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Well, it doesn't have to stay set in stone...it could go from Albany to Berkshires lol

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  On 1/12/2022 at 5:08 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Can we talk about how utterly useless the ensembles appear to be right now? All they have done is slowly chase the OP on all 3 major suites.

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I believe that the ensemble mean is nearly useless.    Do a Google of the Golden Mean Fallacy.  The clusters give the best hints, and there was always a significant west-clusterF.

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