ncgolfguy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, msuwx said: It’s weird to me how this board can be lit up like a Christmas tree analyzing the Day 8 NAVGEM, but now that a major storm is about to hit many, many people in the region, the post frequency tails off. Is it because the storm isn’t producing pure snow for many? Eastern NC getting the short end of the stick? To me, this is pretty easily the most significant winter storm, per capita, in a few years. To me this is a weird time for the models the long range are getting out of their wheelhouse but the short range and mesoscale hadn’t really come into their wheelhouse I think it will light up more overnight and tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 This was one of the top CIPS analogs for this system: https://projects.ncsu.edu/atmos_collaboration/nwsfo/storage/cases/20100129/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, msuwx said: It’s weird to me how this board can be lit up like a Christmas tree analyzing the Day 8 NAVGEM, but now that a major storm is about to hit many, many people in the region, the post frequency tails off. Is it because the storm isn’t producing pure snow for many? Eastern NC getting the short end of the stick? To me, this is pretty easily the most significant winter storm, per capita, in a few years. Activity will pick up. We're in the in between, where models are pretty locked in, but we're not yet now casting (radar hallucinations and hyperventilating over every HRRR run). I do think the prospect of 2" of sleet is pretty exciting TBH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 14 minutes ago, burrel2 said: It is what it is. Both January 2011 and February 2014 had a warmnose/sleet line push through as well. Both immediately after the frontogenical band moved through. Both were great snow events anyways. )except Feb 2014 for Pickens bc we got screw holed on the fronto band). my point being if we hold on to snow until the dry slot gets close and rates decrease… who cares! We got our dumping! Especially considering it’ll be mid 20s afterward so it’s not getting washed away or anything Yep and the wraparound from the ULL will be approaching from a slightly better angle than with those storms, and should have a good shot of ending with a nice burst of powder I'd think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, msuwx said: It’s weird to me how this board can be lit up like a Christmas tree analyzing the Day 8 NAVGEM, but now that a major storm is about to hit many, many people in the region, the post frequency tails off. Is it because the storm isn’t producing pure snow for many? Eastern NC getting the short end of the stick? To me, this is pretty easily the most significant winter storm, per capita, in a few years. I think it's simply because most of NC isn't getting pure snow, and half the posters are from here. They checked out and are looking for the next storm. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, burrel2 said: I think north of 85 in SC is looking good for 4-8 inches of snow. My confidence level for that is pretty good all things considered. 8-12 possible north of hwy 11 and 10-12+ in the sc mountains above 1500ft. Great thoughts. Im N 35 miles north hwy 11. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, msuwx said: It’s weird to me how this board can be lit up like a Christmas tree analyzing the Day 8 NAVGEM, but now that a major storm is about to hit many, many people in the region, the post frequency tails off. Is it because the storm isn’t producing pure snow for many? Eastern NC getting the short end of the stick? To me, this is pretty easily the most significant winter storm, per capita, in a few years. It’s likely because a significant part of the posting population is not in the 5-6” snow/sleet zone (CNC/ENC) and will probably just have some zr if not plain cold rain and just can’t even anymore. I get it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, snowmaker13 said: This was one of the top CIPS analogs for this system: https://projects.ncsu.edu/atmos_collaboration/nwsfo/storage/cases/20100129/ I noticed when checking analogs for areas from SC back across GA/AL there are no great matches really. All cases where the low was closed or semi closed the cold air source with the 500 low was way less...there were not expansive sub 0C 850s as there are in this case. 12/9/89 and 2/26/04 were the closest examples with 12/9/89 being closest but the 500 low was fairly open 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 41 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Euro is just an absolute crush job for north east Georgia and the northwestern upstate,sc. it starts ripping snow around midnight and the warm nose doesn’t move through until the dry slot arrives around 7-8am. I have seen that and it’s hard to believe lol. Honestly in n ga I usually expect at least a period of a mix or change to sleep or ice. I would love to top 6” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, msuwx said: It’s weird to me how this board can be lit up like a Christmas tree analyzing the Day 8 NAVGEM, but now that a major storm is about to hit many, many people in the region, the post frequency tails off. Is it because the storm isn’t producing pure snow for many? Eastern NC getting the short end of the stick? To me, this is pretty easily the most significant winter storm, per capita, in a few years. I know right. I am really getting excited now since I will admit i enjoy all types of winter precip and a big winter storm is about a day away. Maybe everyone is resting getting ready to be up a while lol 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigerchick224 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I think north of 85 in SC is looking good for 4-8 inches of snow. My confidence level for that is pretty good all things considered. 8-12 possible north of hwy 11 and 10-12+ in the sc mountains above 1500ft. I would love to be used at Caesar’s Head for this event. We are in TR about ten minutes south of 11 and I’m banking on at least 6”. We have a huge hill in front of our house my 4 y/o has been itching to sled down. I always root for my friends south of 85, buddy once again, it is the battleground of the Upstate.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Tigerchick224 said: I would love to be used at Caesar’s Head for this event. We are in TR about ten minutes south of 11 and I’m banking on at least 6”. We have a huge hill in front of our house my 4 y/o has been itching to sled down. I always root for my friends south of 85, buddy once again, it is the battleground of the Upstate. . Lol...not sure if this was worded correctly. 3 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I noticed when checking analogs for areas from SC back across GA/AL there are no great matches really. All cases where the low was closed or semi closed the cold air source with the 500 low was way less...there were not expansive sub 0C 850s as there are in this case. 12/9/89 and 2/26/04 were the closest examples with 12/9/89 being closest but the 500 low was fairly open That's good! Does that mean this could be more snow than 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 9 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: I think it's simply because most of NC isn't getting pure snow, and half the posters are from here. They checked out and are looking for the next storm. Most of NC= Raleigh 7 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSO_WX Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The NAM 3km snowfall map (Ferrier rime correction) is probably the only map with the right amount of correction for sleet. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 16 minutes ago, msuwx said: It’s weird to me how this board can be lit up like a Christmas tree analyzing the Day 8 NAVGEM, but now that a major storm is about to hit many, many people in the region, the post frequency tails off. Is it because the storm isn’t producing pure snow for many? Eastern NC getting the short end of the stick? To me, this is pretty easily the most significant winter storm, per capita, in a few years. Just the Raleigh crowd. Mtn thread is lit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigerchick224 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Lol...not sure if this was worded correctly. Lol! I am playing with my son and I call him “buddy,” so I guess I typed it when I said it. my bad!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 58 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said: People need to prepared for significant power outages in the piedmont http://www.usawx.com/icesto3.jpg I strongly disagree with this. IMO the Triad proper will see much more sleet and much less ZR because of the CAD keeping the 850's at or below freezing during the entire event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 44 minutes ago, Snow dog said: Wow! Def a western Carolina's / N GA storm! Where are all these posters??? Right here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Pretty scary map here -- 12z Euro 850 temps at 9 a.m. Sunday morning, with plenty of QPF piling up. 2m temps around 26 in CLT at this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Most of NC= Raleigh No, besides the mountains, most of NC is not getting pure snow. Most of NC will get sleet, freezing rain, and rain if the forecast is right. I usually do better than Raleigh with snow because I am further north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 12z Euro ensembles bumped snow totals in around the Asheville and Boone vicinity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, snowmaker13 said: 12z Euro ensembles bumped snow totals in around the Asheville and Boone vicinity. Map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I see the euro held serve 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 18z HRRR still well further south with the ULL ... stronger but unchanged in position vs 12z. This is the year the HRRR puts out the ultimate coup! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Raleigh crowd is so sick and tired of a meaningless novelty glaze of ice to 34 degrees and miserable cold rain that they have nothing left to say about it on a weather forum. I’m just here for the rest of y’all and the fact this is still a major storm even if my backyard looks like a prison soup Sunday afternoon 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, buckeyefan1 said: I see the euro held serve mind posting CLT? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, BornAgain13 said: Map? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, beanskip said: Pretty scary map here -- 12z Euro 850 temps at 9 a.m. Sunday morning, with plenty of QPF piling up. 2m temps around 26 in CLT at this time. Really scary for anyone buying clown snow accumulation maps outside the mountains… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Can you spot the wedge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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