buckeyefan1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguysc Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguysc Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 P-type maps show freezing rain, but mostly sleet, only freezing rain on the fringes (also, those dynamics, wowzers!) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 Can't wait to see the Euro ensembles. Looks like the op was a tick SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Better but matter how far south that surface low goes it's still a Miller B and there's gonna be a changeover to sleet and ice unless the ULL digs far enough south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 If that low was just 100 miles or so to the east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 It definitely is looking more and more like it will be shite for the RDU area. I think it is time to check out of this one. Enjoy to those that get it. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: P-type maps show freezing rain, but mostly sleet, only freezing rain on the fringes (also, those dynamics, wowzers!) EXACTLY…. As WOW and a good handful of others have stated can we stop taking these Surface maps as Gospel…. So much more to it as you can obviously see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 It shows the winds steady at @ 15-20mph 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 10 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: As the euro has steadily forecasted extreme upstate and extreme ne ga are in for a major here. Sw Nc will get pummeled for sure. Still time for adjustments and they will impact alot of folks good and bad. The latest trend is important imo of a south jog of the primary and track. Looking forward to today's changes! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 What are we looking for to keep the low from shooting straight north from exiting the SC coast and a move toward more of a ENE movement? Is that even a possibility given the current state of the atmosphere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Euro in my opinion continues to struggle with low pressure placement, as the system becomes occluded and stacked, it is having a hard time depicting where to ultimately place the “L” I think this gets smoothed out within the next 24 hours and would expect to see it jump southeast some more in line with other guidance. Time will tell but that’s what my gut is telling me. There’s a lot going on in the atmosphere between the confluence to our north and the energy diving down forcing the low to feel it and get tugged back to the west/northwest. I think by tomorrow mornings 6z runs we should def have a pretty clear understanding as to what is going to happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: I live only five minutes from Donaldson. Thanks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, Beach Snow said: What are we looking for to keep the low from shooting straight north from exiting the SC coast and a move toward more of a ENE movement? Is that even a possibility given the current state of the atmosphere? If you look at the 500 map on any website you desire, you will want to look at two pieces really. The energy that’s diving out of MN/Dakotas as the main piece of energy is around the gulf coast (models seem to be pretty set on this now) and then the confluence up above New England. The energy over New England basically squashes the heights and allows the system to be more south rather than turning due north and northwestward. Once that energy dives it’s a matter of timing. You have the euro that’s super aggressive with it and then you have some of the other solutions namely the GEFS that thinks it happens later and also allows the storm to take more of an east/northeasterly direction because of factors listed above The other factors is the NAO domain. Had that been a little further to the west than it is the storm would never have a chance to take a storm track like you’re seeing on some of these model runs. Now that makes some happy and others not so much. I can tell you WNC/SVA guys love this look and it’s classic major onslaught of heavy snow, as the flow comes out of the south southeast and piles up copious amounts of moisture along the blue ridge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 23 minutes ago, eyewall said: It definitely is looking more and more like it will be shite for the RDU area. I think it is time to check out of this one. Enjoy to those that get it. It still looks like a major winter storm for our area, unless you are just looking for only snow.... 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: If you look at the 500 map on any website you desire, you will want to look at two pieces really. The energy that’s diving out of MN/Dakotas as the main piece of energy is around the gulf coast (models seem to be pretty set on this now) and then the confluence up above New England. The energy over New England basically squashes the heights and allows the system to be more south rather than turning due north and northwestward. Once that energy dives it’s a matter of timing. You have the euro that’s super aggressive with it and then you have some of the other solutions namely the GEFS that thinks it happens later and also allows the storm to take more of an east/northeasterly direction because of factors listed above The other factors is the NAO domain. Had that been a little further to the west than it is the storm would never have a chance to take a storm track like you’re seeing on some of these model runs. Now that makes some happy and others not so much. I can tell you WNC/SVA guys love this look and it’s classic major onslaught of heavy snow, as the flow comes out of the south southeast and piles up copious amounts of moisture along the blue ridge. Thanks for the insight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: It still looks like a major winter storm for our area, unless you are just looking for only snow.... Triangle could still get a few inches of snow mixed with ice. Maybe it's not a foot of snow, but it will be a major impact storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: It still looks like a major winter storm for our area, unless you are just looking for only snow.... Agreed. Around here i'm guessing we'll see a little front end snow that annoyingly changes to sleet earlier than we would want, ultimately changing to freezing rain for much longer than we'd like, followed by rain at the end that nobody likes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, wake4est said: Agreed. Around here i'm guessing we'll see a little front end snow that annoyingly changes to sleet earlier than we would want, ultimately changing to freezing rain for much longer than we'd like, followed by rain at the end that nobody likes. That is the problem is we go over to 38F and rain ultimately. Also the warm nose almost always overperforms compared to the models so it will mostly be sleet/ZR then rain. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, eyewall said: That is the problem is we go over to 38F and rain ultimately. Also the warm nose almost always overperforms compared to the models so it will mostly be sleet/ZR then rain. True. It is getting harder to see snow in Central NC. I know people hear it a lot on here but Global Warming has to be playing a part. It seems like most of NC is where SC used to be for these storms. That is my 2 cents at least. Congratulations to those who cash out. Enjoy it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Jeez man who pissed in the euro’s coffee. Didn’t expect to wake up to such an abjectly bad run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I am also a photographer so cold rain doesn't exactly make for great weather shots lol. ZR can if there is a enough on the trees though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 A piece of our energy is coming ashore in the Pac NW, we wait and watch for development over the Canadian plains later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Jack Sillin (@JackSillin) · Twitter https://twitter.com/JackSillin 12z RAOBS coming in with higher heights than 00z GFS across the W US, though less near the shortwave entering WA/OR compared to the downstream ridge. Also note lower ON heights. To me this suggests we might see today's guidance slow the storm down a bit and possibly wobble SE. Twitter · 19 mins ago 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Rise and shine, storm trackers! Two of our shortwaves of interest are now onshore, including the primary system which is making landfall in WA/OR this morning. 12z RAOBs should have the northern wave well-sampled, and should have a solid first look at the second wave. Twitter · 42 mins ago Jack Sillin (@JackSillin) · Twitter https://twitter.com/JackSillin Rise and shine, storm trackers! Two of our shortwaves of interest are now onshore, including the primary system which is making landfall in WA/OR this morning. 12z RAOBs should have the northern wave well-sampled, and should have a solid first look at the second wave. Twitter · 42 mins ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Jack Sillin (@JackSillin) · Twitter https://twitter.com/JackSillin 12z RAOBS coming in with higher heights than 00z GFS across the W US, though less near the shortwave entering WA/OR compared to the downstream ridge. Also note lower ON heights. To me this suggests we might see today's guidance slow the storm down a bit and possibly wobble SE. Twitter · 19 mins ago Eew. Don't want slower. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 12z Nam at 26 looks a little flatter and not as stout as 6z. Let’s see where this thing goes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 At 30 12z nam is slightly weaker and about the same spot with the energy dropping from the plains, as our low that is exiting off the east coast is stronger and north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now