HKY_WX Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Lookout said: The stubbornness of the gfs vs literally every other model is pretty wild. Take dewpoints for example, gfs is upwards of 20 degrees warmer over sc sat evening vs everything else. We all have a scorned lover it seems lol. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Kuchera snowfall map has 29" near Asheville. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Soo my question to mets and all... when are we going to start making some snow maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Yes, but i still trended farther south with the surface low, baby steps. Yep but its annoying since for my own psychological well being I wish it would get with the program already. 1 minute ago, HKY_WX said: We all have a scorned lover it seems lol. Lol for real. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, wake4est said: Kuchera snowfall map has 29" near Asheville. This storm is a Blue Ridge special. The orientation of the precip will dump on Mount Mitchell. I can see them getting 30 inches 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 @Buddy1987, don't brag but it still shows Roanoke getting over 20" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 For RDU the dry slot cuts off the ice after a solid hit but the backside deform band misses to the NW. Another few ticks east and we could get into that. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GEFS out to hr51, slightly better cold push from NE (we talking 1-°, but that is still a shift...)Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: @Buddy1987, don't brag but it still shows Roanoke getting over 20" lol Man hard not to haha. Trying to stay humble tho so the weather gods don’t punish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 With the complexity of the low transfer, ensembles become less of a factor from here on out I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The Canadian is broken again and the GFS stopped on Pivotal Wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Really surprised to see that much mixing for central NC with the location of low pressure as shown on the Nam and GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 17 minutes ago, wake4est said: Kuchera snowfall map has 29" near Asheville. Which map are you looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said: Which map are you looking at? That exact one. Hover over the peach colors to see point totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 21 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Soo my question to mets and all... when are we going to start making some snow maps? Tonight, mainly because of so much "misinformation" going on. Probably will go conservative being the first map and due to the uncertainty with the amount of sleet mixing in. Many local people here are saying 12+ is a guarantee.... Possible, but not the most likely scenario with the sleet mixing in. The weather apps.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Nice little south jog vs. 0z for 12z CMC at 500 mb. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 12zSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguysc Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, wake4est said: That exact one. Hover over the peach colors to see point totals. I believe that peach color to the east of Asheville is the Mt. Mitchell area. Looks like a nice 25-30" event there on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: 12z Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Looks to be holding steady. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Canadian is coming in further south too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 CMC looks similar to the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 A word about the icon for north ga folks, looking at full soundings there isn't much difference between the 06z and 12z run with respect to soundings and the threat of a front end hit of snow.. I'm a bit baffled to be honest why it cut totals. Surface through the mid levels look cold. Might be foolish to worry about such minor details at this range but can't help myself. 12z Canadian is also lovely. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I'd feel really good if I were in Greenville, Winston-Salem & especially Asheville. Charlotte & Raleigh are going to have an absolute mess on their hands with the 3-5" of concrete that falls here. Regardless, I'd get groceries now because most of NC & VA is going to get shut down by this storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Are WFO's doing 18z balloon launches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 It’s funny how so many people focus on micro analyzing the gfs when we know it’s the worst with predicting pressure gradients and low pressure tracks around a wedge. I can guarantee you its on an island with its low pressure track/evolution because its wrong. Analyzing thermals from it is a waste of time as a result. 12z ukmet crude panels looks great again and line up with other guidance. Yay! 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: It’s funny how so many people focus on micro analyzing the gfs when we know it’s the worst with predicting pressure gradients and low pressure tracks around a wedge. I can guarantee you its on an island with its low pressure track/evolution because its wrong. Analyzing thermals from it is a waste of time as a result. 12z ukmet crude panels looks great again and line up with other guidance. Yay! Great analysis. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Yea the UK track is looking solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, burrel2 said: It’s funny how so many people focus on micro analyzing the gfs when we know it’s the worst with predicting pressure gradients and low pressure tracks around a wedge. I can guarantee you its on an island with its low pressure track/evolution because its wrong. Analyzing thermals from it is a waste of time as a result. 12z ukmet crude panels looks great again and line up with other guidance. Yay! Where do you think the low will track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 UK snow map 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 BTW, if you want the "pie in the sky, 5% chance of it happening" scenario, its the ULL actually reaching the coast instead of tracking just inland. Things would go boom. (There's a reason the more offshore solutions in the GEFs solutions are in the 70-80mb range, and not in the 90s) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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