kvegas-wx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, sarcean said: This hasn’t really been a RDU storm for days It won't be a Triad or piedmont storm either! Nothing at all like what we thought would happen, however, this is exactly what we should have thought would happen. (Charlie Brown flies through the air and once again lands on his back) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bargainmusic Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, eyewall said: The hard truth from RAH: A few showers may develop across the western Piedmont Saturday evening, then widespread precipitation will spread across the region Saturday night through early Sunday night. Models are coming into better agreement with the details, and confidence is increasing that this will be less of a snow event and more of a freezing rain/rain event. All areas will be below zero when precipitation begins to fall Saturday night, and most areas north of the Sandhills and southern Piedmont will likely see snow where it develops, while southern areas have a rain/snow mix. Then by early Sunday morning, a warm nose develops as the the possibility of freezing rain/sleet spreads north to just south of the Triangle by noon. By late Sunday afternoon, areas away from the Triad will likely have rain, while freezing rain becomes the dominant precipitation type across the northwest. This warm nose will lower snowfall amounts across most areas, even the Triad. Accumulating ice will become the greater hazard in the afternoon, and with wind gusts around 25 mph, could easily break weak icy tree branches. A dry slot will likely cut off moisture and end precipitation quickly late Sunday evening into early Sunday night. A Winter Storm Watch may be issued for portions of central NC either tonight or Friday morning. Highs Sunday will range from near 30 far NW to near 50 far SE. Well the snow potential from this storm certainly died a quick death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, bargainmusic said: Well the snow potential from this storm certainly died a quick death. Ok, so we know for most it will not be all snow but they rarely are. Still a formidable storm. Best since 2018 at my location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, NEGa said: Winter storm watch already hoisted and its quite early for a southern snow system. they have 6-10" in NE GA with more at the higher ridges. Unbelievable Hopefully crap. You’re alive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Looks about the same as 12z 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GFS looks good for WNC, less mixing so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 18z GFS 500 and 850 lows actually a bit south of 12z positions at 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Emergency meeting in the sanitaruim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 66 hrs just a smidge better. Heights imo aren't as pumped up this run which will help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 small step... was a bit faster. every bit helps. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Wow said: small step... was a bit faster. every bit helps. thanks for holding on to hope.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 the precip shield back toward KY continues to shrink... consolidate!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: WNC smoked that run as we get out to 78. Still not done up this way just yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Was quicker with the onset of snow here but changed quickly to sleet like the Euro around 1 pm. Just to much warm nose it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Winter Storm (F)Izzy. Can't believe with the change to a colder pattern, finally, that I still need to trek down to NGA and NWSC to possibly see the real deep snow. I will officially transfer to the sanitarium now and hover amongst like minded, emotionally shattered people. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The 18z GFS isn't horrible like the NAM. But still got a ways to go , if only it would go south and east 50-75 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I do like the fact that the GFS hardly shows any ZR up this way, but a good dose of Snow and then IP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 trend continued on the GFS runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC DataDude Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, eyewall said: So.. Seeing .44 ice in JoCo land (I-95 central NC).. Are there any calculations on how quickly snow/sleet/ice buildup is removed/melted due to regular cold rain after the surface temps rise above freezing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Wow said: trend continued on the GFS runs So do we need that moisture back in Tennessee to be smaller or what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, NC DataDude said: So.. Seeing .44 ice in JoCo land (I-95 central NC).. Are there any calculations on how quickly snow/sleet/ice buildup is removed/melted due to regular cold rain after the surface temps rise above freezing? Sleet typically endures longer than snow if there is a lot of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: So do we need that moisture back in Tennessee to be smaller or what? well yeah, it's due to the ULL moving through faster...that slug of moisture with a ULL that strong to the WEST of us means the warm nose will be visiting sooner. Quicker it can catch up with the precip and SFC low the better. Compare to the previous runs from Monday/Tuesday... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 So which model has been the most consistent so far? I'm gonna say the GFS and GEFS have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: So which model has been the most consistent so far? I'm gonna say the GFS and GEFS have. Can prolly add the Ukie in there as well from what I’ve seen Burrel and others post 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, Wow said: well yeah, it's due to the ULL moving through faster...that slug of moisture with a ULL that strong to the WEST of us means the warm nose will be visiting sooner. Quicker it can catch up with the precip and SFC low the better. Compare to the previous runs from Monday/Tuesday... The lastest GFS is trying to show a kick back to snow after the LP moves north. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 WRAL says power outage potential is LOW for wake. Hope it stays that way. Their futurecast shows freezing rain for Raleigh until 12pm and then everything melts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 JeshSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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