Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Anyone having that gut feeling that Lucy already pulled the football and we just haven't lined up for the kick yet? Trust your gut. We've all seen this game before and there is no reason not to assume the same outcome here until we are proven wrong. (this will also be my approach with the Bengals playoff game Saturday.....31 years of disappointment.....prove me wrong) The writing is on the wall folks. When you see that much WAA hammering into the SE portion of the state there's a valid reason it showed up. And if history is a good indicator, that's a trend that usually ends up with 25% of the forecasted snow total across much of CNC immediately followed by an hour of sleet and the rest of the day filled with freezing drizzle. And we haven't even started talking dry slot yet. Prove me wrong. I'm a Browns fan so I feel your pain But yeah, we still got time to adjust... We waitSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 15 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Anyone having that gut feeling that Lucy already pulled the football and we just haven't lined up for the kick yet? Trust your gut. We've all seen this game before and there is no reason not to assume the same outcome here until we are proven wrong. (this will also be my approach with the Bengals playoff game Saturday.....31 years of disappointment.....prove me wrong) The writing is on the wall folks. When you see that much WAA hammering into the SE portion of the state there's a valid reason it showed up. And if history is a good indicator, that's a trend that usually ends up with 25% of the forecasted snow total across much of CNC immediately followed by an hour of sleet and the rest of the day filled with freezing drizzle. And we haven't even started talking dry slot yet. Prove me wrong. That would be brutal. Would hate to see over 1" qpf turn into less than a quarter. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 35 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Wow. If Wake County goes from a potential for snow to temperatures in the 50s/60s, there will be a lot of confidence lost in forecasting... That's the problem with so many models/graphics/etc... being publicly available online and shared so much. Folks buy in to one model solution way too soon. The problem is this wasn’t one run, this was what looked like a perfect setup for days. It’s completely changed in 48 hours. Not just type of storm (Miller A to Miller B ) or track (Carolina’s, to gulf coast, to Tennessee valley to split low) or timing (Saturday to now Sunday into Monday) or precip (light strung out solutions to amped wet solutions) or low pressure track due east to now cutting inland up the east coast. Essentially these are HUGE changes in 48 hours. Pattern recognition and storm fruition are two totally different beasts but outside 4 days I don’t think a single model had a solution even remotely close to what we’re seeing now. This may rain all the way to NYC and Boston whereas 2 days ago we weren’t even talking precip there way and it had snow in orangeburg. I get model runs change but these have been drastic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 As a reminder, this is the storm thread. Please keep the banter in the sanitarium 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: The problem is this wasn’t one run, this was what looked like a perfect setup for days. It’s completely changed in 48 hours. Not just type of storm (Miller A to Miller B ) or track (Carolina’s, to gulf coast, to Tennessee valley to split low) or timing (Saturday to now Sunday into Monday) or precip (light strung out solutions to amped wet solutions) or low pressure track due east to now cutting inland up the east coast. Essentially these are HUGE changes in 48 hours. Pattern recognition and storm fruition are two totally different beasts but outside 4 days I don’t think a single model had a solution even remotely close to what we’re seeing now. This may rain all the way to NYC and Boston whereas 2 days ago we weren’t even talking precip there way and it had snow in orangeburg. I get model runs change but these have been drastic It didn't even take 48 hours. Everything looked great Monday night with the 11:00 GFS run. It didn't really start changing until yesterday afternoon. It took about 12 hours for it to start going downhill after that GFS run Monday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12z Euro is at Zero hour, it is getting ready to runSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 CMC at 60 is negligible wrt changes. If anything s/w may be a little bit stronger. @wncsnow could see CMC going west this run; just a feeling before the run plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottk Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Here is what I see for SC *as it stands* (subject to change):I-95 to the coast: rainI-20/I-77 to I-95: IP/ZR with snow mixed in, turning all rainI-85 to I-20/I-77: Ice Storm AlleyNorth of I-85: SnowSent from my SM-S115DL using TapatalkI wish someone would turn the temperature down on I-95. It is a reliable snow-melter in NE SC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 @Disc what are your thoughts this far out regarding WAA overriding the cold dome over us? Any in house model data showing more of a pronounced warm nose or do we snow heavy and hard out here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 CMC def not going to make people happy... High pressure is 4mb's deeper however. Only thing that bothers me about the high pressure is that its a little weakling, sitting at 1020mb forecasted to get into the low 1040's in some instances. Going to take a lot for it to get there imo. 12Z 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Yep CMC is a sleet fest. Even for the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Out to 60 the 12z euro is a touch weaker and slightly east of 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Yep CMC is a sleet fest. Even for the mountains As this winter has gone, that is a winSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Yep CMC is a sleet fest. Even for the mountains Its just pumping the heights up way too much. Canadian can sometimes over amp things so there's that as well. Usually its thermals are about as good as the NAM's (Canadian can sometimes run a little too cold however). Moral of the story is confidence has increased significantly imo for a major winter storm for I-40 north and the cad areas of WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: Out to 60 the 12z euro is a touch weaker and slightly east of 06z Buckeye if you could do a PBP that would be awesome. I have zero access to Euro products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 We need Burger for pbp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I was kind of surprised to see that Canadian come in strong and amped, even the GFS was a little weaker/further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Cmc has a bomb! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, ILMRoss said: I was kind of surprised to see that Canadian come in strong and amped, even the GFS was a little weaker/further east. Agreed there. Would be MAJOR ZR concerns even up this way as it gets cranking just south of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Surprise! Euro holding back the energy more at 78 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 WelpSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 @81 it's in about the same spot and slightly weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: Surprise! Euro holding back the energy more at 78 How about the New England storm? Is that kinked back to the southwest any to help with heights/confluence and such? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said: @81 it's in about the same spot and slightly weaker Definitely weaker than the gfs with lower heights over the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 its gonna be a bit more amped than 00Z but not as much as the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Heavy snow breaking out across NC at 15z Sun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Good run for upstate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Definitely weaker than the gfs with lower heights over the SE It is further south than the gfs too at 99 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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