wncsnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, BooneWX said: Hate the look of that dry slot on the NAM in WNC. Hopefully there will be some back building but that can always be the fly in the ointment for these setups. What dry slot? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, wncsnow said: What dry slot? The one approaching SW NC in this frame 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I wouldn’t be shocked at all it NRN-CNTRL MS AL GA see fairly significant snows. That upper low is fairly strong. You don’t usually see a 500 low that strong without fairly significant snow somewhere. The NAM does show snows wrapping behind it but at this time it’s very light Yup. That's what I've been banking on...honestly the comma head on the NAM is impressive in MS. They're getting pounded on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, BooneWX said: The one approaching SW NC in this frame The flow around the ULL should bring in plenty of Atlantic moisture but I could see the western slopes getting less precip until the wrap around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 16 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Hate the look of that dry slot on the NAM in WNC. Hopefully there will be some back building but that can always be the fly in the ointment for these setups. It is a concern as normal in these situations. But the NAM showed upwards of a solid inch area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 30 minutes ago, wncsnow said: if you comoare to 18Z, there is more snow near Hickory to Statesville down to Shelby Also, I just noticed that WBTV moved the mostly snow line to the other side of the Catawba River. Seems like a good trend for that 321 corridor to avoid a major ZR disaster 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 RGEM coming in hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 14 minutes ago, BooneWX said: The one approaching SW NC in this frame I think the 12km's radar presentation matches this one well, and if you run it forward you see the main dry slot setup well east of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: RGEM coming in hot It's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtgus Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 22 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Wow! Most of Guilford county in the "Low" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: It's not. Track was little further south and it increased snow totals for N GA up to WNC, sorry it didnt for your area 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 43 minutes ago, wncsnow said: if you comoare to 18Z, there is more snow near Hickory to Statesville down to Shelby Oh no. We don’t talk about Bruno. Next… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 What’s the RGEM track record over the past couple years? It’s pasting the north Atlanta metro pretty good with that front end thump. Even more so than the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Seems like all of the models are really backing off totals for far western Piedmont and the foothills of NC. We’ve gone from 2” of liquid down to just over 1”. Not a good trend. Would have thought with a track like that we would have some much higher totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said: Seems like all of the models are really backing off totals for far western Piedmont and the foothills of NC. We’ve gone from 2” of liquid down to just over 1”. Not a good trend. Would have thought with a track like that we would have some much higher totals. Dry slot is intense in recent models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said: Seems like all of the models are really backing off totals for far western Piedmont and the foothills of NC. We’ve gone from 2” of liquid down to just over 1”. Not a good trend. Would have thought with a track like that we would have some much higher totals. Some models have gone up on totals but I dont think precip amounts are set in stone yet for specific areas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, jrips27 said: What’s the RGEM track record over the past couple years? It’s pasting the north Atlanta metro pretty good with that front end thump. Even more so than the Euro Largely inconsistent. You never know which events its going to do well and which it wont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 NWS GSP probabilistic forecast hasn’t budged on predicted high totals with their latest update at 9:30: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 ICON snow totals: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Looks a tick faster again on GFS through 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Looks a tick faster again on GFS through 33 HP looks to be pushing down on the storm a little bit more through 48 so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 No significant changes with the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Wow said: No significant changes with the gfs Yea pulling tiny hairs may be just a couple hours slower but same trajectory with that ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Wow said: No significant changes with the gfs I know everybody is hanging on every wobble (and that's a lot of the fun of it all), but the 30,000-foot view is worth mentioning -- this is quite remarkable model consistency over the past 36 hours or more. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 FWIW: 00z FV3 Hi Res as the storm moves in. I haven’t looked at this model all that much. Is it supposed to take the place of the Hi Res NAM eventually? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Saturday afternoon snow showers 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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