beanskip Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Great trend and track for NAM but man, it's a sleetstorm for most outside of mountains until the backside comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 So the NAM is showing no snow at all for central NC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I was getting a bit discouraged with the GFS refusing to budge and the 00Z Euro not that great either for Atlanta but the 06Z Euro and the new NAM has made me feel better for now. Now we'll see if the GFS comes around or at least trends in this direction. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said: Indeed Boy-not much snow in the Carolina's in that picture! I know the backend thump still coming, but that's a lot of ice for my area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, wncsnow said: nam thermals suck lots of ip Winds ripping at 70 kts out of the SE at 850 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6z GFS has 850 low at 90 hours over Roanoke. 12z NAM at 84 hours has it over ... Athens. That's a pretty big spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Wow said: If the low tracks from FL panhandle to Charleston as shown, you are not going to have that much ice. It's a mostly snow/rain event. Climatology rules. Y'all need to read this for NC. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 NAM looks a little too warm aloft in my opinion, but sleet is going to be an issue, even north of 85 if the track hold. NAM track is very very similar to what I am thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Blizzard conditions 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 NAM puts the baroclinic zone right where you want it and where it makes the most sense normally: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigerchick224 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Doesn’t the NAM have issues with temps that far out towards the end of the run? . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: Blizzard conditions Sleet drifts! Sounds kinda epic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Tigerchick224 said: Doesn’t the NAM have issues with temps that far out towards the end of the run? . I think I read before to look at the NAM for the track this far out and the other models for the temps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Brick Tamland said: I think I read before to look at the NAM for the track this far out and the other models for the temps. I thought it was the opposite haha i'm confused now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Tigerchick224 said: Doesn’t the NAM have issues with temps that far out towards the end of the run? . That's why we call it being nam'd this far out We're looking for the general track with the short term models at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The NAM is a realistic projection given the strength of the upper low. It's not truly a miller A if you look closely. There will be a surface/mid level lp reflection over the northern deep south which will throw those SE winds aloft (thus warming up mid-levels and causing sleet/zr). Still trying to see a way RDU doesn't changeover to rain but it's looking likely for a least a few hours given the strength of the coastal front. I do think it's possible we continue to see a trend SE due to the anomalous nature of the projection. It's not often you see Myrtle Beach get ZR and Raleigh changeover to rain. Makes me inclined to think there are some additional shifts to come and the models may be underestimating the cold dome/depth of the cold air. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigerchick224 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 That's why we call it being nam'd this far out We're looking for the general track with the short term models at this point. That’s what I thought! I know it is good at sniffing our warm noses, but I also remember it being very bullish this far out. I know here in the Northern Upstate, evaporational cooling has saves our butts several times. Do you think that will come into play here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: The NAM is a realistic projection given the strength of the upper low. It's not truly a miller A if you look closely. There will be a surface/mid level Low over the northern deep south which throw those SE winds aloft (thus warming up mid-levels and causing sleet/zr). Still trying to see a way RDU doesn't changeover to rain but it's looking likely for a least a few hours given the strength of the coastal front. I do think it's possible we continue to see a trend SE due to the anomalous nature of the projection. It's not often you see Myrtle Beach get Zr and raleigh changeover to rain. Make me think there are some additional shifts to come. So maybe no snow into VA? Talk about going from talks of 1-2 feet of snow to all sleet and ice that's wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Jonathan said: So maybe no snow into VA? Talk about going from talks of 1-2 feet of snow to all sleet and ice that's wild. I'm sure there will be some mixing in VA. But it's the 84 hour NAM. I wouldn't take everything Mr Pillow say's to heart. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Icon sure taking it’s time to come out this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, Tigerchick224 said: That’s what I thought! I know it is good at sniffing our warm noses, but I also remember it being very bullish this far out. I know here in the Northern Upstate, evaporational cooling has saves our butts several times. Do you think that will come into play here? We are trying to keep the waa from changing us over in this situation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigerchick224 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 We are trying to keep the waa from changing us over in this situation. Got it. Thanks!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: The NAM is a realistic projection given the strength of the upper low. It's not truly a miller A if you look closely. There will be a surface/mid level slp reflection over the northern deep south which will throw those SE winds aloft (thus warming up mid-levels and causing sleet/zr). Still trying to see a way RDU doesn't changeover to rain but it's looking likely for a least a few hours given the strength of the coastal front. I do think it's possible we continue to see a trend SE due to the anomalous nature of the projection. It's not often you see Myrtle Beach get ZR and Raleigh changeover to rain. Makes me inclined to think there are some additional shifts to come and the models may be underestimating the cold dome/depth of the cold air. Yes there's a bend in the isobars and wind barbs per the maps the indicative there's something there to push in enough WAA. But this is big step though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6z blend of models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 29 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: I was getting a bit discouraged with the GFS refusing to budge and the 00Z Euro not that great either for Atlanta but the 06Z Euro and the new NAM has made me feel better for now. Now we'll see if the GFS comes around or at least trends in this direction. Glad to see you Cheeze. Always enjoy your input. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 ICON at 54 is a little southeast of its 6z position but is closed and stronger compared to 12z Nam. Also by 78 Icon MUCH quicker than NAM projection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 35 minutes ago, Wow said: If the low tracks from FL panhandle to Charleston as shown, you are not going to have that much ice. It's a mostly snow/rain event. Climatology rules. Exactly…. That look just track wise would be Money for Majority West of A line Monroe-Raleigh imo if you’re 175-250 NW of the low you’re in a good spot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 15 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: The NAM is a realistic projection given the strength of the upper low. It's not truly a miller A if you look closely. There will be a surface/mid level slp reflection over the northern deep south which will throw those SE winds aloft (thus warming up mid-levels and causing sleet/zr). Still trying to see a way RDU doesn't changeover to rain but it's looking likely for a least a few hours given the strength of the coastal front. I do think it's possible we continue to see a trend SE due to the anomalous nature of the projection. It's not often you see Myrtle Beach get ZR and Raleigh changeover to rain. Makes me inclined to think there are some additional shifts to come and the models may be underestimating the cold dome/depth of the cold air. Thanks HKY but our problem in the RDU area is not helped much by the south trend as this low just will not track far enough east once it turns up the coast no matter how far south it trends. I don't see that changing or even being influenced to change much based on these new "south" trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 fwiw, the icon seems to be following the trend this morning 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Nice backend thump for North Georgia on the ICON 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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