buckeyefan1 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Ensembles 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozmaea Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 GSP I try not to ask to many question but this I have no clue how to read.....what is this saying for gspSent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigerchick224 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Ensembles Now that is a thing of beauty. So much pink and purple! You don’t see that much.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Gsp noaa weather office has out their afternoon discussion, and have updated local forecast. Enjoy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, MillerA said: Gsp noaa weather office has out their afternoon discussion, and have updated local forecast. Enjoy. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...As of 240 pm EST Wednesday: The forecast for the weekend remains ina state of flux. Readers are advised to continue to manage theirexpectations. On the one hand, confidence continues to increasethat we will have a winter storm that will probably impact theentire forecast area beginning Saturday night and continuingthrough most of Sunday. Precip probs are now into the categoricalfor that time period. On the other hand, details about precip-typedistribution are very murky in both space and time, and that ishaving a negative impact on confidence. The latest problem isthe operational GFS solution, which has trended toward moving the850 mb low well west of the mtn chain, allowing for strong warmadvection that would establish a warm nose in most places eastof the mtns. The result would be a steady changeover/mix to sleetand freezing rain, if the operational GFS is correct. It is worthnoting the 12Z GEFS is still holding onto snow as the most likelyp-type at GSP, but there is enough of an increase in sleet/freezingrain outcomes that places like CLT have an almost equal chance ofthe primary p-type being any one of the four. Meanwhile, the ECMWFkeeps its 850mb low moving overhead/southeast of the mtn chain. Theoperational ECMWF would allow for a long enough period of time forsnow to fall east of the mtns before a weaker warm nose pokes upfrom the south to changeover along/S of I-85. Worth considering isthat in most situations, the warm nose wins across the area south ofI-85. Still way too early to consider amounts of individual p-types,but the trend in the QPF has gone up substantially, which willin turn flow down into the precip accums. The forecast guidanceblend used to create the new fcst will sometimes show a lag thatdoes not quickly jump to any new trend, so for the time being,the fcst will look more like the cooler ECMWF/Canadian ensemblesinstead of the more icy GFS. High temps will not get out of themid-30s. Eventually, as the system passes, a change back towardlight snow should happen late Sunday. Model guidance shows a strongsignal toward a NW Flow Snow event along the TN border Sunday nightthat would continue through Monday and might not taper off untilTuesday morning. Temps will remain about 10 degrees below normalthrough Tuesday, with a warming trend into Wednesday. Anotherweaker system may approach from the west Wednesday afternoon,but this was downplayed for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 20 minutes ago, ozmaea said: I try not to ask to many question but this I have no clue how to read.....what is this saying for gsp Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk A mixed bag of fun Euro-7.5" sn, .60 zr. .2 ip GFS 3" sn, .50 zr, 3" ip and GEM 9" sn, .10 zr and 4" ip 19 minutes ago, Tigerchick224 said: Now that is a thing of beauty. So much pink and purple! You don’t see that much. . IKR?! I absolutely love watching the colors fill in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 16 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: Ensembles Do you happen to have 1 of these graphs for Danville VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Do you happen to have 1 of these graphs for Danville VA? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I have not seen any posts from the original QueenCityWX which I believe changed to BullCityWX once he moved to Durham. Did he move again ? Always enjoyed his input. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 13 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: KCLT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 13 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: Good looking run, close enough to me here in Surry county to show me its potential for this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, PantherJustin said: KCLT? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 16 hours ago, ILMRoss said: I agree with all of this. I see the point. It’s not a perfect graphic but on a snow week in news when you have 100 people asking you about the storm in social, when you have to coordinate messaging, when you have to produce a couple of afternoon/evening shows and oh on top of all of that do a bit of forecasting it’s a time saver and a “don’t let perfect get in the way of good” kind of graphic. I’m tuning out the 00z ICON I thought it looked kind of wonky I know this is late but I’ve been out all day. I don’t think you’re making the correct read on the graphic. It is not a “don’t let perfect get in the way of good” kind of graphic. Quite the opposite. By using values like 22%, 27% etc. instead of just rounding them to the nearest 5 they have made it an “imitation of accuracy to 1% without corroborating data” kind of graphic. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguysc Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 18z NAM 60-84 has the low almost in the Florida panhandle at 84 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 GSO? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 NAM has rdu's dewpoint at -2 at hour 84. If that's not an exaggeration that's pretty crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, weatherguysc said: 18z NAM 60-84 has the low almost in the Florida panhandle at 84 Nice pick up. The NAM is really feeling the effects of that HP, forcing it to be pushed underneath. That should make the CNC folks happy seeing this. Just another plausible scenario. Nice confluence up top and vort is weaker this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncgolfguy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, weatherguysc said: 18z NAM 60-84 has the low almost in the Florida panhandle at 84 Yeah I really like the placement of that High Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Being that its the 84 hour plot it should be taken with caution but fwiw 18z nam has dpts crashing in time to leave little doubt of significant ice/snow accumulations in north ga. 20 degree dpts down to Athens and Gainesville right ahead of the precip with even colder air incoming in the low levels. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Nice pick up. The NAM is really feeling the effects of that HP, forcing it to be pushed underneath. That should make the CNC folks happy seeing this. Just another plausible scenario. Nice confluence up top and vort is weaker this run. Yeah, that's what we need, further south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Massive difference on GFS 06z Sunday low placement from 18z nam. This could be huge as we get closer with mesoscale models 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Rule 1) Don’t trust long range NAM 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: Rule 1) Don’t trust long range NAM Rule 2) The GFS still and always has sucked 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The NAM didn’t do too terribly bad within 84 hours of the last MA storm a week ago…can only hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 16 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: GSO? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Icon closed at 500 at 69 but more south of the 12z position. I really like the placement of the High as well. More west, which would give it time hopefully in subsequent runs to drift east and really set up in a prime position for CAD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 NAM has JMA as a buddy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Rule 1) Don’t trust long range NAM 2014….. That Saturday Afternoon NAM Run is the one that Set the Forum on Fire For The Storm Weds 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Nothing like the JMA/84hr NAM combo' to still my heart... Next Mr Pillow will endorse this storm. 4 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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