sarcean Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I know we will get some snow in Charlotte but sure looks like alot of sleet, freezing, rain, and ice will mix in with it. Then when those backside winds hit it will be lights out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Tigerchick224 said: Upstate SC Peeps- Can I have some honest feedback on this first call map? I have a lot of friends and family who ask me about weather and I don’t want to disappoint them by being to bullish. I thought Chris Justus was somewhat conservative and heavily reliant on climo today,and with some of his past calls, within good reason. However, I am really liking this front end thump models are depicting before the warm nose. I tried to make a map between model ensemble estimates and his forecast. Thanks in advance! . Tigerchick, that's pretty much what I'm going with. I have 5-8", 4-6" 2-3" and 1-2"...pretty much your same zones. I thought Chris put out an excellent videocast. There is still much uncertainty. And if we get the amount of ice that is potential, it will for sure cut down on the snow totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigerchick224 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Tigerchick, that's pretty much what I'm going with. I have 5-8", 4-6" 2-3" and 1-2"...pretty much your same zones. I thought Chris put out an excellent videocast. There is still much uncertainty. And if we get the amount of ice that is potential, it will for sure cut down on the snow totals.Thanks! I am hoping we can keep the warm nose at bay for as long as possible!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Right now , I'm thinking 4-7" here then IP/ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: EPS father south and a bit stronger as it passes through GA. Snow line a bit farther south. Usually if the 500mb low passes overhead or slightly south we get decent snow and maybe more than decent but for now will stay conservative. Really curious to see how this ends up playing out for the Atlanta metro. Seems like a lot of possibilities are on the table. Would like to see this tick further south the rest of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, sarcean said: I know we will get some snow in Charlotte but sure looks like alot of sleet, freezing, rain, and ice will mix in with it. Then when those backside winds hit it will be lights out. Trends have been better. I think we are good for 2”-5” with possibly more in the NW part of the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Gives some sense of where the freezing line may end up at it's warmest, although I suspect you could shift it *East* about 50 miles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, WinstonSalemArlington said: I was just about to post about him. Looks like he’s now really starting to sounds the alarm for a pretty intense icy zone for parts if not most of the piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Gives some sense of where the freezing line may end up at it's warmest, although I suspect you could shift it west about 50 miles Looks like anything in Wake would have a good opportunity to melt before nightfall and re-freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Gives some sense of where the freezing line may end up at it's warmest, although I suspect you could shift it *East* about 50 miles Are the surface temps as important with this one? I mean they always are I know...but more about the warm nose and temps aloft? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguysc Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 This is the Experimental Winter Storm Outlook (WSO) from the NWS. It somewhat lines up with some of the snow call maps I've seen so far. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/wso/index.php?id=GSP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 22 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: EPS father south and a bit stronger as it passes through GA. Snow line a bit farther south. Usually if the 500mb low passes overhead or slightly south we get decent snow and maybe more than decent but for now will stay conservative. It seems to me historically 70% of ATL snow events are weak gulf lows, 20% stronger upper lows and 10% coastals that develop in SE GA or SC like 1/22/87 as I mentioned yesterday. I still lean towards it being unlikely they see significant snow unless either the primary and 500 trof digs way more over MS/AL or the transfer to the coastal is earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 15 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: For Raleigh that will be Brief snow/sleet-->Ice-->Rain-->Dryslot-->Missed by the wrap around deform band to the NW 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, eyewall said: For Raleigh that will be Brief snow/sleet-->Ice-->Rain-->Dryslot-->Missed by the wrap around deform band to the NW which one dominates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: which one dominates? Probably a fairly even split between Ice and Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It seems to me historically 70% of ATL snow events are weak gulf lows, 20% stronger upper lows and 10% coastals that develop in SE GA or SC like 1/22/87 as I mentioned yesterday. I still lean towards it being unlikely they see significant snow unless either the primary and 500 trof digs way more over MS/AL or the transfer to the coastal is earlier Yeah, ideally we'd like the low to track somewhere between Gainesville, FL and Orlando for all snow in the ATL-AHN corridor. This one definitely isn't taking that track, at least so far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 48hr 18z HRRR has the 5h low over Dallas...??? That's way farther south and west of most guidance. Also very positive tilted/sheared. I've never followed the "long range" Hrrr; is it garbage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: 48hr 18z HRRR has the 5h low over Dallas...??? That's way farther south and west of most guidance. Also very positive tilted/sheared. I've never followed the "long range" Hrrr; is it garbage? Its garbage at any range 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: which one dominates? Probably depends on which RDU red tagger you ask. I think that the CAD maintains its Integrity a little more and it's predominately sleet/zr/711 slushie after a quick 1-2 inch burst for now. I don't think we'll get above freezing. Eyewall just said rain/zr split which is probably just as likely as my thinking. Think of it like this: 4 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, franklin NCwx said: Its garbage at any range HRRR is very good inside 18hrs, imo. I've seen it bust horribly before but more often than not it has a more accurate depiction than other hi-res models. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Really unfortunate for Raleigh. Which is ironic because a lot of places with lesser snow climo will cash in. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said: Really unfortunate for Raleigh. Which is ironic because a lot of places with lesser snow climo will cash in. Thanks for the trolling effort there. We are well aware. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: Probably depends on which RDU red tagger you ask. I think that the CAD maintains its Integrity a little more and it's predominately sleet/zr/711 slushie after a quick 1-2 inch burst for now. I don't think we'll get above freezing. Eyewall just said rain/zr split which is probably just as likely as my thinking. Think of it like this: Too rich. I’m 4 miles north of RDU so I would take 2.5 “of snow,.3 of sleet then a little ZR to a little bit of rain and call it a day. I think we miss out on backside accumulating snow but it would have been cool to pick up a quick 0.5-1” at the end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Several friends are running up 215 to hike and ride out the storm along the southern portion of the Great Balsams. This will likely be the spot for the highest totals in our area 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Nam is a little further north than 12z through 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 13 minutes ago, Local Yokel Wx said: Several friends are running up 215 to hike and ride out the storm along the southern portion of the Great Balsams. This will likely be the spot for the highest totals in our area I think Mt. Mitchell will do a little better but that's awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 NAM is a little faster and north at 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 NAM might be quite a bit warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now