Jan 15-16 Winter Storm

[Prismshine Productions]

He's been on the board for 10 years. People have explained this to him over and over again.  You're probably wasting your breath. 

My bad for not catching the sarcasm...

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[Buddy1987]

Well peeps. Couple observations waking up here. Watching these things and learning more and more over the years I’ve learned in these setups how biases and known faults of a specific model suite rear their ugly heads. With the 6z OP GFS this is one of those. Pile driving the low up into or west of the spine of the appalachians is a known bias and I would hope that any Met would have my back on this, as I’ve literally seen it on numerous occasions, only to come back down to earth and readjust and align with other guidance. NOW with that being said, there has been a noticeable shift in guidance to allow this storm to be able to build westward due to numerous factors. 
 

Want to point out a couple things from early morning guidance. End of the NAM run has probably the strongest HP in eastern Canada I’ve seen thus far on the models. HR 84 has a 1043 powerhouse sitting in prime position. If you look at the same time, GFS is several mb’s weaker. This is significant for a couple reasons, namely because of the NAM having superiority when it comes to low level resolutions that does best in CAD setups (yes I realize we are talking long range NAM) but also because unless the HP is screaming to get out of the way, the LP will more often than not behave accordingly and be pushed underneath the dense airmass. One thing to watch in subsequent runs and as the NAM comes more into range is how much it weakens the HP. OP GFS weakens it by 6mb’s within a 12 hour time however still leaves it in a decent place, just north of the Lake Placid, Plattsburgh NY area, around the time the system nears. 
 

Now, looking at overnight and early morning runs of the GEFS and EPS, they are still seeing what my money was placed on last night and that is a more “conventional and traditional” track for big money snows north of an i-85 line (of course mix line will fall somewhere in-between I-40 and up to 460 potentially, just dependent on how strong the push of WAA ends up being) 

 

All in all, I still believe this is a WNC, NC/VA border up into SVA beat down, with the system taking a Fayetville/Wilmington line and then into or just east of the VA Capes. 

[Ji]

Guys...it happens to us too but starting a storm thread 6 days out is a big big no no. Too much juju to mush your desired outcome

[buckeyefan1]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Guys...it happens to us too but starting a storm thread 6 days out is a big big no no. Too much juju to mush your desired outcome

Bless your trolling heart  

[WinstonSalemArlington]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

Guys...it happens to us too but starting a storm thread 6 days out is a big big no no. Too much juju to mush your desired outcome

Hey Ji!

[SENC]

Great PHB Folks..

 

From KILM here on the Coast..

 

High pressure nosing in from the northeast on Saturday while a
potent trough dives south into the Ark-La-Tex. The wedge will keep
highs stuck in the low to mid 40s north of I-95 while southern areas
see upper 40s. Saturday night as the upper low crosses the Gulf
States its initial surface low will be directly underneath the upper
low. At the same time height falls and strengthening warm advection
cause falling pressure off the Southeast coast and POPs will be
rising. The 00Z guidance suite is showing some semblance of coming
towards a solution, but at this time it seems that none of them
probably have the evolution of the low level features correct. The
GFS probably looks the most suspect in its (new) depiction of a dual-
centered low though it has some faint support from the Canadian. The
EC solution indicates that the coastal low immediately comes to
dominate especially by 12Z Sunday. The aforementioned congealing of
just about all guidance is for a slightly slower progression as well
as a storm track closer to the coast. For our CWA this means that
the opportunity for wintry precip has decreased. At this time it
looks like what may start as light rain early on will then change to
a chance for wintry precip as the wetbulb process causes
temperatures to fall, especially inland. The closer track suggests
that this window may be small before the warm air aloft overwhelms
the system and most of the event is a cold rain, and possibly a
substantial drought-relieving one at that. It is worth stressing
however that this is only one model run and there still appears to
be an increasing chance for a significant ice storm SOMEWHERE in the
Carolinas. 

[Brick Tamland]

25 minutes ago, burgertime said:

He's been on the board for 10 years. People have explained this to him over and over again.  You're probably wasting your breath. 

Actually, I have never asked before. I assumed this was why, though, but wanted to clarify it.

[Brick Tamland]

37 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Because it drags in tropical air from the Gulf and Atlantic. Arctic air over the CONUS, especially in the Southeast, is extremely frail when it gets pumped full of moisture. There is a reason why places like Siberia get extremely high rates at low QDF and temps, because cold air by nature is drier. When you pump it full of tropical moisture, it can retain latient heat, which is how we get the warm nose due to the fact the Coriolis Effect of Northern Hemisphere anticyclones drags it on shore at the upper levels and at the surface.



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Thank you for the informative and kind response.

[SENC]

I (think) the Modeling (Models), haven't taken this lil tid-bit of Data into account..

 

(Just My 2 pennies here).. ..

As the Low transfers off the Coast, The SST's here, are in fact, WARMER than usual, than other years.. by 10F .. Temps are still reading 62~65F  here on the Beach's.. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Guys...it happens to us too but starting a storm thread 6 days out is a big big no no. Too much juju to mush your desired outcome

December 2018 I bit and started a thread on the 384 FV3-GFS, lost the storm for over a week, and ended up getting it right so D6 thread is nothing

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[Prismshine Productions]

I (think) the Modeling (Models), haven't taken this lil tid-bit of Data into account..
 
(Just My 2 pennies here).. ..
As the Low transfers off the Coast, The SST's here, are in fact, WARMER than usual, than other years.. by 10F .. Temps are still reading 62~65F  here on the Beach's.. 

That will only increase the WAA...

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[kvegas-wx]

17 minutes ago, SENC said:

I (think) the Modeling (Models), haven't taken this lil tid-bit of Data into account..

 

(Just My 2 pennies here).. ..

As the Low transfers off the Coast, The SST's here, are in fact, WARMER than usual, than other years.. by 10F .. Temps are still reading 62~65F  here on the Beach's.. 

Yep, depending upon the final track your lil tidbit could end up being the nail in the coffin for most everyone outside WNC and a nasty ice storm for plenty of us.  Pass!

[buckeyefan1]

Not sure if this was posted overnight 

[sarcean]

3 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Not sure if this was posted overnight 

Got the Charlotte/CLT version to compare?

[Prismshine Productions]

FYI 6z EPS cut the totals again

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[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

4 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

FYI 6z EPS cut the totals again

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Less amped = less precip. Run was colder 

[Prismshine Productions]

Less amped = less precip. Run was colder 

At least that is a step in the right direction...

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[franklin NCwx]

6 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

FYI 6z EPS cut the totals again

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Maps?

[BornAgain13]

Eps and 6z Control still paint 6-9" in mby. @Buddy1987, both show 8-10" for you at the moment... it was colder.... but less amped.

[Prismshine Productions]

Maps?

Here

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[Leesville Wx Hawk]

I’m not blaming ya Brick!  We had it seemingly wrapped up.  Hope we can salvage something.

[Snow dog]

4 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Here

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Nice run for the upstate SC folks!

[franklin NCwx]

8 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Here

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Thanks! Looks improved from the 18z run.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER88]

Still 100 hours for us in NC. 40 more hours before I truly say it is a done deal. Euro and UKMET still give me reason to hope here in RDU.

[eyewall]

Current status:

Boone: We're still good but have the munchies

Charlotte: So you're saying there's a chance, yes!

Winston-Salem: Checking the fuel supply in the generator

Greensboro: Will it be cold enough to keep the beer cold outside?

Raleigh-Durham: Tanking Old Tuffy

Fayetteville: When does the ABC store open?

Wilmington: Sleeping it off

[Prismshine Productions]

Here is what I see for SC *as it stands* (subject to change):

I-95 to the coast: rain
I-20/I-77 to I-95: IP/ZR with snow mixed in, turning all rain
I-85 to I-20/I-77: Ice Storm Alley
North of I-85: Snow

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[ILMRoss]

Man I am so cooked this morning. I stayed up for the 00z Euro after telling myself I wouldn't and got 5 hours of zzzs. Staying up for the Euro is the meteorological equivalent of a tequila shot, it seems like a good idea at the time but 9/10 times it sucks and you just feel worse the next day. My cats could sense the vibes were off and their meowing was shriller and more frequent this morning. I'm subsisting on leftover Armadillo Grille

I can't believe the GFS. *Godfather voice* look how they've massacred my boy. They big wigs in DC actually threw enough money at it to make it competitive and it's no longer our whipping boy. I'm still really unsure about how much it amplifies the trough but if it scores a rout here it likely realigns how I view the model. If it goes any further NW then "welllll, it won't barrel through the CAD wedge...."" is a null issue because a Birmingham/Knoxville/Pitt path is completely realistic (there's no wedge on the other side of the apps!)

If you're looking for optimism this morning, it's this:

• Convection Allowing Models haven't gotten a crack at this thing yet
• Our offshore bomb Thursday still probably has some kinks to iron out and that will help decide what kind of environment our shortwave is getting into
• There were hints (like LaCroix flavoring strength hints) of the shortwave beginning to look weaker on multiple models and if we can reel in a weakening/flattening trend its a different ballgame.

We're down, but not out, unfortunately climatology is putting Patrick Mahomes out there and we're wheeling out Sam Darnold. It is what it is. 

[buckeyefan1]

 

[burrel2]

Other good things to consider… ukmet is showing the ideal scenario and has as good or better 5 day verification Scores compared to gfs. Euro is still a solid hit for western areas and lines up perfectly with gefs/eps. 06z Icon trended in a good direction with our storm. And like ilmross poitned out… gfs has corrected to flatter/weaker/East with the wave diving across our area tomorrow. 
 

lastly, even in the most amped runs of the gfs… most of the forum gets a winter storm warning criteria ice/sleet storm. (Beggars can’t be choosers).

[olafminesaw]

7 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

 

Brings to mind all the hurricanes where the SE ridge was under-modeled and the storm came south. Totally different and I'm sure the model biased are not the same, but looking at that panel it's hard not to think the storm will come South.