weatherguysc Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Chris Justus early call map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said: GPS Ens increased totals! Is that Cmc ensembles or GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Seems like regardless of track, the trend had been to reduce the size of the snow thump area at the leading edge. Why is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said: GEFS Well that looks better to me….at face value anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 C Is there a wedge boundary here that the low pressures are trying to transfer/bend around? Kind of hard to tell. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Here is te latest projection for my area, mostly sleet it seems http://coolwx.com/modelts/images/nam/current/KGSO/prec.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 18z GFS would dump 6-10 inches of snow here before warm nose/changeover to sleet, but the dang surface temperature is too warm that whole time. For some reason the GFS shows literally zero cold air advection from CAD, even though it's showing a 10-15 knot NE wind??? The temperature just hangs at 36-37 for four or five hours. Every other model has the temp rapidly dropping to around freezing and below as soon as precip starts. Here is a chart of Surface temps/Dew points and total qpf at 1:00am and 7:00am. Will be interesting to see how this verifies. I'm betting on the Euro/NAM/RGEM for surface temps. Clemson, SC 7:00 PM 1:00 AM total liquid 7:00 AM total liquid 18z gfs 41/32 37/36 .21 liquid 34/32 1.21 18z Nam 3k 37/32 32/29 .05 liquid N/A N/A 18z Nam 38/29 32/28 .02 liquid 27/23 0.57 18z RGEM 42/25 37/28 .01 liquid 29/27 0.65 12z Euro 41/32 35/31 .02 liquid 27/24 0.54 12z Ukmet 40/33 38/33 .00 liquid 33/33 0.11 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 @Disc what kind of timeframe are you seeing for snow to start. Late Sunday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I still can't get over these 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: I still can't get over these Only ONE of the GFS ensembles has me getting under eight inches? I’ll believe that when I see it. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said: I still can't get over these I do like the fact that the 18z GEFS looked better, at least up my way. Hadn't seen many positives today... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: I do like the fact that the 18z GEFS looked better, at least up my way. Hadn't seen many positives today... Too many live and die by each model turn and should enjoy the madness 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 30 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: @Disc what kind of timeframe are you seeing for snow to start. Late Sunday morning? I'd say between 7am-10am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 10 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: Too many live and die by each model turn and should enjoy the madness There is also a group that live and die by the icon and nam 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx n of atl Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I just released my first snow/sleet accumulation map this evening. Pretty much in line with most other forecast. Wouldn't be shocked for 12+ inches in mountains. Maybe a little conservative in the foothills and western piedmont, but I really think this warm nose is going to be an issue. If the storm was a little further east, my forecast would change. But I do believe with a track this close to the coast, and with the storm strengthening, I believe we are going to have sleet issues everywhere outside the mountains. In central locations, I kept the freezing rain area kind of large. I personally do not think it will be quiet this large, so it will probably need to be scaled down as we get closer to the event. The warm air advection shown on the models is tough. 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: There is also a group that live and die by the icon and nam Man you should see some of the weenies in the mid Atlantic thread defending the 84 hr Nam it’s unreal. I post them here just because it’s something to do before the main course of GFS but even I can say I’m a realist when it comes to overall expectations 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 18z euro is similar to 12z, did increase totals up this way a tad and lessened ZR a tad.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: LOL I cannot even find it on most of the sites its usually on...are you sure it ain't the 18Z from yesterday PSU from mid Atlantic thread was saying that it was almost identical to last run. Low goes right over DC so I would highly doubt it made a 250 mile shift lol Kuchera looks very similar to last run. May have even bumped up snow totals in the blue ridge by a couple inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 18z ECMWF was similar to the 12z run. The low transfer to the coast took slightly longer though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Totals slightly cutSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 looks about the same 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 For my CLT- Mountain Folk…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, WxJordan said: I just released my first snow/sleet accumulation map this evening. Pretty much in line with most other forecast. Wouldn't be shocked for 12+ inches in mountains. Maybe a little conservative in the foothills and western piedmont, but I really think this warm nose is going to be an issue. If the storm was a little further east, my forecast would change. But I do believe with a track this close to the coast, and with the storm strengthening, I believe we are going to have sleet issues everywhere outside the mountains. In central locations, I kept the freezing rain area kind of large. I personally do not think it will be quiet this large, so it will probably need to be scaled down as we get closer to the event. The warm air advection shown on the models is tough. Really think that is a super solid call 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, franklin NCwx said: There is also a group that live and die by the icon and nam That group also meets weekly at the community center if you know what I mean 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Actually seems like a pretty easy forecast for the most part with the convergence of the models. With the caveat of figuring out how much ip vs zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 43 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Really think that is a super solid call Thank you! The warm air is going to be an issue, no doubt. I really think the higher end forecast may need to come back down if the models hold this amount of sleet and freezing rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 NAm seems a little faster and to the east through 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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