PantherJustin Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 9 minutes ago, burgertime said: Like this look for the south. Lots of energy rolling through and enough cold air. Even with the Euro solution from 12z it's a good look at this range. Split the difference and it's still a six inch snow storm! Can offer PBP for the Euro at 00z if it's looking good over the next few days. Only if we get a Burger “BOOM” like when I first started Lurking for Feb 2014 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, burgertime said: All good here. Weather is boring in the Netherlands right now. Thankfully I'm six hours ahead which means I wake up just as the Euro is finishing its run...when I'm not up like tonight watching the Hornets game lol, I will be watching this one from the Bahamas, figures... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 We are doomed with Brick starting this thread. We need someone who has been here all year. BRick is a jinx 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, Avdave said: We are doomed with Brick starting this thread. We need someone who has been here all year. BRick is a jinx Yeah, that's not how it works. But weenie on. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: Yeah, that's not how it works. But weenie on. Ive been around long enough to know you are the jinx in NC for winter weather 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 8 minutes ago, Avdave said: We are doomed with Brick starting this thread. We need someone who has been here all year. BRick is a jinx I don't think they let him start threads at his other place. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, frazdaddy said: I don't think they let him start threads at his other place. Makes you wonder why LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Brick is on pace to be the next Bob Chill, beloved man of the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 FWIW....The Euro at 18z looked better than it did at 12z. Here's the last frame 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 41 minutes ago, burgertime said: Like this look for the south. Lots of energy rolling through and enough cold air. Even with the Euro solution from 12z it's a good look at this range. Split the difference and it's still a six inch snow storm! Can offer PBP for the Euro at 00z if it's looking good over the next few days. BOOM! Glad to see you man! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 50 minutes ago, burgertime said: Like this look for the south. Lots of energy rolling through and enough cold air. Even with the Euro solution from 12z it's a good look at this range. Split the difference and it's still a six inch snow storm! Can offer PBP for the Euro at 00z if it's looking good over the next few days. My early weenie days were filled with PBP’s from burger and Robert. Great to have you on board for this one, burger! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Thanks everyone! Wish we had a forum like this for Europe. Really miss the fun! 18z Euro EPS looks better to my eye at 500mb. Not the 18z GFS/GEFS but it's looking close to a nice ULL sliding across the SE with more energy than the 12z run. For now it's keeping south which is probably good given the NW trends as we get closer. 18z EPS spreads the snow line a little further south but with less moisture in general. Gonna sleep in tomorrow but should be around for the 00z runs the rest of the week if it's looking good. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 The 18z GFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 14 minutes ago, burgertime said: Thanks everyone! Wish we had a forum like this for Europe. Really miss the fun! 18z Euro EPS looks better to my eye at 500mb. Not the 18z GFS/GEFS but it's looking close to a nice ULL sliding across the SE with more energy than the 12z run. For now it's keeping south which is probably good given the NW trends as we get closer. 18z EPS spreads the snow line a little further south but with less moisture in general. Gonna sleep in tomorrow but should be around for the 00z runs the rest of the week if it's looking good. Crazy to me the trajectory it takes based on where it starts. If I remember correctly the gfs has a tendency with northern stream systems to dig too far a lot of times. Curious to see how this one plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 Looks like thos EPS run is going to be a good one. Definitely moving in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Anyone have a comparison of the 18z eps vs 12z eps.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Euro has managed baby steps in the right direction today, so hopefully that trend continues 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Anyone have a comparison of the 18z eps vs 12z eps.? 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 Love seeing the models coming together and right now looking like they are going in the right direction versus having a huge storm show up 10 or more days out. To me that's when you know it's a legit threat. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Bundle up 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greendave Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 FWIW - the referenced storm dropped 10" in Burlington and definitely overperformed most forecasts. reel it in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 This is the snowstorm in 2018 we keep referencing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 More details about that storm. Was a good one in Danville and overperformed most model output. https://www.weather.gov/rnk/2018_01_17_Winter 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Yeah that storm really rocked. Just a rich period. I stayed in Wilmington for the 1.3.2018 bomb that gave us 4 inches of windswept powder over a half inch of sleety crust. 2 weeks later this even popped up. I was in Wilmington looking for my first weather job while the girl I was dating at the time lived in Raleigh. I asked if I could "visit" once it became apparent 48 hours out something was happening. What I remember about the 1.17.2018 storm is how suddenly it popped up. This was not a "thread 5 days out storm" - 2-3 days out it looked like we'd be really lucky if we got an inch, it just looked so dry! With this storm, the short range models (NAM, RGEM, etc) were the first to really beat the drum that qpf would be actually over 0.5. There was definitely a globals vs. CAMs (convection allowing models) split and if your forecast was all globals and you weren't trusting the CrAzY NaM then you ended up with egg on your face. My weather pals group chat was basically headhunting local news forecasts that were way too conservative (WRAL stuck out) and roasting them for about 36 hours straight. Fantastic storm. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 0z ICON is a big hit for northern NC, Southern VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 I'm sure @buckeyefan1 want mind giving us a pretty snowmap... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 GFS is rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, Brick Tamland said: GFS is rolling. And digging deep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 114 Low pressure over northern MS. Much more juice this run. 540 line into northern SC. 1039 parked up in Ontario/Quebec 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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