TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Looks like quite a warm nose though, scary. 2 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Let's see what the CMC and UK have to say.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 One would think the GEFS would look really good.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Looks juicy and fun, but 6+ days out...not letting myself get hyped at all, until I see a similar run <72 hours out. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, NCsandhills said: Looks juicy and fun, but 6+ days out...not letting myself get hyped at all, until I see a similar run <72 hours out. 5 days out.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KyleEverett Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 I see that cut off over the area south of KCLT. I'm too used to cold rain while Charlotte sees snow. I don't believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, NCsandhills said: Looks juicy and fun, but 6+ days out...not letting myself get hyped at all, until I see a similar run <72 hours out. Nobody should really believe it's going to blow up like that but we have a good storm system coming in it's beginning to look like. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Wow, the 00z GFS was a run for the ages. Well Over a foot of snow in the from CLT to the Triad and the Triangle. Add to that very strong winds, with surface temps in the 20’s for a big portion of NC. That’s a legit blizzard from the GFS. Also a nasty ice storm along the Hwy 1 corridor. Just incredible. If the Euro spits out something even half that we’ll see everyone jump on board tomorrow. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 As fun as that was i’d really rather our model suites stay suppressed for the time being. 00z gfs plays out as forecast and that warm nose is jutting 20-30 miles NW than the model suggests. There’d be some hellacious mixing. Hope the rest of the runs tonight are a little less dramatic 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Yeah, I hope the gfs was being a bit of a diva on that run. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 The UK looks nothing like the GFS and shows little moisture 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 UK 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 FWIW The 00z GEFS cut the mean snowfall from the 18z run in half. But it is colder at the surface. It’s definitely not seeing the up the coast solution like the Op. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: The UK looks nothing like the GFS and shows little moisture Ukie has been trash as of late. Didn’t even have the I95 snowstorm precip intensity until like 48 hrs before storm. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: The UK looks nothing like the GFS and shows little moisture Precip is there it’s just south. Playing into the bias the UK has. At H5, it was definitely an improvement. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Ukie has been trash as of late. Didn’t even have the I95 snowstorm precip intensity until like 48 hrs before storm. Trash because it’s truly trash or trash because it doesn’t show what you want? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, lilj4425 said: Trash because it’s truly trash or trash because it doesn’t show what you want? TRASH with reasonings listed above. It’s verification scores are putrid. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: TRASH with reasonings listed above. It’s verification scores are putrid. It has its issues but trusted mets still use it. The GFS and UK both have deficiencies. I think the GFS tends to overdo Northern stream energy 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, wncsnow said: It has its issues but trusted mets still use it. The GFS and UK both have deficiencies. I think the GFS tends to overdo Northern stream energy I will defer on this but I did state earlier that the GFS has a known bias to dig significantly more than other models with northern stream systems. It would be amazing to have that run verify for a lot of us but in all reality my gut has been telling me a 3-6” type event for someone in the sub forum would be most likely at this juncture. Now trying to predict the timing is nearly impossible until maybe 12z Wednesday or even into 0z Thursday. These vorts right now are like trying to catch a school of fish while your waist deep with no net. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Boy the 0z Canadian is REALLY trying as well to make this super interesting looking at 5h around the 114hr mark. Not nearly aggressive as the gfs but nonetheless another scenario to look at to where CLT/Raleigh and SC are pummeled 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Boy the 0z Canadian is REALLY trying as well to make this super interesting looking at 5h around the 114hr mark. Not nearly aggressive as the gfs but nonetheless another scenario to look over. Indeed, looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, JoshM said: Indeed, looking good Difference that’s noticeable is the gfs is wanting to go neutral to almost negative tilt with the system. As it traverses over panhandle region. Canadian is super close with its own mini bowling ball. What an interesting twist tonight. Looking forward to waking up tomorrow morning and sipping on some coffee for the 6z runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Euro and Euro EPS are really close to the GFS but stay suppressed. Actually not a bad look at all. GFS while an absolute crush job looks too good to be true. I’d still expect the Euro to start trending in GFS direction though. This has a very Christmas storm of 2010 look to me. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 hours ago, Wow said: Full blown blizzard conditions over NC, VA. Just an ideal run here. Now that’s a backyard special right there. The dream. I think what’s even better is knowing the trends the Euro seems to be at least saying all the pieces are there for this. Drop the QPF in half and it’s still one crazy storm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Euro ensemble member snow panels. Several absolute crush jobs in here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Here is the 00z EPS snow output. It’s night and day compared to the control run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, jrips27 said: Euro ensemble member snow panels. Several absolute crush jobs in here Yea I can see that for sure. EPS looked pretty damn close to the GFS with the setup. You guys are in for it I think. Makes me jealous haha. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, burgertime said: Yea I can see that for sure. EPS looked pretty damn close to the GFS with the setup. You guys are in for it I think. Makes me jealous haha. I'm sure we could fundraise to get you over here lol. An OG member of this sub for sure. Hope all is well and thanks for your insight over the years! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, jrips27 said: I'm sure we could fundraise to get you over here lol. An OG member of this sub for sure. Hope all is well and thanks for your insight over the years! Thanks! Haha I just love it here too much even if all winter it’s 36 and rain most years. Looking forward to seeing how this plays out. Even the UK Met trended in the right direction though it sends the low to the FL panhandle. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 7 hours ago, Avdave said: Ive been around long enough to know you are the jinx in NC for winter weather Even a broken clock had to be right once? How is it every year I come expecting a different Brick and it’s the same old Brick? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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