Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 2:24 PM, JC-CT said: When did I throw in the towel? Expand "Which can still be a decent event, but not what it could have been for SNE." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 If the 12z suite unexpectedly goes west today, this place will need to be shut down 1 1 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 2:32 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: lets stop the trend. Expand how? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 2:36 PM, Torch Tiger said: how? Expand Another semantical sodomist. Hopefully the trend stops today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The antecedent airmass is pretty decent, so if this could track somewhere not through New York State, it would probably start as a plowable event for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Here's a way to stop the trend....stop looking 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supernovice Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 2:36 PM, Torch Tiger said: how? Expand I'm going to count to three...everyone face east and blow out of their mouths as hard as they can... ok? 1-2-3. done- west trend stopped. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 2:36 PM, Torch Tiger said: how? Expand By tossing you into the gulf stream. 1 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 That is one of those obnoxious elements of this place.....when things are not going the way of cold and snow, so many people, whether they like the solution or hate it, scrutinize every word typed. Whether it be out of frustration, or trolling. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 2:42 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is one of those obnoxious elements of this place.....when things are not going the way of cold and snow, so many people, whether they like the solution or hate it, scrutinize every word typed. Whether it be out of frustration, or trolling. Expand There is no doubt if this was currently tracking over the benchmark, people wouldn’t be commenting how early it is and how we have to let it play out to see if the models shift 500 miles. This kind of rhetoric is a defense mechanism in the face of some very ugly solutions 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 2:42 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is one of those obnoxious elements of this place.....when things are not going the way of cold and snow, so many people, whether they like the solution or hate it, scrutinize every word typed. Whether it be out of frustration, or trolling. Expand light trolling...i thought your phrasing was humorous. Trying to will and hope the storm to go east is pretty funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 2:44 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: There is no doubt if this was currently tracking over the benchmark, people wouldn’t be commenting how early it is and how we have to let it play out to see if the models shift 500 miles. This kind of rhetoric is a defense mechanism in the face of some very ugly solutions Expand I think some would....there are those who legitimately employ sound logic, and others who utilize that as a defense mechanism, or aversion to reality if you will....I could have written my thesis for my MSW on this place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 2:44 PM, Torch Tiger said: light trolling...i thought your phrasing was humorous. Trying to will and hope the storm to go east is pretty funny Expand You know what I meant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Dangerous to extrapolate the nammy but the trough is very positive at hr84 as the low sits along the Miss river while the confluence above is fairly stout. DISCLAIMER: Just an observation. Nothing else. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 2:44 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: There is no doubt if this was currently tracking over the benchmark, people wouldn’t be commenting how early it is and how we have to let it play out to see if the models shift 500 miles. This kind of rhetoric is a defense mechanism in the face of some very ugly solutions Expand 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 2:48 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Dangerous to extrapolate the nammy but the trough is very positive at hr84 as the low sits along the Miss river while the confluence above is fairly stout. Expand Yeah NAM is world's different from the GFS at the end of the run....doesnt mean much yet, but it's better than having it shows something as amped or more amped. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 2:34 PM, Ginx snewx said: "Which can still be a decent event, but not what it could have been for SNE." Expand Selective perception. I clearly stated what it would take as within the realm of possibilities. But yes, my ending statement was in reference to what I consider the highest probability outcome at this point. I certainly never implied it was 100%. And it was predicated on a hypothetical that you presented. On 1/12/2022 at 2:13 PM, JC-CT said: What we've seen so far is a major correction. If we windshield wipe from here, we are talking about if/how much on the front end before the changeover, unless it ends up on the far east side of the "wipe." Which can still be a decent event, but not what it could have been for SNE. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 2:50 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah NAM is world's different from the GFS at the end of the run....doesnt mean much yet, but it's better than having it shows something as amped or more amped. Expand I'll take whatever I can get. Even the 00z EURO was a legit winter storm for most of us....just have the bleeding stopped, and salvage a respectable storm as we continue in a good pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 2:50 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah NAM is world's different from the GFS at the end of the run....doesnt mean much yet, but it's better than having it shows something as amped or more amped. Expand It looks like it would even head OTS imwo ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 You know it's bad when folks are using the 84hr Nam for positivity about the storm. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I just want a big storm and snow would be a bonus. Strong gales and a barometer under 29.00. That’s the stuff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 2:52 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It looks like it would even head OTS imwo ha. Expand Imagine if it even ended up a fish? LOL The weather weenie section at the Bill's stadium would be filled with nooses Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 2:53 PM, SnoSki14 said: You know it's bad when folks are using the 84hr Nam for positivity about the storm. Expand See. this is exactly what Ray and some are referring to. That is not what we are saying or thinking at all but thanks for reading in between the lines somehow... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 2:54 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Imagine if it even ended up a fish? LOL The weather weenie section at the Bill's stadium would be filled with nooses Saturday night. Expand I actually could see it, consistent with the model trends over the past 2 days. If it keeps hanging back in the southwest, there's a chance it just gets cut off completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 2:55 PM, JC-CT said: I actually could see it, consistent with the model trends over the past 2 days. If it keeps hanging back in the southwest, there's a chance it just gets cut off completely. Expand Hold it back and conserve it for the next one...delayed but not denied. Ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The 12z FV3 looks almost identical to the 6z GFS at the end of its run...is that a function of the way the model works, or is it giving the GFS support (over the NAM)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 As bad as the NAM is, its still like an ensemble member capable to spotting a trend....I honestly get a bit nervous sometimes when I see it super amped this close in, and that is the truth. Who would have thought the OP GFS would lead the amped charge on a coastal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 2:58 PM, JC-CT said: The 12z FV3 looks almost identical to the 6z GFS at the end of its run...is that a function of the way the model works, or is it giving the GFS support (over the NAM)? Expand I think GFS uses FV3 core. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 2:35 PM, Damage In Tolland said: If the 12z suite unexpectedly goes west today, this place will need to be shut down Expand Hey bro, your 1 to 3 coming back? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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