HKY_WX Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Sir what do you feel like occurs up into SVA with that ULL? I know Disc alluded to the fact late last night he was concerned about the placement and setup but as of very late last night thermals still looked "ok" up this way. Roanoke looks safe from zr. Prob most snow to sleet to snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The RGEM runs the low directly over Raleigh, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, HKY_WX said: Roanoke looks safe from zr. Prob most snow to sleet to snow. Awesome thanks a lot. Feel like if we can get this to push in sooner like the GFS depicts over the NAM will "save us" from the dreaded pingers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, olafminesaw said: The RGEM runs the low directly over Raleigh, lol The RGEM is on some Hulk Hogan roids with this storm. By far the most amped and pumped up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Roanoke looks safe from zr. Prob most snow to sleet to snow. Hows Morganton/Valdese looking total wise for everything? @HKY_WX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: I think it's time people from Greenville, SC - Charlotte - Concord - Burlington start prepping for a high impact system (tree damage/extended power outages/etc). I know the snow is what people want, but there will massive power outages in that corridor. Still not sure how far east that will extend. The NAM seems to peak RDU's ZR around .4 to .5 which is enough for damage but not like .75-1.00 ... I hope I'm wrong and sleet saves the day. Yep, I'm headed out to Lowes shorty to stock up supplies. My house is surrounded by trees so I'm expecting lots of downed limbs and a few trees to fall. We lost power during the windstorm last week for nearly 1/2 day so I'm betting we lose it for longer this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Amos83 said: Yep, I'm headed out to Lowes shorty to stock up supplies. My house is surrounded by trees so I'm expecting lots of downed limbs and a few trees to fall. We lost power during the windstorm last week for nearly 1/2 day so I'm betting we lose it for longer this time. Smart. Mooresville might be far enough north for sleet to save the day and save you from zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 This seems to be pretty reasonable around here. A lot of warm rain. Holding out for my 0.001" of snow... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, wake4est said: This seems to be pretty reasonable around here. A lot of warm rain. Holding out for my 0.001" of snow... That's like 1 flake bro. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Bevo said: The light, lavender-ish band on that map (3"-6" Snow/Sleet) could stand to come south to where it would meet the top of the "M" in my opinion, but other than that it looks pretty damn solid. I always have to remember that most of this board doesn't live in the Frozone like me. Lyman is in the Narnia of SE winterland (NW SC). We tend to benefit more than a lot of people with these storms. This helps me understand the overwhelming number of frustrated posts for literally every winter storm thread. I get it - it makes sense. the middle of the "M" would be nice. The bottom of the "M" would be awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I am only a few minutes from Uptown Charlotte and absolutely surrounded by trees--my neighborhood has huge oaks surrounding every house with atleast 20+ trees within falling distance of my house. Powerlines run directly behind houses near trees, I am expecting a devastating ice storm with at the very least lost power for a few days. About to book a cabin in the high country near Boone and atleast enjoy some good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 20 minutes ago, wxduncan said: Hows Morganton/Valdese looking total wise for everything? @HKY_WX Really just depends on sleet. Could see anywhere from 4 to 10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Man this snow is going to come fast and heavy. Looks like Greenville & Asheville get 4-8" in the matter of 6 hours. Big winners look to be the Nashville metro though, 12-18" is a solid forecast to be honest at this point which is insane to even think about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 20 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said: the middle of the "M" would be nice. The bottom of the "M" would be awesome! Yeah - there's just no denying that WAA, especially as we get closer. Lyman is tucked strangely between the lee and where the snow line typically transitions. I'll still get the ice but for some reason just not quite as much as my surrounding areas. We're talking 1 mile of separation between mostly snow and mostly ice in most cases. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Pulling hairs, but 12z GFS looks to have everything ever so slightly South of 6z at hr 42 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Man this snow is going to come fast and heavy. Looks like Greenville & Asheville get 4-8" in the matter of 6 hours. Big winners look to be the Nashville metro though, 12-18" is a solid forecast to be honest at this point which is insane to even think about 12-18 for Nashville? That sounds really high. Where are you getting that from? I think 4-8 inches seems much more reasonable and it’s a bit higher than what is currently progged there by the NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, Bevo said: Yeah - there's just no denying that WAA, especially as we get closer. Lyman is tucked strangely between the lee and where the snow line typically transitions. I'll still get the ice but for some reason just not quite as much as my surrounding areas. We're talking 1 mile of separation between mostly snow and mostly ice in most cases. Boy that is the true for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 she's a beaut clark!@burrel2… Is it beaut because of the location / track of the LP?I know most here focus on NC, which I get… seems N GA (think Cherokee / Pickens County) gets a little left out, but I love learning about this stuff - we just have not had a lot of things to track recently for me to learn from. If I understand correctly, if the LP is further south, it is better for N GA, right?It basically matters where the moisture is in relation to the LP, right?. Pro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, jrips27 said: 12-18 for Nashville? That sounds really high. Where are you getting that from? I think 4-8 inches seems much more reasonable and it’s a bit higher than what is currently progged there by the NWS. Yes and the 850 low on the RGEM was just about 40 miles south of the 6z position while over Georgia. Within the model margin of error? Probably. But I've also seen life (and death) by paper cut where 4 straight 20-40 miles shifts suddenly turned into a game-changing trend for some folks. Worth watching when in places like my old stomping grounds, 10 miles can make all the difference with the sensible weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 GFS remains bullish for western NC. It hasn’t blinked yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, BooneWX said: GFS remains bullish for western NC. It hasn’t blinked yet. That's the model I would rely on at this point. It actually increased totals with the weak low and stronger high. NAM is a meso model and amps things up like crazy all the time. Think it's time for it to go the way of the DGEX at this point. Maybe some machine learning model to replace it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said: That's the model I would rely on at this point. It actually increased totals with the weak low and stronger high. NAM is a meso model and amps things up like crazy all the time. Think it's time for it to go the way of the DEGX at this point. Maybe some machine learning model to replace it. Look at the gradient there around CLT… tell me that’s not classic, Uptown 2-3” but step 30 miles N into Iredell you’ve got 6-8” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The crazy part to me is the surface looks worlds better at face value but if you go to 500 the ULL presentation hasn't really changed any and in all reality the GFS looks to have suffered some type of convective feedback related issue, as it focuses placing the "L" over that line of storms in the Atlantic. Regardless tho to @BooneWX point its another beat down for WNC into SVA and its been persistent for runs on end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: Looks about how I think this will shake out. Although I would cut freezing rain acreation in the jackpot zones in half Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: Looks about how I think this will shake out. Although I would cut freezing rain acreation in the jackpot zones in half I'm not sure about how much I'd cut the totals with temps in the 20's for the duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The worst is seeing the short range models like the HRRR show an awesome setup then trend to the global models. The 12z HRRR looks amazing at 48 hrs but it will without a doubt trend toward the rest of the models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said: I'm not sure about how much I'd cut the totals with temps in the 20's for the duration. Always cut totals. If temps are in 20’s there will be more sleet. If temps are near freezing it will not accumulate fast. The self-limiting nature of freezing rain is not modeled well and is always too high on every model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said: I'm not sure about how much I'd cut the totals with temps in the 20's for the duration. True, although I suspect heavier bands of precip will fall as sleet. FRAM for comparison 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The low cutting east across South Carolina then due north to DC is a CRAZY storm track and a huge middle finger to many of us especially the triangle 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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