weatherguysc Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguysc Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguysc Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GSP Discussion Quote .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 am EST Thursday: The forecast will not change a great deal this morning, with all models on track for a major winter storm across the southeast during mainly the latter half of the weekend. First though, a shortwave ridge will cross our area on Friday between a departing, offshore trough and the next developing low pressure system digging southward across the Plains. Northerly flow at low-levels on Friday will allow thicknesses to begin cooling across the region. The Plains system will then detach from the northern stream flow over the Arklatex Region Saturday, with the 500 mb closed low center deepening as it translates across the Deep South Saturday night. Meanwhile, 1040 mb surface high pressure settling southeast across Ontario Friday will move into a classical cold air damming position by Saturday. Upglide well ahead of the approaching low pressure system may get started on Saturday as moisture slowly deepens near the pre-existing baroclinic zone draped across our region. Will gradually bring PoPs back from the west on Saturday, with chance values across the mountains and at least slight chances east. Onset could be as light snow in the mountains and across the cooler I-40 corridor area late Saturday. The operational models are in relatively good agreement with the 500 mb low center track atop our area late weekend. The GFS remains a few hours faster than the ECM/CMC solutions, but they all lift the system across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia late Sunday and Sunday night. The ECM/CMC mean sea level pressure prognostics have a slightly farther south/southeast track of the associated surface low center, mainly across the coastal plain. This is favored given the strength of the low-level ridge north of the forecast area and it will likely contribute to slightly colder profiles and boundary layer temperatures than indicated on the operational GFS. QPF will be robust in the 06Z to 18Z Sunday period, with strong upper jetlet divergence, deep-layer QC convergence, and strong warm advection at low-levels. Anticipate that the zero degree 850 mb isotherm may pivot near the NC/SC line to create a very sharp gradient in snowfall from the NC foothills down into the Upstate, but this remains highly subject to change. The current thinking is that most of NE GA, Upstate SC, and the Charlotte metro area will see some degree of warm nosing to undercut potential snow totals and generate more sleet, with more freezing rain especially likely at times along and southeast of I-85. 850 to 700 mb frontogenesis will likely sharpen up along and east of the mountains to enhance precipitation rates Sunday morning. The phasing process of this southern system back into the northern stream may accelerate the low passage. That could be a slight limiting factor, but it may not matter much given the otherwise excellent potential for significant wintry accumulations across the region as it stands. Anticipate a mix back over to scattered snow showers before the larger scale precipitation ends Sunday night. Additional western mountain snow accumulations are expected in moist NW upslope flow Sunday night, with windy conditions developing across the mountains. Conditions may well be treacherous across the region by daybreak Monday with snow and ice on the ground and temperatures in the 20s throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Saw this on Twitter. It depicts everyone watching the GFS, EURO, UKMET and now the NAM… 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6Z GFS looked similar on the surface til 84 compared to 0z, then everything looked like another East jump. Haven't looked at upper levels yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 hours ago, burrel2 said: CMC clown map is loving the upstate tonight!. foot plus totals!!! Gonna stay up for the Ukmet clown map and then try and get some rest. Sure did. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Really stinks to wake up and see the Euro trending the wrong way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Really stinks to wake up and see the Euro trending the wrong way. Yeah...the Euro is no longer king. The GFS has been pretty consistent for better, or for worse. Still a little big of time for some positive trends, but, unfortunately south of 85 seems to be mostly out of the game for big snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 It’s been a long time since nws gsp has issued a winter storm watch for the entire forecast area. I expect that will happen tomorrow 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 RAH point forecast for Greensboro still calling for all snow (5.5" on the hourly graph). But the discussion acknowledges the ice threat: Saturday night, little rain is expected. The bulk of the precipitation will fall as snow overnight, with sleet/freezing rain eventually mixing in across the south as warmer air begins to move in aloft. The push of warm air begins in earnest after sunrise Sunday, which should limit the areal extent of snow by Sunday afternoon. Rain will eventually make its way in along the I-95 corridor, but farther to the west, sleet and/or freezing rain will be the dominant precipitation types, depending on the depths of the warm layer aloft and cold layer at the surface. The GFS and European are now in better spatial agreement with the dry slot moving directly across central NC, reducing the potential for wraparound snowfall Sunday night, although the ECMWF is now about 6 hours slower than the GFS. A few days ago, this system looked as if it would simply be a rain/snow event. Over the last 72 hours, the westward trend of the surface low moving farther inland makes a widespread significant icing event appear more and more likely west of I-95. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I see canada decided to show up to the party last night 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 ENS look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 06z rgem isn’t bad either… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GFS ENS EURO ENS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, lilj4425 said: While the Euro got too drunk at the same party and passed out. Not really. There will be adjustments and swings for all of us because we are within the 20-50mi shifts. Those shifts will make all the difference in our weather. This madness is why we are all nerds 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: GFS ENS EURO ENS Boy one of them is very wrong. Placement of the low over CHS or over CLT will most definitely have some major implications. Kinda odd to see Euro go against almost all guidance for last nights runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 @57 the 06z Euro is a bit SE of 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Man, I bet I haven't been here in 5-6 years but I still see the same people! :-) 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, DaculaWeather said: Man, I bet I haven't been here in 5-6 years but I still see the same people! :-) Welcome back. Note: most are still addicted to colorful snow maps. 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, DaculaWeather said: Man, I bet I haven't been here in 5-6 years but I still see the same people! :-) We talked about this yesterday. Seen some names pop up I haven’t seen in a good while. Even when I look at browsing I see someone like @Pilotwx I know something significant is on the map. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Boy one of them is very wrong. Placement of the low over CHS or over CLT will most definitely have some major implications. Kinda odd to see Euro go against almost all guidance for last nights runs. Different time stamps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, DaculaWeather said: Man, I bet I haven't been here in 5-6 years but I still see the same people! :-) Weenie club for life! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Wild Weather Monger said: Different time stamps. Yes and no. Time stamps matter but in this instance you have to somewhat adjust the time stamp because GFS is hauling a** comparatively to some of the guidance. So realistically there’s not much difference in the end when it comes to it. Maybe 4-6 hours. Euro is by far the most amped at this juncture. There’s been a clear trend with long range meso models and the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6z EURO… LPS is on the panhandle of FL. Oh boy. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 27 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: I see canada decided to show up to the party last night I think those totals are high due to the storm next weekend. It was a weird run for this weekend's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguysc Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said: Raging sleet storm for many 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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