dryslot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I'd lock this up right now if we could, That's a great track on the 0z GEFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Ukie looked like it was heading somewhere near ack after 144h panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: At 5.5 days it sure can be ignored. There will be over a dozen and a half more runs showing something else before go time. Windshield wiper affect… It’s not the particular solution per say nor is it just one run. The trend has been nw for practically every model past several cycles. More corrections coming of course but don’t toss an inland runner idea at d5, that’s all. I’d probably toss bermuda lows though ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Tough to buy that this is the outcome this far out, Seen this change to many times just this year at a short lead time, Going to need a few more days to see if this continues then i will consider it. 100% agree. This has an eternity to go. So many more model runs, the fragile ones will be hanging by Thursday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s not the particular solution per say nor is it just one run. The trend has been nw for practically every model past several cycles. More corrections coming of course but don’t toss an inland runner idea at d5, that’s all. I’d probably toss bermuda lows though ha. Theres so much cold air in place and a massive high to the north, not buying that it just moves outta there like that. GFS sucks, I’m all in with the NAVY. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: I'd lock this up right now if we could, That's a great track on the 0z GEFS. There are a lot of inland runners though but nothing as far west as the op. Still, we know how the ens like to follow the op trend so they can certainly swing back se just as easily. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, wx2fish said: Ukie looked like it was heading somewhere near ack after 144h panel It is, Looked just east of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, George001 said: Theres so much cold air in place and a massive high to the north, not buying that it just moves outta there like that. GFS sucks, I’m all in with the NAVY. Retreating high and mid levels can torch your cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: There are a lot of inland runners though but nothing as far west as the op. Still, we know how the ens like to follow the op trend so they can certainly swing back se just as easily. It likes to move the same direction as the OP, But i'm not worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s not the particular solution per say nor is it just one run. The trend has been nw for practically every model past several cycles. More corrections coming of course but don’t toss an inland runner idea at d5, that’s all. I’d probably toss bermuda lows though ha. Lol…and 24 hrs ago it was a complete whiff. And we had folks yesterday saying there was nothing going on. And that the Friday system was gonna screw the pooch for the rest of January. Which was more utter nonsense. I feel you’re reading too much into one run..at a ridiculous long lead time. But that’s just my opinion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 WOR folk are shook..........lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Cmc cuts too fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, George001 said: Theres so much cold air in place and a massive high to the north, not buying that it just moves outta there like that. GFS sucks, I’m all in with the NAVY. 30 hours after Boston had its coldest temperature in 60 years it rained back in 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Lol…and 24 hrs ago it was a complete whiff. And we had folks yesterday saying there was nothing going on. And that the Friday system was gonna screw the pooch for the rest of January. Which was more utter nonsense. I feel you’re reading too much into one run..at a ridiculous long lead time. But that’s just my opinion. Nope. You haven’t looked at models then. It’s not just one run dude. Regardless, your reading too much into my interpretations. Model pbp is not a forecast or thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: WOR folk are shook..........lol. Not this one lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Cmc cuts too fwiw. To me nothing, But some follow it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 What's interesting in that GEFS run is that at hr132 most members are clustered near the mid Atlantic, while at hr138 they scatter from there all over the place. So much uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, dryslot said: To me nothing, But some follow it. I certainly wouldn’t want it crushing me at d5 ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Cmc cuts too fwiw. The low taking a track NNW makes no sense...not that we have not seen it before but its rare for SFC lows to want to go anywhere near the spine of the Apps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I certainly wouldn’t want it crushing me at d5 ha. I never jack even at go time, Never mind day 5 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 56 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Gfs keep slowing the initial sw. Toss that and GEM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nope. You haven’t looked at models then. It’s not just one run dude. Regardless, your reading too much into my interpretations. Model pbp is not a forecast or thought. I’m not worried one bit Luke. I’ve seen them all today. I’ve learned to not get too caught up in model flip flops at 5-6 days out. That’s all there is to that. Let’s see where we stand by Saturday. If it’s cutting then..then we cut. But No worries now. I realize you’re just analyzing this particular run. It’s all good. I’m not buying it at the moment. That’s my stance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The UK looks nice for the NYC and CT area, but probably a rainstorm for BOS south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, FXWX said: For those of you with the Kocin / Uccellini Northeast Snowstorms Volume II - The Card book available, check out the Feb. 15-17, 1958 storm. Very close surface and 500 mb match for the pre-storm 48 hours period onward to the day of the event. The result was widespread 9 to 16" amounts across SNE with a heavy deformation band of 20 to 36 inches running northeast across eastern PA, eastern NY on into srn VT / central NH... It was a slower mover than the upcoming event is likely to be, but good features analog match? Just looked at that...Surface and h850 look pretty reasonable, looks like the H500 feature didn't close off until the last panel (00Z 02/17/58) and sort of a merge/phase (?) with the H500 low over Hudson Bay. Right now...GooFuS and others are closing H500 contours earlier along the path. Something to keep an eye on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Toss that and GEM Agreed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 hours ago, dryslot said: Storms don't like tracking up the Appalachians just saying, A hugger i could see though. 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The low taking a track NNW makes no sense...not that we have not seen it before but its rare for SFC lows to want to go anywhere near the spine of the Apps Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: 30 hours after Boston had its coldest temperature in 60 years it rained back in 2016. N NH was near -40° on 1/14/99 and by evening the following day they were into the 30s and raining. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 14 minutes ago, dryslot said: It is, Looked just east of it. That’s slower too… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: The UK looks nice for the NYC and CT area, but probably a rainstorm for BOS south. The low is a bit se of Nantucket that would be snow all the way to the cape with the airmass in place imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, WinterWolf said: I’m not worried one bit Luke. I’ve seen them all today. I’ve learned to not get too caught up in model flip flops at 5-6 days out. That’s all there is to that. Let’s see where we stand by Saturday. If it’s cutting then..then we cut. But No worries now. I realize you’re just analyzing this particular run. It’s all good. I’m not buying it at the moment. That’s my stance. I like your stance, I do. I am leaning that way as well. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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