WxJordan Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Here is the link to the video I posted on Facebook that I uploaded to YouTube as well. I kept it pretty simple, so I am not sure if it would interest anyone, but I figured I would post the link. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suJFqvY2W5A&t=145s 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 If you are already comparing the NAM right now from the 18z, you need to relax. Step away from the computer. I also thought the shortwave looked a little bit weaker than the 18z at hour 15. 2 1 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: If you are already comparing the NAM right now from the 18z, you need to relax. Step away from the computer. I also thought the shortwave looked a little bit weaker than the 18z at hour 15. too late 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Theme of the models today is for a faster system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Theme of the models today is for a faster system. Def something all of us want to see as the HP will keep the cad locked in longer before sliding off to the east and will be in a better spot before precip arrives. Good obs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Closed off at 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Looks pretty similar to 18Z to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 If you guys are obsessed with over analyzing everything like me… go look at the 48hr hrrr and tell me what is going on with that random wave in the northeast that’s wrecked our high pressure and will probably lead to our storm not riding up the coast? Is it smoking crack or what? I haven’t seen that on any other modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 NAM is a bit faster .. not necessarily with the ULL center but the progression of the western ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Wow said: NAM is a bit faster ... trend continues I notice the trough is more negative tilted, is that anything to be worried about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, snowmaker13 said: I notice the trough is more negative tilted, is that anything to be worried about? I noticed that too. Hopefully it's won't cut more early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, burrel2 said: If you guys are obsessed with over analyzing everything like me… go look at the 48hr hrrr and tell me what is going on with that random wave in the northeast that’s wrecked our high pressure and will probably lead to our storm not riding up the coast? Is it smoking crack or what? I haven’t seen that on any other modeling. Looks like snow breaking out over central NC well before the storm which is not on any other model for that time stamp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Looks like snow breaking out over central NC well before the storm which is not on any other model for that time stampYup nice little finger of before the storm precip im definitely keeping an eye on it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Looks the same as the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 looks like we might get surprise in triad area Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Still a long way to go with this run. But my feeling is that if you are in a marginal area, you’re not going to enjoy the 00z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Oh you silly nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1003 mb low S of FL panhandle at 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: Still a long way to go with this run. But my feeling is that if you are in a marginal area, you’re not going to enjoy the 00z NAM. Do ppl ever use the NAM for anything except CAD Thermals? Seriously asking… although I will give it and HRR props…. Not everytime but if one of them start to toot the horn about something Bad I’d bank it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 This be a hybrid miller A/B here ... Precip shield is trended down to the TN/KY border at 54 hrs.. with the speed of the ULL we could turn the corner ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 hmmm starting to go neutral at 57 .. will be an inland track again but it's dug the base of the ULL even further south ... gonna be a lot of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Not a terrible run quite similar to 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I do see more snow in western piedmont this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Do ppl ever use the NAM for anything except CAD Thermals? Seriously asking… although I will give it and HRR props…. Not everytime but if one of them start to toot the horn about something Bad I’d bank it NAMs great for a lot of things; thermals, soundings (for both svr and winter), convection is modeled better. Higher resolution always helps. And it’s generally good to have as many models in your camp as possible. If you watch a a lot of football you may occasionally see an offensive lineman go down and the announcers will say “ohh man they’re going to miiiiiissssssss him”. And if he’s on your team, you may think “ah ok well it’s not the quarterback” but deep down you do get worried. Basically how I feel when the NAM or something similar is souring. Hopefully that analogy made sense. 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 if you comoare to 18Z, there is more snow near Hickory to Statesville down to Shelby 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 HiRes Nam only goes to 60 but looks pretty good and just getting started 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Here is another one of the NAM highres models that goes out 60 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I feel like we are beating a dead horse with this one.... the OPS have been squared away with this thing staying inland instead of off the coast... hard to see that changing this close to kickoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I wouldn’t be shocked at all it NRN-CNTRL MS AL GA see fairly significant snows. That upper low is fairly strong. You don’t usually see a 500 low that strong without fairly significant snow somewhere. The NAM does show snows wrapping behind it but at this time it’s very light 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Hate the look of that dry slot on the NAM in WNC. Hopefully there will be some back building but that can always be the fly in the ointment for these setups. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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