Monitoring a potential important TV to East Coastal storm: Jan 17

[Typhoon Tip]

 

Confidence grows for a moderate to major, low latitude transferring Miller B/ Miller A hybrid then  gets foisted up the coast as a "hook low" 

March 2017, 1986 'zyzygy' are examples.   I have seen the 12z GFS more proficiency in phasing - yes, that's possible too.     **This is a fluid outlook

*However* with such a high upside I feel monitoring is necessary..   I have seen this 12z GFS ... Feel the Euro cluster probably joins suit, but pending that ... confidence remains less than medium.  It's an important storm - how much impact and where, TBD.   

Concept history: This was suggestive several days ago and I was tempted to thread for exotic early coverage but there was/is too many moving parts at the time. System's been apparently blurred by frenzied S/W management in the various guidance, ...not to mention inherent uncertainty for that long lead -duh.  But now seems to be have come back at the far end of the middle range - when have we seen that sort of behavior.   Too early to characterize the event... but quick stab at it, fast moving lower latitude Miller -B/Miller A hybrid.  I think this has room to amplify sooner, and track further west ... and/or slow down some, but that's about as detailed as we can be for now.

The base-line circulation mode is one saturated with potential; a powder-keg merely capped by wave interference.  I warned this yesterday ( and the day before...) that we are essentially playing with fire having so much volatility that is being limited to exhaust due to wave-space contention.  Given just a modicum of breathing room in any modeling, and any one of these waves can become an equally handsome cyclone, with very little excuse to do so.  This signal had the better appeal/timing "cadence" with the super synopsis going back three days, when it was the D9-11 ( day after that last snow event).. now is D6-8, and she's more than less coming back in the GEFs... Feel we are in the early stages ( like right at zygote but ensuing -) for the 17th emergence and that other non-GFS will probably show in the future.  The 00Z GGEM actually already did in principle, although it's stretching the x-corrdinate and that takes it too far E and doesn't allow the same eventual phasing of the 06z GFS solution ( using the latter as a paragon).

The 06z EPS was a positive trend from 00z, and is likely also like the GGEM ...an early consensus contribution. I was nodding when I saw post mentioning the 'interesting 06z EPS mean' for the 17. This would be a different storm than the last if it works out...

The 00z GEFs numerical telecons are flagging a +1 --> -1 --> 0 modulation in the NAO over the next 10 days, the range of which is rather ideal... because anything lower and it scoots seaward underneath/suppressed.  Where's earlier phases/Lakes cutters are not really in the cards at all with this.  Meanwhile, the PNA aspect is in a postive mode albeit modest ..but climbing through the same period.  These altogether do not represent a bad scaffolding... The NAO and the PNA are in a modest teleconnector covergence here.

Of 24 of the 30 GEF's 00z members, I saw have SE U.S. to west Atl cyclogenesis, 7 of which were rather deep and far enough W.  This is the cluster trying to jump back on board in my opinion.  I the 12z appears to maintain, with positive trend, suggesting the member count in favor is growing.  When I saw this chart and compared it to the 00z, I was sold and it's time to thread.

The flow over the deep S-SE is relaxed prior to the arrival of this western ridge associated with some sort of at least transient +PNAP exertion, an exertion/aspect that I wonder may be also emerging - i.e., more. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Ginx's zyzygy senses are tingling

[PhineasC]

Wake me up on Friday if it's still hugging tight and not congrats E MA.

[Typhoon Tip]

This is of course a fluid outlook at D6+ - of course - so, one aspect as we set here looking at the horizon .. the operational GFS appears it would is pretty stretched westerly outlier compared to the ens mean/spread product I posted above.  Just sayn'

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Wake me up on Friday if it's still hugging tight and not congrats E MA.

... mm, it's an early visualization and I am not sure what/whom other sources Mets really agree with this, but ... I see this storm as giant compared to the last .. A  much much larger spatial layout/multi-regional impactor, which would probably be a more whole-scale east of the Appalachian cordillera contender.    Just so folks are aware. It's a higher density theta-e loaded type of transport, bringing heavy rain where rains, and heavy sagging weighty snow where snows, with coastal wind/tide - pending how fast it rides up...  

That's really the "type" of low... 

[Ginx snewx]

14 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Ginx's zyzygy senses are tingling

So much for me starting the thread  I said I would 10 days ago.......

[dryslot]

This could just be the tip of the typhoon too for this next one.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

So much for me starting the thread  I said I would 10 days ago.......

Looks like you got Tipped out of the gate.

[JC-CT]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

So much for me starting the thread  I said I would 10 days ago.......

start a new one and let democracy prevail

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

start a new one and let democracy prevail

Nah NBD 

[JC-CT]

GEPS have a bit of a hugger look

[Cyclone-68]

I just want a biblical “storm o’ the ages” precip type and NESIS rating TBD

[kdxken]

17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

So much for me starting the thread  I said I would 10 days ago.......

If it's an historic storm we will give you credit. If it sucks, we will rip on tip.

[JC-CT]

lol I didn't even realize the Euro was out to sea at 0z

[Typhoon Tip]

I don't mean the ZYZYGY storm as an outright analog ...just that the set up aloft remains me of a similar feed-in... Might be interesting to check out the analogs/CIPs ...once this thing is being picked up.  Bearing similarity isn't really a anolog necessarily ...heh. this is Jan 2nd 1987. It shows a partial phase with mid west larger mechanical low; as it descends, it encourages the flow ( and anything in it's amber) along and astride the EC, to tip N and move in that direction.  The "X" spawned a low in that vicinity and ended up pretty deep and large nearing ACK 24 hours later.

[JC-CT]

50 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Yeah...if the NAVGEM shows something similar, we can pretty much write it off east of the HRV

Almost exactly the same

[HoarfrostHubb]

30 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

So much for me starting the thread  I said I would 10 days ago.......

He did have some good juju for the last one...  I don't care who starts it as long as we get a storm.   

Hope that dog is doing well.  

 

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't mean the ZYZYGY storm as an outright analog ...just that the set up aloft remains me of the a similar feed-in... Might be interesting to check out the analogs/CIPs ...once this thing is being picked up.  Bearing similarity isn't really a anolog necessarily ...heh. this is Jan 2nd 1987. It shows a partial phase with mid west larger mechanical low; as it descends, it encourages the flow ( any anything in it's amber) along and astride the EC, to tip N and move in that direction.  The "X" spawned a low in that vicinity and ended up pretty deep and large nearing ACK 24 hours later.

That one was kind of a hugger too...not as inland as the GFS/GGEM solutions today, but that 1/2/87 storm went over the elbow of the cape and was a lot of slop for the coast....but not too far inland got croaked. That upper 495 corridor in particular got hammered....Pepperell to Harvard MA corridor had 18-24"...ORH area had over a foot as well.

[JC-CT]

Early in the run, but I have high hopes

[ariof]

Does the CMC usually get stuck at 96H?

[512high]

Tip brought me good luck on his last thread, I hope he does it again without any mixing/hope all get a nice Miller B( snow)

[JC-CT]

btw, 12z navgem is definitely good for some weenie fodder adrenaline

[dryslot]

Just now, JC-CT said:

btw, 12z navgem is definitely good for some weenie fodder adrenaline

Also good for one of these too.............

[JC-CT]

Just now, dryslot said:

Also good for one of these too.............

Weenie this

[Damage In Tolland]

46 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

So much for me starting the thread  I said I would 10 days ago.......

Angry ?

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't mean the ZYZYGY storm as an outright analog ...just that the set up aloft remains me of a similar feed-in... Might be interesting to check out the analogs/CIPs ...once this thing is being picked up.  Bearing similarity isn't really a anolog necessarily ...heh. this is Jan 2nd 1987. It shows a partial phase with mid west larger mechanical low; as it descends, it encourages the flow ( and anything in it's amber) along and astride the EC, to tip N and move in that direction.  The "X" spawned a low in that vicinity and ended up pretty deep and large nearing ACK 24 hours later.

I remember that event as a kid...got about a foot in Wilmington with some pingers mixed in at the height, but only brief.

[Typhoon Tip]

24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That one was kind of a hugger too...not as inland as the GFS/GGEM solutions today, but that 1/2/87 storm went over the elbow of the cape and was a lot of slop for the coast....but not too far inland got croaked. That upper 495 corridor in particular got hammered....Pepperell to Harvard MA corridor had 18-24"...ORH area had over a foot as well.

Yup... remember it vividly... I had moved from Rockport Ma., to Acton Ma ( Family relo ) the previous year. 

I remember the night before it struck, it was 38. Acton Mass.  The air actually carried the aroma of rain, which I thought was interesting as we were headlined/warning for snow.   That storm is the only storm that I ever recall before, or since, that snow parachutes like 8/10 of the time.  18" of 'em, too.  The last 6 hours of it was light snow and more powdery.  At the height of the storm, visibility was 1/4 mi, with giant aggregate balls going side ways in winds vaguely audible inside when gusting.  I remember seeing them some times smash into pieces when they hit the wires and tree branches...  It was weird and exotic, and really ... was the first, first-hand experience I had with New England winter storms ... as I was still just a three years in as newbie to New England as a young teen - western Mich is like a colder drier variant of this climate, here. It was the first storm that also matched the legends I'd been hearing about since arriving to this region at the time.

[JC-CT]

I like what I see, I think

[JC-CT]

[dryslot]

Just now, JC-CT said:

She ain't whiffin this run.