Radtechwxman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Lock in 21z rap and 18z hrrr. Ha. If only. Fantasy land for them. Wishcasting 101 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 hours ago, StormChaser4Life said: Obviously long range HRRR not reliable but find it interesting it has the sfc low and snow shield significantly farther east than global models. Definitely something to keep an eye on. Probably typical long range HRRR being overamped type of deal. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Powerball said: Probably typical long range HRRR being overamped type of deal. Unfortunately probably. But I can dream right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, StormChaser4Life said: Lock in 21z rap and 18z hrrr. Ha. If only. Fantasy land for them. Wishcasting 101 The 21z RAP has rain in western Iowa where every other model has 8" of snow. I wish it was correct, but it's garbage. The HRRR and RAP will correct southwestward tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 12 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The 21z RAP has rain in western Iowa where every other model has 8" of snow. I wish it was correct, but it's garbage. The HRRR and RAP will correct southwestward tomorrow. Yeah I'm sure it is. They are definitely too east. But I also think globals may be underestimating eastward extent of snow band. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 15 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The 21z RAP has rain in western Iowa where every other model has 8" of snow. I wish it was correct, but it's garbage. The HRRR and RAP will correct southwestward tomorrow. never forget the 16" in Cedar Rapids on the last storm! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 39 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The 21z RAP has rain in western Iowa where every other model has 8" of snow. I wish it was correct, but it's garbage. The HRRR and RAP will correct southwestward tomorrow. Can't win them all as they say. Yeah, RAP is a toss. I would also like to point out that the 18z NAM 3k shuts out Cedar Rapids, which wouldn't be surprising lol. Got lucky with the January 1 storm, can't be lucky twice in a row. EDIT: Just checked the forecast snow totals on the 18z RGEM for eastern Iowa. Has several inches of snow in Cedar Rapids (likely way overdone). I would think that 2-3 inches is more realistic although it's still 36 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 0z NAM better for cyclone and Iowa peeps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 hours ago, StormChaser4Life said: Unfortunately probably. But I can dream right? Don't worry, just had the main waterline to the house bust. My bad luck will be your good luck, east it will come because I need it west now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 hybrid = wild ride. buckle up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The V is expanding again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Can't get over how far ne rap/hrrr are with low and wintry precip. Almost bring rain into my area. Definitely overdone but makes me wonder if hi res will catch on to a possible slightly more easterly shift and possibly north shift. System comes on shore late tonight. Should have full sampling tomorrow so hopefully will help with model data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Can't get over how far ne rap/hrrr are with low and wintry precip. Almost bring rain into my area. Definitely overdone but makes me wonder if hi res will catch on to a possible slightly more easterly shift and possibly north shift. System comes on shore late tonight. Should have full sampling tomorrow so hopefully will help with model data. I'm not even asking for much, just not a complete shutout. I never really considered this to be even a medium-dog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: I'm not even asking for much, just not a complete shutout. I never really considered this to be even a medium-dog Same here man. We are both living on the edge right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: Same here man. We are both living on the edge right now It be like that man. Our dream unites us... one day we'll all cash in together again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 expect big changes today: "IS STILL OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NW AND WILL JUST BE GETTING BETTER SAMPLED BY THE RAOB NETWORK TODAY." =Quad cities AFD 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6z lake effect mood dust watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 the HRRR corrected back SW to fall in line with the other models 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Less than 30hrs out from the event now, and the models range from nothing to 4" here. Precip shield will prob struggle against dry flow from the east/northeast, so I'm gonna guess that we receive nothing. Interestingly some models have shown a few lake effect snow showers making it this far southwest. It's pretty rare, but it has happened before. A few evening lake effect flurries may be the highlight of this 'event' here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 13 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Less than 30hrs out from the event now, and the models range from nothing to 4" here. Precip shield will prob struggle against dry flow from the east/northeast, so I'm gonna guess that we receive nothing. Interestingly some models have shown a few lake effect snow showers making it this far southwest. It's pretty rare, but it has happened before. A few evening lake effect flurries may be the highlight of this 'event' here. I wouldn't be surprised if Cedar Rapids got nothing from this, to the dismay of hawkeye_wx, hlcater and myself. Very unlikely that would happen though, but I'm only expecting 2-3 inches here but the globals forecast more than that (except the Euro). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 time to close this thread. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Pain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, sbnwx85 said: Pain. Sucks really bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 What have I done to anger the weather god? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 20 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Pain. 12z Euro caved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Now that the Euro has nudged back east this morning, I'm solidly within the 3-6" area on nearly all models. It's still a sharp edge, though, so any west or east nudge matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 32 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Pain. The Bermuda Triangle of Snow. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 And I will end up with an LES event from this set up. Very cold air running parallel at the surface and mid levels (ENE) with a bullseye on my area. Exact placement determines if it's 1" IMBY or 6". It should make its way down towards Duluth during the day, as winds turn more NE. They maybe undercasting the snow down that way, especially downtown area/Superior, but since it'll be afternoon by then, streamers usually peter out some as the day warms, so I guess we shall see what happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 47 minutes ago, Spartman said: 12z Euro caved. Yep! I went from 9" a couple days ago to nada. .again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said: Now that the Euro has nudged back east this morning, I'm solidly within the 3-6" area on nearly all models. It's still a sharp edge, though, so any west or east nudge matters. Must be nice. Lol. You're going to score solid on both winter storms so far this year. I'm forever riding on the edge here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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