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Jan 15-16 Winter Storm

Brick Tamland

By Brick Tamland,
in Southeastern States

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PackGrad05

PackGrad05

Posted
Posted

My forecast for Wake County, particularly southern Wake.  
 

Precipitation will begin around 6-7 AM Sunday morning. This will begin as snow/sleet. There is only a 20-30% chance of 1" of snow for our area. I predict a dusting to maybe half inch of snow.
It will quickly transition to mostly freezing rain with maybe some sleet mixed in. This will last until around 12-1PM and then it transitions to just rain. Rain will continue until 7-8PM. There could be some flurries later at night as the back end of the system passes through with wrap-around cold air, but this wouldn't affect anything.
Impacts: Sunday morning will definitely be the time period to watch. As the sleet/freezing rain falls, it will accrue on power lines, trees, and roads. There will be some limbs/trees that come down as well as power outages. Travel will be very hazardous and I don't recommend going anywhere Sunday morning unless you absolutely have to.
After lunch, conditions will improve as our temperatures goes above freezing and things start thawing. However, it will still be very messy with steady rain and lingering ice.
Expect a refreeze Sunday night into Monday morning as temperatures dip slightly below freezing.
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msuwx
msuwx

It’s weird to me how this board can be lit up like a Christmas tree analyzing the Day 8 NAVGEM, but now that a major storm is about to hit many, many people in the region, the post frequency tails off

BullCityWx
BullCityWx

I finally got my password right 

ILMRoss
ILMRoss

Some thoughts...  - I try to keep a sunny disposition on here because at the end of the day this is a lighthearted forum and not some emergency management network. That colors my thinking and I'd

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sarcean

sarcean

Posted
Posted

The Charlotte area is going to be hit really bad by ice. There could be a few hundred thousand without power if it verifies. Most of the older neighborhoods of the city close to the urban core are extremely tree filled and it won’t take many of them to cause a large disruption for days.

im going to ride this one out in Black Mountain near Asheville where I can enjoy a all essentially all snow event and not deal with ice and power loss.

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Prismshine Productions

Prismshine Productions

Posted
Posted
Nice discussion from CAE
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...Impactful winter storm set to impact the northern half of theforecast area, bringing with it widespread freezing rain and gustywinds.=======================  SYNOPTIC SET UP=======================Challenging forecast is on tap across the forecast area as we getinto this period, with a potential ice storm developing lateSaturday night and Sunday morning across portions of the forecastarea. Synoptically impressive event will be taking shape andoverspreading the area, as a sharp & positively tilted 500 hPatrough digs into the lower MS Valley at the beginning of thisperiod. Deepening moisture in the atmosphere will be noted aheadof this by increasing cloud cover across the FA. Meanwhile,convergence across the Mid-Atlantic region will foster thesouthward ridging of a strong Canadian high pressure system. Asa result, surface wedging will develop during the day onSaturday and continue to build into the region via cold airadvection and northeasterly flow Saturday night. This willcontinue to take shape through the night as a surface lowdeepens along the Gulf Coast and moves south of this wedge. Inaddition to some cold air advection noted with the wedge, drylow-level air is expected to push into the region, with surfacedewpoint depressions of ~8-12F in place by 1a Sunday.Impressive forcing for ascent is expected to push into the regionbetween 1a and 4a. Of note will be a developing dual upper level jetstructure, with the FA placed underneath the coupled right-entranceregion and exit region of 250 hPa jet streaks. This will result in astrong response in the 850 hpa jet, with a 50+ knot low-level jetpushing over the region Sunday morning. Strong isentropic lift willoverspread the region as a result, and precipitation will blossomover the region after 1a Sunday. The surface low is expected toapproach and pass through/around the region (depending on thestrength of the surface wedge) by 1p on Sunday. As this interactswith the wedge, a strong surface pressure gradient will developbetween 4a and 10a on Sunday, and should result in gusty winds. By1p on Sunday, the mid/upper level closed low will begin to take on anegative tilt and push to the north and northeast of the area, witha dry slot likely ending widespread precipitation from south tonorth on Sunday afternoon. Some light showers may persist intoSunday evening, but these aren`t likely to result in widespreadissues.=======================  MESOCALE DETAILS=======================As previously outlined, this is a challenging forecast across theregion. Evening guidance has shifted slightly warmer with thesurface wedging, while morning/midday guidance yesterday wasslightly cooler with it. This back and forth is making the forecastdifficult, especially in the areas that area closest to thefreezing line in the central Midlands. There are some things tokeep in mind today as we approach this event:1. Models still seem to be struggling with the strength of thewedge. This is usually the case with wedging events, and it isusually underestimated. It is leading to lower confidence in howtemperatures will play out. If the wedge is stronger, morefreezing rain can be expected further south. If weaker, the areaof freezing rain will shrink northward.2. Dewpoints will be important watch as we get into this afternoonand tonight. Models are split on this, but the lower the dewpointsget ahead of this, the more evaporative cooling potential we willsee when precip quickly increases across the region. Slight differencescan make a large impact and can be illustrated by looking at the HREFand NAM. The HREF has lower dewpoints at precip onset and resultsin a more widespread & significant event. The wetbulb temperaturewill be key in where the rain/freezing rain line eventually setsup.3. Temperatures are expected to rise above freezing across the area,starting between 8a and 10a across the central Midlands, and thenbetween 10a and 12p across the northern Midlands. The CSRA andsouthern Midlands will likely remain above freezing for the bulk ofthe event.4. Precipitation rate will likely be heavy, and this will have animpact on overall ice accumulation efficiency. As previouslymentioned, synoptic scale ascent is very impressive in the 4a to 1pSunday timeframe. With PWs approaching 175-200% of normal, this willresult in moderate to heavy rainfall. This is expected to keepfreezing rain accumulation lower than the overall forecast QPF maysuggest otherwise.All of that being said, this event is going to come down to somenowcasting later today and tonight. This is going to be a tightforecast across the central Midlands. Forecast soundings have adeep warm layer, indicating that rain to freezing rain back torain is the likely P-type progression. The time spend withfreezing rain is unknown, but highest confidence in a longduration freezing rain event is across the northern Midlands.Model guidance should continue to get a clearer and betterpicture through the day today, but with a forecast as tight asthis one will be, watching observations is going to help clearup a lot of the uncertainty that we have right now.=========================== EXPECTATIONS/CONFIDENCE===========================Current areas in headlines look good for now. We will keep the IceStorm Warning unchanged, even if some sleet may mix up there at theonset of precipitation. Will transition Winter Storm Watch areas toa Winter Weather Advisory for now, and expand the advisory one tierof counties south to account for possible light accumulations ofice. Expect 0.20"-0.40" of ice accumulation in the Ice Storm Warningarea, with 0.01"-0.20" of ice accumulation in the Advisory area.Timing of greatest impacts & freezing rain looks to be from 5athrough 9a across the Advisory area, and 3a to 11a across theWarning area. Trees and powerlines are expected to be strained bythe ice accumulation, which may result in some down tree limbs andpower outages. Be prepared for potential power outages,especially in the Ice Storm Warning area. Confidence iscertainly highest that the Warning area will see highest iceaccumulation, with confidence lower across the Advisory. Thereis too much uncertainty at this point to justify upgrading to awarning, though that could be necessary if some of the coolermodel guidance verifies tonight. Keep abreast of the latestforecasts today!

Yep, I'm in the WWA too...

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

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Buddy1987

Buddy1987

Posted
Posted

Nam imo made some important steps at 500 between 21-27 with not pumping heights as much compared to 6z and a subsequent track a bit to the east with the secondary. Issue is it still wants to drive that LLJ up over the majority of us if you want an all snow type event and also drive the primary further north than some of the other guidance. That’s something I’ll be monitoring but it is a good step in the right direction to blend in with what the globals have been spitting out for days. 

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NEGa

NEGa

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Current temp 36 with a dew point of 29. What I am really liking is the wedge is coming in and it’s obvious lol. There is quite a ne wind right now.  Usually when a storm is a complete bust I don’t  notice the wind before hand. This morning it is quite noticeable yay

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oconeexman

oconeexman

Posted
Posted
Just now, NEGa said:

Current temp 36 with a dew point of 29. What I am really liking is the wedge is coming in and it’s obvious lol. There is quite a ne wind right now.  Usually when a storm is a complete bust I don’t  notice the wind before hand. This morning it is quite noticeable yay

My sentiment exactly. Up to 39 with thick cloud deck and stout ne breeze. Obvious cad rolling in at the perfect time.

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, NEGa said:

Current temp 36 with a dew point of 29. What I am really liking is the wedge is coming in and it’s obvious lol. There is quite a ne wind right now.  Usually when a storm is a complete bust I don’t  notice the wind before hand. This morning it is quite noticeable yay

I think NE GA above 2000-2500 feet is going to do very well.  

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