snowmaker13 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: The Euro's verification scores are better than I thought. We are at the 93% confidence range now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Also… comparing the 90hr 6z euro and gfs… the gfs has the surface low near the Tennessee border and deeper. Definitely a much, much better look on the euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I mean. There’s a reason why GSP didn’t cliff dive like this thread. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, BooneWX said: I mean. There’s a reason why GSP didn’t cliff dive like this thread. If you are in our area there is every reason to be upset. Nobody likes a front ender to rain scenario with mainly a mix at the start to boot. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, BooneWX said: I mean. There’s a reason why GSP didn’t cliff dive like this thread. GSP has a consistent track record of being among the best in the business. No doubt about that. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, BooneWX said: I mean. There’s a reason why GSP didn’t cliff dive like this thread. I say this completely in good nature and from a place of levity. But typically, as someone with the username "ILMRoss", when a different user named "BooneWX" tells me not to cliff dive, it's time to cliff dive. Haha 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, BooneWX said: I mean. There’s a reason why GSP didn’t cliff dive like this thread. GSP .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 320 am EST Wednesday: The latest guidance suite is starting to feature a bit better agreement on the overall aspects of the winter storm likely to impact the area over the weekend. However, there remains some variation regarding low tracks, thermal profiles, and QPF for various periods, and these details continue to make precipitation types and amounts highly uncertain. Nearly all solutions have trended toward cutting off the southern portion of the split upper flow near the lower Mississippi River Valley by late Saturday. In a slight role reversal over the past 24 hours, the ECMWF 500 mb prognostic now features a cutoff low with a farther south low center position than the operational GFS. However, both models agree fairly well on the general timing, migrating the system over the Deep/Mid South Sunday and then over the Carolinas Sunday night as the system phases back into the northern stream. Meanwhile, sprawling surface high pressure from southern Ontario to New England will establish a strong cold air damming configuration east of the Appalachians ahead of the storm on Saturday. The resulting surface-based cold layer is becoming one of the more confident aspects of the upcoming weekend storm. The onset timing of wintry precipitation, however, remains uncertain. There are hints of weak and shallow upglide developing over the preexisting baroclinic zone as early as late Friday night or Saturday morning, with the isentropic lift slowly improving the day on Saturday well east of the approaching system. The forecast features below guidance temperatures and wintry ptypes at onset across the northern half. The period of deepest moisture and best forcing now looks slated for Saturday night through Sunday as a Deep South surface wave transitions to the Carolina coast. Strong jet-level divergence is indicated during this period and deformation zone forcing will likely impact our area by Sunday, especially over western NC given the current low track forecast. Precipitation types remain challenging. Profiles have trended to stronger warm nosing across the southern half of the area, with prolonged sleet and southern tier freezing rain now quite possible. However, the operational model runs appear warmer than most of the ensemble members, so much of the QPF could still fall as snow. An ensemble approach has been adopted for weekend profiles, which leads to more snow in the forecast than might be indicated on operational model profiles. The mixed ptype belt should especially impact locations southeast of I- 85, but with a changeover back to snow likely occurring from the west throughout on Sunday night as the system pulls away to the northeast. Scattered upslope snow showers should persist along the TN border counties through Sunday night, and possibly well into Monday, further enhancing snow amounts there. We are still a bit out of the Winter Storm Watch timeframe, so this will remain highlighted in the HWO. The main change will be the addition of sleet and freezing rain to the forecast, especially across the southeast part of the area. Another vigorous shortwave is forecast to drop southeast into the eastern trough Monday before the flow pattern flattens out by Tuesday. This could briefly reinvigorate western mountain snow showers, which may not have completely ended from the weekend system before this wave arrives. Upslope moisture will gradually end Monday night into Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, ILMRoss said: I say this completely in good nature and from a place of levity. But typically, as someone with the username "ILMRoss", when a different user named "BooneWX" tells me not to cliff dive, it's time to cliff dive. Haha Luckily for you, the name doesn’t fit my location anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Nam at 48 continues the trend of somewhat weaker energy dropping down out of Montana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Is weaker a good thing or a bad thing for most of NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Is weaker a good thing or a bad thing for most of NC? Still a little early in the run to see how it plays out. Hr 54 on 850 map low is southwest of where it was modeled at 6z so there’s that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 NAM hangs back the energy more this run. I wouldn't put to much weight too if yet, but it does continue the trend. It is South of the GFS, however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 14 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Is weaker a good thing or a bad thing for most of NC? I believe the "weaker" version would be better for NC folks to keep the Low further south like the EURO , which allows the CAD to hang longer.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Want to see it faster or weaker.. too much separation will let the low pull up too early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguysc Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12z NAM 60-84 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The GFS has the low in Northern Mississippi and the NAM has it in SW Mississippi. Big difference there... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Face value Nam looks better than gfs by end of the run but Nam is so far out still have to wait at least a solid like 36 hrs. Looking to use 3k Nam when it’s in range for llc side note high pressure 4mb’s weaker as well but still in a nice spot by end of the run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 All I know is that Alexa told me this morning I would receive 7.3" of Snow. So I'm confident... 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 These model runs are pretty amazing, especially on the Euro. Honestly with that powerhouse high to the north I'm shocked it isn't going further south. Definitely a very strong storm to say the least, a 10 mb drop in 6 hours is some legit stuff. From 1005 mb over Birmingham to 978 when it's over CT shows just how dynamic this system is. I'd feel confident if I'm in Chattanooga, Greenville & Asheville, and somewhat worried in Charlotte & Raleigh. With the moisture transport & pressure gradient this has all the looks of a serious snow machine 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The gefs mean keeps temps below 28 degrees for the duration in GSO. Which I think is notable, since I would expect it to under do the wedge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12z NAM 60-84I don't like how the low goes from the Gulf coast and is starting to go up through MS at the end of the runSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 Crazy that we were looking at this at 11:00 Monday night before everything started going the wrong direction yesterday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 18 minutes ago, weatherguysc said: 12z NAM 60-84 Good high position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Brick Tamland said: Crazy that we were looking at this at 11:00 Monday night before everything started going the wrong direction yesterday afternoon. It can still happen. Believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: It can still happen. Believe. I know. Just crazy how the models were looking better and better each run, and then 12 hours after that one they started going the other way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just from experience/climo, NAM looks like snow to ice to me. Has negative dewpoints over extreme NE NC at hour 84 which is pretty rare and gives you an idea of how the CAD could be legit' with this. (If you believe the NAM lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Good high position Agree but would love to see it move little more east as shown at the end of the NAM run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, HKY_WX said: Just from experience/climo, NAM looks like snow to ice to me. Has negative dewpoints over extreme NE NC at hour 84 which is pretty rare and gives you an idea of how the CAD could be legit' with this. (If you believe the NAM lol) I also feel like the temp gradient will lead to some pretty intense snowfall rates along and west of the low track, especially with those dews in place 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Somebody will get a foot + of snow out of this.... that looks likely right now near the Blueridge.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 DewsSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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