weatherbo Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 hours ago, Brian D said: And I will end up with an LES event from this set up. Very cold air running parallel at the surface and mid levels (ENE) with a bullseye on my area. Exact placement determines if it's 1" IMBY or 6". It should make its way down towards Duluth during the day, as winds turn more NE. They maybe undercasting the snow down that way, especially downtown area/Superior, but since it'll be afternoon by then, streamers usually peter out some as the day warms, so I guess we shall see what happens. Similar over this way with around 4" through tomorrow afternoon. Persistent ne/ene flow will keep light snow going through Saturday it appears, with additional light accums also. If not for the extremely dry air and few other negating factors, would probably see some decent amounts... However there's always a sneaky surprise somewhere and my area is prime with a ne flow. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, KokomoWX said: What have I done to anger the weather god? Mother nature def trolling the det/chic crew. What angers me the most is the east coast isnt supposed to cash in la ninas lol. We never cash in their nino seasons, or im not totally sure if we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Nice eastern shift of snow axis on 18z nam. Brings eastern fringe of snow shield a lot more east than before 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 both NAMs showing some nonzero Lake Effect potential here, they have been known to oversaturate lower levels so will be waiting and seeing with this one but a nice refresher of snow cover would be nice heading into next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 These totals on the NAM 12k are way overdone. I would say toss. The 18z NAM 3k has more realistic totals and placement of the snow axis. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Keep the east shift going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Keep the east shift going We're gonna luck our way in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: 6z lake effect mood dust watch Top 3 event of the year 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 10 minutes ago, mimillman said: Top 3 event of the year if only this were sarcasm not fact. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 that's why it's funny 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 28 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Keep the east shift going can always count on the 18Z NAM. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 New winter weather advisory stops 5 miles west of here lol. Despite the 18z NAM weenie run I'm still gonna be a scrooge and say we get shut out. Very well could be a situation where we get zilch while the QC gets 3-4". Good chance at a sharp cutoff on the eastern edge. If it ends up being that close I'm blasting west into that shit tomorrow evening lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 DVN just issued a winter weather advisory for Cedar Rapids, expecting 4-6". I'd be happy with that. This would be my third 3-6" event of the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said: DVN just issued a winter weather advisory for Cedar Rapids, expecting 4-6". I'd be happy with that. This would be my third 3-6" event of the season. *insert eye roll and intense death glare* mad jelly. Hoping for a few more east shifts but not holding my breath. Ha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 57 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: *insert eye roll and intense death glare* mad jelly. Hoping for a few more east shifts but not holding my breath. Ha Plumbers are coming Monday to put in a new water line. I'm hoping this snow will be somewhat fluffy so I can use a leaf blower to uncover all the locator markings they plotted today and tomorrow. My luck sucks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, StormChaser4Life said: *insert eye roll and intense death glare* mad jelly. Hoping for a few more east shifts but not holding my breath. Ha Going with the cut off looks like ILX has you nearer the 4" mark than 1", on the higher end of the spectrum. Normally I'd be rooting for the GFS, but have to hope for the Euro so I can get back to work Tuesday with running water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Been super busy with work and family life the past week and haven’t had time to visit this weather board….but man am I sweating the gradient tomorrow. The NWS official forecast for Minneapolis is 1-5” and I gotta say that’s probably about as refined as you can get with the eastern cutoff basically imby. Hoping to get at least an inch to make up for the snow that melted/compacted yesterday. 2” would be great, while those on the west end of Lake Minnetonka probably end up with 5” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 16 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said: Plumbers are coming Monday to put in a new water line. I'm hoping this snow will be somewhat fluffy so I can use a leaf blower to uncover all the locator markings they plotted today and tomorrow. My luck sucks 7 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said: Going with the cut off looks like ILX has you nearer the 4" mark than 1", on the higher end of the spectrum. Normally I'd be rooting for the GFS, but have to hope for the Euro so I can get back to work Tuesday with running water. Man that sucks. Well I hope a dry bubble forms around you I know this isn't my storm. After it shifted west days ago I knew it wasn't coming back. But still hoping maybe I can get a nice band to park over me and luck out. But not holding my breath. Think 1-2in is more likely and think there is a ceiling albeit low for 3-5in if everything worked our perfectly but not expecting that. Models tend to underestimate dry ne flow so wouldn't be shocked if I get nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Here's the LSX AFD for those in eastern MO and west central iL. FXUS63 KLSX 132351 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 551 PM CST Thu Jan 13 2022 .SHORT TERM... (Through Saturday Night) Issued at 259 PM CST Thu Jan 13 2022 ...Winter Storm on track for Friday Afternoon-Saturday... It`s currently the calm before the storm across the CWA with lots of sun and above normal temps. The pockets of light rain across parts of eastern MO and western IL exited by early afternoon with clouds clearing quickly. This evening looks pretty tranquil with colder air filtering into the region as high pressure settles southeastward. Much of the latest guidance is showing a fairly strong signal for low stratus and fog developing overnight from central IL west-southwestward into western IL and parts of eastern MO. In fact some of the guidance suggests that the fog could be dense in the 10-15z time frame. I am not that confident in the dense fog aspect but it is something we will have to watch. The remainder of Friday morning should be rather tranquil with clouds thickening ahead of the winter storm. All systems still appear go for a winter storm impacting the area starting Friday afternoon and lasting possibly into early Saturday evening. This will be the first real widespread snowfall impacting the entire CWA. There are still some questions on amounts and onset times but the majority of the guidance suggest that snow will develop sometime in the afternoon across Northwest Missouri and west central IL in response to isentropic lift, weak large scale forcing, and impressive mid level frontogenetic forcing. This should lead to a rather robust and wide band of snow driven strongly by frontogenesis. The band should then widen and translate slowly south-southeastward on Friday Night and into Saturday morning as both the frontogenesis and large scale forcing attendant with the upper trof/low centered in the Plains digs southeastward. The mid level lapse rates are 6+ DegC/km suggesting a good response to the frontogenetic forcing and supporting snowfall rates in excess of a half inch per hour at times. While there could be some brief rain at the onset of snow for areas from central MO into southwest IL and points south, I still think that this should be brief with low levels cooling rather quickly. This will be a fairly wet snow with lower than normal SLRs. The longevity of the snow in the north and intensity of the forcing still highlights this region for the highest amounts. The WPC forecasts, HREF, and probabilistic guidance all support this area having potential for 6+ inches. We have decided to issue a winter storm watch for this area starting on Friday afternoon. For the remainder of the area this looks like a pretty solid 2-5 inch snowfall and will eventually lead to an advisory within the next 12-18 hours. There has been some concern about a period of heavy snowfall late Saturday afternoon/night into early Sunday morning across southeast MO/southern IL associated with the upper low and deepening cyclone as it tracks to our south. The trend in the latest ensemble and deterministic models now has the upper low digging longer and to the east of the track yesterday, and not bottoming out until Saturday night well south across the lower MS Valley and then shifting east across the deep south. This track would suggest this snow threat then will be well south of the CWA. Glass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Weenie 0z HRRR snow total map (kuchera). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, Natester said: Weenie 0z HRRR snow total map (kuchera). The trend today is to expand the snow farther east through eastern Iowa. Cedar Rapids was wobbling on the sharp cliff edge this morning. Now we're solidly into 4-6+". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 47 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The trend today is to expand the snow farther east through eastern Iowa. Cedar Rapids was wobbling on the sharp cliff edge this morning. Now we're solidly into 4-6+". The 00z NAM, 3kNAM, and FV3 all have 6-8" here. They even have 3-4" eastward to Cyclone's backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said: The 00z NAM, 3kNAM, and FV3 all have 6-8" here. They even have 3-4" over to Cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 No shit, I'm actually really excited about my 1 inch prospects Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: No shit, I'm actually really excited about my 1 inch prospects How far we've fallen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 From DVN: UPDATE ISSUED AT 809 PM CST THU JAN 13 2022 18Z GUIDANCE, SPECIFICALLY THE NAM BRINGS MORE SNOW ACCUMULATION FURTHER EAST. DIVING INTO THE DETAILS OF WHY THIS HAPPENS AND WHAT WE NEED TO SEE IN 00Z GUIDANCE TO SEE IF THIS IS A FLUKE OR A TREND FOLLOWS. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IN THE 18Z NAM RAMPS UP FROM 21Z TO 03Z AND DROPS CLOSE TO 3/4 TO ONE INCH AN HOUR FOR A FEW HOURS. THIS IS WHAT INCREASE THE EASTERN SNOW TOTALS. LOOKING TO FORCING, THE OMEGAS IN THE DGZ PEAK EARLY IN THE NAM, 15 TO 21Z AND THEN FALL THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. TRUE WE GET COLDER, BUT WE SEE MORE CLIMO SNOW RATIOS AT THIS TIME. THIS EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS DON'T SEEM TO BE TIED WITH THE HEAVIER AXIS SHIFTING EAST, AS MUCH AS ADDITIONAL SNOW THERE. THE CLIPPER AND BETTER CVA ARE WEST OF THE AREA, WHERE MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY HAD THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. THE NBM HAS TRENDED EAST WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO TO TOTALS, LIKELY FROM THE 18Z GUIDANCE. THE 00Z NAM IS STARTING TO COME IN AND IS BACKING OFF ALL SO SLIGHTLY FROM THE 18Z WITH EASTERN AMOUNTS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON 00Z GFS ALONG WITH ENSEMBLE DATA, WHICH CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CORRECT. WHILE THE DIFFERENCES HERE ARE AMOUNTS, THE IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO BE UNCHANGED UNLESS WE CAN SEE 1+ INCHES AND HOUR AND DRIER SNOW BLOWING AROUND. WITH WET SNOW TO START, ONE WOULD THINK THAT THE CURRENT SNOWPACK WOULD BE MORE STICKY TO THAT THAN DRIER SNOW. 00Z GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY ENSEMBLES WILL HELP FINE TUNE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z HRRR IS IN AND, WHILE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE 18Z NAM, DOES HAVE MORE SNOW EAST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD POINT TOWARDS A POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF THE WARNING EAST BY ONE COLUMN OF COUNTIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 ...While there could be some brief rain at the onset of snow for areas from central MO into southwest IL and points south, I still think that this should be brief with low levels cooling rather quickly... 0z Nam and other short term guidance has been keeping surface and lower levels warmer in St. Louis area compared to previous runs. I'd like to see what other runs show but I'm worried about the assumption of quick cooling in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 slip sliding in play 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 hours ago, Malacka11 said: No shit, I'm actually really excited about my 1 inch prospects I wish I was better known on this forum for a quip back 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said: I wish I was better known on this forum for a quip back I just realized the dangerous territory I strayed into 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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