weatherguysc Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, burgertime said: ICON has a really good look indeed. I think everybody would take that and run if it was all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Man I really hope that comma head band comes through and saves the day with a few quick inches for those outside the mountains in North GA. A lot of those areas in a real long snow drought. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Through 30, GFS looks stronger and a bit north with our ULL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Through 30, GFS looks stronger and a bit north with our ULL Looks the same as the 00z run to me. Maybe just a hair stronger out to 57. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6z gfs is an I-85 ice storm . Over 3/4 inch for KCLT, MBY (Gaston/Cleveland county line) gets close to 1 inch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, JoshM said: 6z gfs is an I-85 ice storm . Over 3/4 inch for KCLT, MBY (Gaston/Cleveland county line) gets close to 1 inch Looks to me like along I-85 probably from Spartenburg to Gastonia would be a raging sleet storm. That's maybe a bit of a saving grace. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, burgertime said: Looks to me like along I-85 probably from Spartenburg to Gastonia would be a raging sleet storm. That's maybe a bit of a saving grace. I sure hope so, 2002 flashbacks are coming to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Classic dry slot being modeled for parts of WNC. Still decent totals but someone’s gonna miss out on the big stuff because of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, westmc9th said: Classic dry slot being modeled for parts of WNC. Still decent totals but someone’s gonna miss out on the big stuff because of it Don’t really see it other than the French broad river valley per usual. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Don’t really see it other than the French broad river valley per usual. Is that Dry slot look to effect Morganton and Valdese. All these maps for snow totals have me confused. What do you guys think for my area totals? Given the map gradients. @Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 9z RAP is super bullish on the Northeast Georgia snow. It takes a southern track with the 5h low similar to the ukmet and hrrr. So for those counting in NE Georgia/Upstate SC we have: RAP,Hrrr(extrapolating), Ukmet, RGEM,CMC, Euro all showing solid front end thumps. GFS is too warm and the NAM/3kNAM are decent but less acumulations than the first group of models. ICON is also borderline. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Looks about the same as last night One of the best storms I had was back in '14 and while Aiken towards the coast ended up with a horrible ice storm, mby had a mix of everything that gave me about 4" that stayed around for a while. Hands down the best sledding ever. I taught all the kids on my small dead end street how to sled with various items laying around the yard Was it safe? No. Was it hours of awesome fun? Yes 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Don’t really see it other than the French broad river valley per usual. With the exception of the eastern escarpment the gfs has really backed off totals for western Piedmont and foothills. Hoping the icon can score a coup. Places like hickory are being modeled as 3-6” on most models now except the icon which is showing 12+. Pretty major difference. A storm of this size and track and western half of the state can only eek out 1” of qpf on this run?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 At hr 18 the 06z euro looks almost identical to 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I thought the GFS looked much better wrt track purposes. A bit east once it reaches the VA Beach area. Any tick helps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Came someone answer what the best way to look at current storm? For example could I look on a goes 16 satellite to see what it’s actually doing compared to what modeling said? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Nothing has changed at 51 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: Nothing has changed at 51 2 days ago we would have been celebrating the placement of the ULL on that map. What went wrong? Just look at the decrease in heights. Not too shocked to see blocking fail to materialize in a La Nina year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: 2 days ago we would have been celebrating the placement of the ULL on that map. What went wrong? Just look at the decrease in heights. Not too shocked to see blocking fail to materialize in a La Nina year ^^^ this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: 2 days ago we would have been celebrating the placement of the low ULL on that map. What went wrong? Just look at the decrease in heights. Not too shocked to see blocking fail to materialize in a La Nina year I'm still celebrating It's gone from a record hot December, to a dusting to 2" for a limited area from a clipper, to a miller a/b hybrid putting a lot more people in the game. Whatever falls, I don't really care because I haven't had any type of winter weather since '18 and have tracked for everyone else that has had frozen fun since then. Clowns 10 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said: I'm still celebrating It's gone from a record hot December, to a dusting to 2" for a limited area from a clipper, to a miller a/b hybrid putting a lot more people in the game. Whatever falls, I don't really care because I haven't had any type of winter weather since '18 and have tracked for everyone else that has had frozen fun since then. Clowns Dang that freezing rain looks nasty . Shows .98 in my area. Even if you cut in half that’s lights out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Nasty sounding fro Raleigh. Good to finally get some clarity on precip type, with the 3km NAM coming into range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigerchick224 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Snow totals going down and ice totals going up. That’s more along the lines of what I was thinking. I thought their first totals were a bit out to lunch. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 That sounding RDU from NAM appears to show the area below freezing for longer than anticipated. Not good for ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Yeah- 4.5” with .25 sleet sounds about right here. Just hope the fz rain can be avoided here, but I know someone will get it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Snow dog said: Yeah- 4.5” with .25 sleet sounds about right here. Just hope the fz rain can be avoided here, but I know someone will get it.. Sure Does and it so total win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Apologies if already posted, but he's one of the best snow forecasters out there IMO 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 NWS RAH seems to feel it will effectively be a non event for Raleigh itself. Around 0.1 inches and a inch or so of snow then rain. That seems the most reasonable as model output on ZR is almost always overdone. Enjoy the storm for those out west. Imma head out for now. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Buddy1987 said: I thought the GFS looked much better wrt track purposes. A bit east once it reaches the VA Beach area. Any tick helps Much better hit for WNC on that run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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