Jan 14-15th Hybrid Winter Storm

[hawkeye_wx]

The Euro now has much of eastern Iowa in the 6+" snow.

[cyclone77]

32 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The Euro now has much of eastern Iowa in the 6+" snow.

Good luck, hope you guys can get a warning event out of this.  

Tonight's runs give hope we can muster a few inches out of this, which would be a pretty big win after many of the runs previously.

Getting overdue for a dog here.  Last 7"+ event was back in Nov '18.  Max event during 19-20 was 5.8", max event for 20-21 was 6.3", max so far this season 5.0".  

[Radtechwxman]

4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Good luck, hope you guys can get a warning event out of this.  

Tonight's runs give hope we can muster a few inches out of this, which would be a pretty big win after many of the runs previously.

Getting overdue for a dog here.  Last 7"+ event was back in Nov '18.  Max event during 19-20 was 5.8", max event for 20-21 was 6.3", max so far this season 5.0".  

I feel this. Tough seeing these close misses. Hopefully we luck out next month. 

[cyclone77]

5 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I feel this. Tough seeing these close misses. Hopefully we luck out next month. 

The worry is that we've been close to areas that are cashing in, and eventually those areas will finally get screwed.  Hopefully ma' nature doesn't screw us too in the process.  

[Baum]

final call .7

[A-L-E-K]

DAB

[Cary67]

88.27 degrees gonna pay dividends. 0.9"

 

 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Snow started shortly after 5 this morning. Well ahead of the 8-9am start time pegged by the nws. 

[Baum]

feel for the (western)Ohio folks. Instead of a winter storm watch they have a suicide watch.

[Baum]

1 hour ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Snow started shortly after 5 this morning. Well ahead of the 8-9am start time pegged by the nws. 

over performer on the table.

[ChiTownSnow]

2 hours ago, Baum said:

final call .7

Hopefully it covers up the mud at be least

[SchaumburgStormer]

Hoping for a few mood flakes

[Owensnow]

Well...

 

 

I have to say, I thought SEMI and NW OH and myself were going to see a re-curve with this one.  Odd natured beast to say the least.  Although this winter has been anything but normal so far.  I think we have had maybe 7 inches so far, most of that coming in NOV and Early Jan.

 

It looks as though we are out of the running for any significant southern storm track systems for some time to come.  That would likely leave us with one of the most snowless Dec-Jan periods I can recall.

 

Come on now, throw us a few bones mother nature!

[Baum]

I'm guessing the new NAM didn't up my back yard totals to 4-6".

[CheeselandSkies]

Here goes...central-western IA/northern Plains peeps enjoy.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0066.html

[cyclone77]

Models have dried up some here on the east side of the system.  Looks like 0.5-1.5" nuisance event.  Pretty lame.

[Dustin]

4 hours ago, Baum said:

feel for the (western)Ohio folks. Instead of a winter storm watch they have a suicide watch.

Rough for sure, but even worse are the parts of the MO boot heel that the GFS had ranging from 20 to 30 inches a few days ago that are looking at an inch or two now. 

[Chicago Storm]

Models have dried up some here on the east side of the system.  Looks like 0.5-1.5" nuisance event.  Pretty lame.

easy over. nothing reliable is that low there.


.

[Natester]

Hawkeye (and others) is going to have a hard time shoveling this snow since it's very wet in nature.

[Radtechwxman]

ILX extended wwa east last night to account for higher snow amounts being shown and now 12z runs looks like crap. I will be lucky to crack an inch probably. 

[iBrian]

Buddy in Nashville under Winter Storm Watch for 3-7". 

Third such totals for them in the past 2-3 weeks.  Dahel??

!

[madwx]

flurries starting here.   hoping to get enough to freshen up the remaining snowpack

 

[Roger Smith]

Any chance of locally heavy snow squalls in E-NE winds in Chicago, Milwaukee regions? I was just looking at the temps near the high, generally in the -30s. The feed of frigid cold as the low develops to southwest could pull in very cold air over Lake Michigan by this afternoon and overnight. 

[hawkeye_wx]

29 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Models have dried up some here on the east side of the system.  Looks like 0.5-1.5" nuisance event.  Pretty lame.

The model average precip for you is 0.25".

[Snowstorms]

@blizzardof96 Any preliminary thoughts on this storm for us? 

Subtle differences in the track could mean the difference between 5-10cm vs 15-20+cm. The 12z GFS trended west vs 00z GFS to be more aligned with RGEM. You can also put NAM in that bucket too. The RGEM at 54hrs is more pronounced with the main energy and digs the energy across the midwest more than the NAM. This plays a key role later on and the difference becomes more apparent at 66hrs. Still a lot to iron out. One thing that could really amp up totals for Toronto is where the defo band sets up. I remember it well during the Feb 13 storm. Many places saw 30+cm (12"). 

Not super confident yet. I think models could still flop flop through 00Z tom. 

[Ottawa Blizzard]

1 minute ago, Snowstorms said:

@blizzardof96 Any preliminary thoughts on this storm for us? 

Subtle differences in the track could mean the difference between 5-10cm vs 15-20+cm. The 12z GFS trended west vs 00z GFS to be more aligned with RGEM. You can also put NAM in that bucket too. The RGEM at 54hrs is more pronounced with the main energy and digs the energy across the midwest more than the NAM. This plays a key role later on and the difference becomes more apparent at 66hrs. Still a lot to iron out. One thing that could really amp up totals for Toronto is where the defo band sets up. I remember it well during the Feb 13 storm. Many places saw 30+cm (12"). 

Not super confident yet. I think models could still flop flop through 00Z tom. 

This kind of reminds of the January 16-17, 1994 storm.  That storm gave about 8", or 20 cm, to Toronto. It was preceded by extremely cold weather on the 15th and 16th. 

[Snowstorms]

4 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

This kind of reminds of the January 16-17, 1994 storm.  That storm gave about 8", or 20 cm, to Toronto. It was preceded by extremely cold weather on the 15th and 16th. 

I was born a couple months later to remember it . This storm at the surface level is similar to the Dec 10-11, 1992 storm. That storm packed a punch for us. Most places in Toronto saw 15-20" (38-50cm) with some close to 2 feet. I'm not sure if you can remember that? 

[Ottawa Blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

I was born a couple months later to remember it . This storm at the surface level is similar to the Dec 10-11, 1992 storm. That storm packed a punch for us. Most places in Toronto saw 15-20" (38-50cm) with some close to 2 feet. I'm not sure if you can remember that? 

I definitely can! I was in Grade 7. One of the biggest snowstorms of my life. Initially they had been calling for 15cm (6") and we ended up getting close to 40 cm (17")! Some friends of ours were part of the cast of Joseph and his Technicolour Dreamcoat, and they got stranded downtown after the performance and had to be put up in a hotel. 

 

[Brian D]

22 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Similar over this way with around 4" through tomorrow afternoon.  Persistent ne/ene flow will keep light snow going through Saturday it appears, with additional light accums also.  If not for the extremely dry air and few other negating factors, would probably see some decent amounts... However there's always a sneaky surprise somewhere and my area is prime with a ne flow.  Something to watch.

 

A weak band set up around midnight last night, very light snow for a while. A little heavier just N of Duluth, then it sank south of me. Started up again here early this morning. More of a popcorn LES event today. Snow squalls moving through every few minutes. Yeah, the dry air mixing in is hampering development, along with higher pressure, so not seeing an organized, solid band. 3" reports have come in along the path, but hard to tell in town because the wind is blowing it around. ENE at 20-30 with dry, fluffy snow. Whiteout when the heavier bands move through.

[Snowstorms]

9 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

I definitely can! I was in Grade 7. One of the biggest snowstorms of my life. Initially they had been calling for 15cm (6") and we ended up getting close to 40 cm (17")! Some friends of ours were part of the cast of Joseph and his Technicolour Dreamcoat, and they got stranded downtown after the performance and had to be put up in a hotel. 

 

That's awesome. I will have to check that film out then. 

This storm was powerful Nor'easter. It's not talked about enough but this storm is definitely a top 10. Ironically a few months later the March 1993 storm happened but was a bit too far east for us. I don't know where I can find a radar reanalysis of this storm but would be pretty cool to see.