Brick Tamland Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 Euro looked like it went a lot further south this time around. Gives it time for that NW shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguysc Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 GSP's long term discussion from this morning. Quote .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 am EST Tuesday: Friday will provide a brief lull between systems as a shallow ridge sets up between a departing shortwave trough and the next major system amplifying over the northern Plains. We are trying to keep our excitement in check for the weekend system given the spread evident in the operational models and ensembles. Uncertainty remains high, but there are trends toward greater confidence in at least some wintry weather affecting much of our region over the weekend. The setup will include a zonally-oriented 850 mb baroclinic zone atop our region just north of the old frontal zone Friday night. This could well provide a focus for moist upglide redeveloping quickly across the area Friday night into Saturday. Subfreezing 850 mb temps would permit wintry ptypes at onset in most areas, with mainly snow in the northern tier and possibly a light wintry mix farther south as profiles wet bulb down. Meanwhile, the deepening upstream system will dive southeast through the central CONUS the first half of the weekend and amplify west of the Appalachians. Run- to-run and model-to-model consistency issues abound, with the operational GFS now much deeper with an H5 low tracking across the Deep South Saturday night. The ECMWF and Canadian camps depict more of a positively-tilted open wave crossing the forecast area. The common factors include fairly cold profiles already in place and decent potential for moisture return ahead of the amplifying system. The main difference is that the ECMWF/CMC solutions would be a quicker hit/shorter duration, which would limit wintry accumulations a bit more. The GFS, on the other hand, exhibits a far more dynamic southern closed low position, bringing the heart of its moisture and forcing over the cold air in place Saturday night through Sunday. In fact, the 850 mb low center track on the GFS is perfect for record setting snowfalls across our region. This solution has the surface low tracking through southern AL/GA along the frontal zone Saturday night and deepening over the SC coastal waters on Sunday. In addition, frontogenesis would be robust atop our area in this case, and a lobe of negative EPV crossing the region would even suggest some potential for thundersnow. However, it`s important to note the recent consistency issues with the GFS runs, and the fact that the GEFS plumes have plenty of spread. Still, the prudent course is to to start featuring the system in the HWO given the potential for accumulating snowfall. The upper system will depart late Sunday, but with lingering northwest flow snowfall quite possible along the spine of the southern Appalachians. Additional height falls may occur back to the west over the Ohio River Valley on Monday. This early week system appears a bit more moisture starved, and it seems the better dynamics will pass north of our forecast area. However, additional scattered snow showers will be possible in the mountains following the wave passage late Monday given the northwest flow upslope moisture in the residual cold air. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Sounds like GSP is leaning on the GFS which would is a good sign. 12z runs should be telling today. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Am I dreaming or did GSP say thunder snow? Somebody hold me. 5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 where is frosty at. He needs to chime in here. I don't live very far from him. We need a good snow here also. but guess we will wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ghicks said: where is frosty at. He needs to chime in here. I don't live very far from him. We need a good snow here also. but guess we will wait and see. If GFS is right then basically anyone in this very crudely drawn nightmare of a circle I've made will get a good snow. The coastal areas would also likely benefit as it pulls away. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 im located in nw nc mount airy. probably near where the 2 is located on your map near the va line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, Ghicks said: im located in nw nc mount airy. probably near where the 2 is located on your map near the va line Again if the GFS is correct you'll do fine. Bullseye if this was taken verbatim would be probably RDU to GSO. But statewide with this solution you'd be looking at 6 inches I'd have to guess with many along and east of I-85 getting 8+. Take QPF with a grain of salt..yada yada yada 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 6z is running. Let's see if the hot streak continues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 to me icon was more amped than last time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Better look on the ICON for sure. I haven't kept up but does ICON verify very well in the US? Even here it's mainly used for predicting weather for Germany and Scandinavian regions and best in the short range. It appears to be trending to the Euro/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 to be honest im not sure on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 GFS out to 36. My early guess is this may dig slightly more but looks very similar out west with the 00z with the initial setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Ghicks said: to be honest im not sure on that one. It's trying. This is the 00z run from last night. Good trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 6z looks interesting. Slightly faster than the 00z GFS, northern energy looks a little stronger. For sure gonna be closer to the previous 00z GFS than the Euro. Who knows where she lands though. Energy is dive bombing at 84. Next few frames will tell the tale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Dig baby dig. @93 it's slightly SW of the 00z run. Gonna get interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 @108 this thing looks like a beauty. On the surface maps it's a big bad storm incoming. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Big difference at 500mb vs the 00z is that it was a big cut off low. On the 6z it's not cut off yet. But it still looks like a monster setting up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 @111 it's cutting off. Let's go! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 @129 it's about to blow. Coming across the southeast. Once it makes that turn... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just look at this... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 @135 BOOM! SE plastard! Total snowgasm. This is gonna be an epic run. Let's all pray its the one lol. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 this play by play is awesome! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 @140 blizzard conditions across NC and parts of SC. This is ridiculous. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 euro says no gfs says hold my beer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Comparing the 00z and 6z the 00z is a little stronger but I like this cause it sinks a little further south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguysc Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, burgertime said: @135 BOOM! SE plastard! Total snowgasm. This is gonna be an epic run. Let's all pray its the one lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just look at this thing of beauty. https://i.imgur.com/uyppCnw.mp4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, burgertime said: Just look at this thing of beauty. https://i.imgur.com/uyppCnw.mp4 Thanks for the pbp burger. Just like it use to be! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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