burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Wow. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Cut totals in half that's still an 8-12 inch snow storm for much of the state. If the GFS was correct I think these numbers would be higher. That is a storm and and a half there. Now we need the Euro to catch on. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Great PBP Burger. Thank you. What an epic run for the region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, burgertime said: Just look at this thing of beauty. https://i.imgur.com/uyppCnw.mp4 Thats the way I would draw it up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguysc Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Correct me if I'm wrong, but the blue circle I drew around the dark pink snow...is that thundersnow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, Beach Snow said: 6z is mainly rain from Triad East. low is further west than 0z These storms usually get the job done for the coastal areas at it pulls away. My guess would be the GFS starts moving further south each run and the Euro meets in the middle. So this could be a run that might pan out. This is THE look you want for everyone in the state. Lots of other states get in on the action as well. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 13 minutes ago, weatherguysc said: Correct me if I'm wrong, but the blue circle I drew around the dark pink snow...is that thundersnow? With this setup you'd see thundersnow across much of the state. Again grain of salt all that but if this is a solution then a large swath of the state would be under heavy snow and blizzard warnings. Given the cold air in place and the placement of that low RDU west would be getting some big ol heavy flakes. If only I didn't have a business to run and had an extra 3k in the bank for an emergency flight 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: Thats the way I would draw it up. Yep, always when we're on the outside looking in....but hey you got sun and waves. All I got is cold barren trees to look at. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguysc Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Temps at 4am Tuesday morning...That's cold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Also this is just pure speculation but I've found with these big wound up storms you tend to get a low tracking behind it as nice little bonus a day later. So we could see two rounds. Something to look for a day or two before the storm. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, weatherguysc said: Temps at 4am Tuesday morning...That's cold. It's likely it could be colder IF of course the 00z and 6z are right. Too good to be true all that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 9 minutes ago, burgertime said: Yep, always when we're on the outside looking in....but hey you got sun and waves. All I got is cold barren trees to look at. Still hoping to get that way sometime. Might get a chance soon. I hung up the spurs in Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 GEFS see's the system further south than the 00z run. Also has a stronger low off the coast. Can't wait to see what the 12z Euro has to say. I'll bet it makes a jump today. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: Still hoping to get that way sometime. Might get a chance soon. I hung up the spurs in Nov. You gotta free room and a tour guide 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Can't afford to see much more amplification than what the GFS depicts. Which is why the Euro is good news. The only other model in the GFS camp is the icon, so I think the full range of outcomes is still on the table 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 GSP's long term discussion from this morning. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...As of 300 am EST Tuesday: Friday will provide a brief lull betweensystems as a shallow ridge sets up between a departing shortwavetrough and the next major system amplifying over the northernPlains. We are trying to keep our excitement in check for theweekend system given the spread evident in the operational modelsand ensembles. Uncertainty remains high, but there are trends towardgreater confidence in at least some wintry weather affecting much ofour region over the weekend.The setup will include a zonally-oriented 850 mb baroclinic zoneatop our region just north of the old frontal zone Friday night.This could well provide a focus for moist upglide redevelopingquickly across the area Friday night into Saturday. Subfreezing 850mb temps would permit wintry ptypes at onset in most areas, withmainly snow in the northern tier and possibly a light wintry mixfarther south as profiles wet bulb down. Meanwhile, the deepeningupstream system will dive southeast through the central CONUS thefirst half of the weekend and amplify west of the Appalachians. Run-to-run and model-to-model consistency issues abound, with theoperational GFS now much deeper with an H5 low tracking across theDeep South Saturday night. The ECMWF and Canadian camps depict moreof a positively-tilted open wave crossing the forecast area. Thecommon factors include fairly cold profiles already in place anddecent potential for moisture return ahead of the amplifying system.The main difference is that the ECMWF/CMC solutions would be aquicker hit/shorter duration, which would limit wintry accumulationsa bit more.The GFS, on the other hand, exhibits a far more dynamic southernclosed low position, bringing the heart of its moisture and forcingover the cold air in place Saturday night through Sunday. In fact,the 850 mb low center track on the GFS is perfect for record settingsnowfalls across our region. This solution has the surface lowtracking through southern AL/GA along the frontal zone Saturdaynight and deepening over the SC coastal waters on Sunday. Inaddition, frontogenesis would be robust atop our area in this case,and a lobe of negative EPV crossing the region would even suggestsome potential for thundersnow. However, it`s important to note therecent consistency issues with the GFS runs, and the fact that theGEFS plumes have plenty of spread. Still, the prudent course is toto start featuring the system in the HWO given the potential foraccumulating snowfall.The upper system will depart late Sunday, but with lingeringnorthwest flow snowfall quite possible along the spine of thesouthern Appalachians. Additional height falls may occur back to thewest over the Ohio River Valley on Monday. This early week systemappears a bit more moisture starved, and it seems the betterdynamics will pass north of our forecast area. However, additionalscattered snow showers will be possible in the mountains followingthe wave passage late Monday given the northwest flow upslopemoisture in the residual cold air. Yup!! “fact, the 850 mb low center track on the GFS is perfect for record setting snowfalls across our region. “. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
85snowline Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 53 minutes ago, burgertime said: Also this is just pure speculation but I've found with these big wound up storms you tend to get a low tracking behind it as nice little bonus a day later. So we could see two rounds. Something to look for a day or two before the storm. For those that are robbed by the warm nose during "main" event... the upper level low the next day becomes the main event very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 Glad to see the GFS hold serve and show another crush job for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 hour ago, burgertime said: You gotta free room and a tour guide I have an attic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 53 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Can't afford to see much more amplification than what the GFS depicts. Which is why the Euro is good news. The only other model in the GFS camp is the icon, so I think the full range of outcomes is still on the table Agree. GFS overamping and Euro pushing south right now means a solution in the middle will be good for everyone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: I have an attic. I've got one too...but if you came here you'd have to sleep on the roof. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 hour ago, burgertime said: @129 it's about to blow. Coming across the southeast. Once it makes that turn... 1 hour ago, burgertime said: @135 BOOM! SE plastard! Total snowgasm. This is gonna be an epic run. Let's all pray its the one lol. 1 hour ago, burgertime said: Just look at this thing of beauty. https://i.imgur.com/uyppCnw.mp4 This is soooooooo hawt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Love the improvement 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 6z Euro run looks better at 500mb compared to the 00z run. Is a little faster and doesn't have as much separation with the northern stream. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: This is soooooooo hawt Reminds me of my old profession 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 @burgertimebeen following the Icon on this. It’s the model that digs the least just fyi. 0z Canadian made a huge jump toward the GFS. Curious to see what the 6z did but I don’t have access to that. I can’t remember the last time a Manitoba mauler did this. Been a long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Def a little west of where you’d like it for the Triangle. Lots of CLT and Greenville SC folks on here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 10 minutes ago, burgertime said: 6z Euro run looks better at 500mb compared to the 00z run. Is a little faster and doesn't have as much separation with the northern stream. It does 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: @burgertimebeen following the Icon on this. It’s the model that digs the least just fyi. 0z Canadian made a huge jump toward the GFS. Curious to see what the 6z did but I don’t have access to that. I can’t remember the last time a Manitoba mauler did this. Been a long time Here it does extremely well in the 84 - 100 hour range but is a bit useless beyond that. 6z looked to me like it's starting to cave to the GFS too just doesn't know it yet lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 The 06z euro is making more baby steps towards the gfs and now it's only slightly north (and now closed off) to match the closed off energy in the plains the gfs had. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now