wncsnow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Hi everyone! It's been a while since I have been on the form, but we do finally have a chance of a winter storm, especially across western and central NC. Its been amazing how consistent overall the models, and especially the ensembles, have been over the past few days. While the system has definitely trended a further west than originally thought, it still appears most areas along and north of 85 stand a good chance of wintry weather from this system. The 06z GEFS and 12z GEFS are similar in the progression of the system, and that leads to increasing confidence in the forecast. Will be interesting to see what happens over the next 24-36 hours with the trends, but as of right now, 85 and north looks pretty good. RDU and points south are very big question marks without a track further south. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Nope, not going to get it where we need it on this run: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 LP transfers to the GA coast early Sunday afternoon. 1001mb. Mixing in NC. Mtns do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Yep it is crap. Front enders are the worst: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Big ice storm central SC to CLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 Might not get a big snow here, but a mix of some snow and ice would still be a big impact and create a lot of mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, wncsnow said: Big ice storm central SC to CLT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Better than 6z at least... You know it is bad when a weanie like me is saying to stop doom castingBut holy **** that ice storm in SC...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Good run, a bit better than 00Z for most 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Man that has a big signal for some serious ice accrual in the piedmont of NC i.e. Greensboro and that area. North of Columbia wiped off the map. I mean even half of that good lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Some pingers to make the sledding awesome 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said: With the supply chain issues and the hurricanes this year, some folks are probably going to be without power for awhile if this verifies. debating getting a generator myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Looks like a big damn mess to me 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Good run, a bit better than 00Z for most Better than I thought it was going to be. 3 to 6 inches of snow for the Triangle with some sleet and freezing rain would be a typical winter storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said: id take 8 inches and .30 of freezing rain...especially over that garbage the gfs is showing lol. Althougb looking at 925 mb temps, euro might be underestimating sleet amounts some. At least for now the nw trend has stopped. Canadian is pretty wild with as much sleet its showing. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 It's hard to get the system to go far enough south when it is moving so quickly and closing off so far west. I will admit, the current data model data has been relatively consistent. The warm nose is going to be a big issue IMO, even up into the foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, eyewall said: Yep it is crap. Front enders are the worst: No….70° + in winter is the worst. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Here is the Kuchera map for the euro: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Lookout said: id take 8 inches and .30 of freezing rain...especially over that garbage the gfs is showing lol. Althougb looking at 925 mb temps, euro might be underestimating sleet amounts some. At least for now the nw trend has stopped. Canadian is pretty wild with as much sleet its showing. I'm not looking at the column until I can see the whites of its eyes Everyone complains about sleet, but to me that just keeps the snow around longer and gives perfect sledding conditions 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Lookout said: id take 8 inches and .30 of freezing rain...especially over that garbage the gfs is showing lol. Althougb looking at 925 mb temps, euro might be underestimating sleet amounts some. At least for now the nw trend has stopped. Canadian is pretty wild with as much sleet its showing. I am still suspect of your area seeing any notable snow. I only recall one instance of a deeper low of this nature producing snows on the backside that far S into GA and that was 1/21/87. Typically the TROWAL area is up in TN or if the low is near SAV or off the coast its farther east. Its interesting though seeing the Euro consistently show the snow down into AHN and NRN ATL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said: I'm not looking at the column until I can see the whites of its eyes Everyone complains about sleet, but to me that just keeps the snow around longer and gives perfect sledding conditions Sledding won't be a problem for those that get an inch of ice. You can build a luge course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I thought that this run of the Euro had two conflicting items going for it. It seemed that ahead of the storm, 500mb heights were lower and overall the atmosphere was colder. However, the shortwave itself came in a touch stronger and allowed it to curl inland a little faster. It looked like these two tweaks cancelled each other out. I'm pretty neutral on what I just saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Setup reminds me quite a bit of dec 2002. Main difference is there is a stronger impulse aloft and it is cutoff. This would likely result in some backlash snow over the interior and a warm up over the coastal plain. In contrast, dec 2002 ended as 32 and freezing rain/rain for most people. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, buckeyefan1 said: I'm not looking at the column until I can see the whites of its eyes Everyone complains about sleet, but to me that just keeps the snow around longer and gives perfect sledding conditions Haha. Being a wedge weenie its an addiction but Absolutely. ...sleet sure beats freezing rain or rain any day. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: I am still suspect of your area seeing any notable snow. I only recall one instance of a deeper low of this nature producing snows on the backside that far S into GA and that was 1/21/87. Typically the TROWAL area is up in TN or if the low is near SAV or off the coast its farther east. Its interesting though seeing the Euro consistently show the snow down into AHN and NRN ATL Euro shows front end snow for lookouts area with the initial waa push. Doesn’t seem that far fetched and it played out very similar with the Feb 2014 event. Front end waa thumps before changeover have historically/typically over performed imby more often than not. Still too early to know the battle lines now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 hours ago, HKY_WX said: Hilarious how these snow maps line up with climo and history. I can't tell you how many times Hickory got a 10 inch storm (aka 8 inches of snow and 2 inches of sleet) while the the western foothills and anyone above say 2000 ft got the 12-18 inches of mostly snow. Agree it looks like the 6-8'' snow/sleet with a raging sleet storm at some point with freezing rain to end it in my area.Usually west of I 85 and north of HWY 73 around here locally is the dividing line,seen it many times. Just my opinion. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12z Euro is first run in a while to trend slightly weaker/further east. Maybe the NW trend has abated and we’ll settle into something between what we had the other day and this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Verbatim the Euro is a MAJOR winter storm for most on this sub forum including the triangle even though some areas go to plain rain. This won’t be a pure snow event for very many people but this could be a serious winter storm and that shouldn’t be understated. Euro kept the BL temps below freezing and had slightly cooler mid levels for piedmont areas than 6Z and 0Z. I think the WAA was slightly muted with a slightly less amped system. HP and overall setup didn’t change much 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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