lilj4425 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: How much of that is sleet I wonder??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
85snowline Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: This looks as good as anything I've seen posted so far! Am I missing something?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ji said: Looks bad to mehttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=seus&pkg=T850&runtime=2022011200&fh=120 GFS at least for NC folks was further northwest and more amped. Euro: GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Euro is a better front end thump before the coastal takes over. The low also isnt as far norh over the tennessee valley as the GFS. But it needs to stop trending north now, even for western areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I know there is a lot of doom and gloom but let's see at 12z if Euro is making a trend back to a weaker more Miller A type solution. This was a good step IMHO. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, burgertime said: I know there is a lot of doom and gloom but let's see at 12z if Euro is making a trend back to a weaker more Miller A type solution. This was a good step IMHO. Agreed. At this point I think the most important thing is getting this shortwave less amped, skinnier, and quicker. Euro took a nice step towards that. The jump warmer scared me but think there's bigger fish to fry upstairs first. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: Agreed. At this point I think the most important thing is getting this shortwave less amped, skinnier, and quicker. Euro took a nice step towards that. Yea I thought early on with our energy Thurs/Friday it was already weaker than the GFS. As always the waiting game. Hope it was worth staying up for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 EPS looks closer to the OP run. Def took a jump from 12z with being less suppressed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 RDU you folks look away...you probably won't like the EPS run tonight 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 GSP is going with an ensemble blend for now due to the uncertainty: LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 320 am EST Wednesday: The latest guidance suite is starting to feature a bit better agreement on the overall aspects of the winter storm likely to impact the area over the weekend. However, there remains some variation regarding low tracks, thermal profiles, and QPF for various periods, and these details continue to make precipitation types and amounts highly uncertain. Nearly all solutions have trended toward cutting off the southern portion of the split upper flow near the lower Mississippi River Valley by late Saturday. In a slight role reversal over the past 24 hours, the ECMWF 500 mb prognostic now features a cutoff low with a farther south low center position than the operational GFS. However, both models agree fairly well on the general timing, migrating the system over the Deep/Mid South Sunday and then over the Carolinas Sunday night as the system phases back into the northern stream. Meanwhile, sprawling surface high pressure from southern Ontario to New England will establish a strong cold air damming configuration east of the Appalachians ahead of the storm on Saturday. The resulting surface-based cold layer is becoming one of the more confident aspects of the upcoming weekend storm. The onset timing of wintry precipitation, however, remains uncertain. There are hints of weak and shallow upglide developing over the preexisting baroclinic zone as early as late Friday night or Saturday morning, with the isentropic lift slowly improving the day on Saturday well east of the approaching system. The forecast features below guidance temperatures and wintry ptypes at onset across the northern half. The period of deepest moisture and best forcing now looks slated for Saturday night through Sunday as a Deep South surface wave transitions to the Carolina coast. Strong jet-level divergence is indicated during this period and deformation zone forcing will likely impact our area by Sunday, especially over western NC given the current low track forecast. Precipitation types remain challenging. Profiles have trended to stronger warm nosing across the southern half of the area, with prolonged sleet and southern tier freezing rain now quite possible. However, the operational model runs appear warmer than most of the ensemble members, so much of the QPF could still fall as snow. An ensemble approach has been adopted for weekend profiles, which leads to more snow in the forecast than might be indicated on operational model profiles. The mixed ptype belt should especially impact locations southeast of I- 85, but with a changeover back to snow likely occurring from the west throughout on Sunday night as the system pulls away to the northeast. Scattered upslope snow showers should persist along the TN border counties through Sunday night, and possibly well into Monday, further enhanching snow amounts there. We are still a bit out of the Winter Storm Watch timeframe, so this will remain highlighted in the HWO. The main change will be the addition of sleet and freezing rain to the forecast, especially across the southeast part of the area. Another vigorous shortwave is forecast to drop southeast into the eastern trough Monday before the flow pattern flattens out by Tuesday. This could briefly reinvigorate western mountain snow showers, which may not have completely ended from the weekend system before this wave arrives. Upslope moisture will gradually end Monday night into Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 ICON is not a terrible look. Lines up with the Euro/EPS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 It’s 18z run was what we needed than 0z came in like GFS…would be nice to start seeing an south easterly trend today toward ensembles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
85snowline Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 For what it's worth. Last night AccuWeather had Concord at 36 degrees with wintry precip for Sunday. They have changed Sundays forecast to 31 degrees with snow, stating a Winter Storm is possible. I'm just gonna stare at that for awhile.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6z GFS is a mess 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguysc Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6Z GFS Hrs 84-114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Nearly 2 inches of ZR for GSP and 1.5 for CLT 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Yea 6z is a ZR nightmare. Loads of WAA up front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguysc Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Lights out for weeks/months for the upstate of SC if that comes true. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, weatherguysc said: Lights out for weeks/months for the upstate of SC if that comes true. Ya, I'm good on that. If the track keeps moving west I don't see how the CAD would hold for that much ZR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
85snowline Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, weatherguysc said: Lights out for weeks/months for the upstate of SC if that comes true. This will NOT verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguysc Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, 85snowline said: This will NOT verify. I sure hope not. I'm beginning to wonder if the 6Z got a bad data ingest because of how crazy the low moved around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
85snowline Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Hey guys... A Storm can create it's own cold air right?. What's that called and could we see it with this storm? Thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, weatherguysc said: I sure hope not. I'm beginning to wonder if the 6Z got a bad data ingest because of how crazy the low moved around. I haven't seen a situation with a low thru TN like that and a CAD holding on that strong. Still a long ways to go 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, 85snowline said: Hey guys... A Storm can create it's own cold air right?. What's that called and could we see it with this storm? Thx Yes, the "making it's own cold" would come from the ULL on the backend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: How the heck does it go from Birmingham to Memphis? LOL. Its evolution of the features is a mess...my guess is the low track in the GFS depiction would go from Columbus-Augusta-SE NC-NYC. It basically does not transfer off as quickly as I think it would in reality 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Realistically is there anything we can look for to start reversing this NW trend? Cause right now its in absolute overdrive, that's gotta be like 7 or 8 straight runs. Went from a borderline Miller A setup to cutting west of the Apps in the blink of an eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguysc Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6Z GEFS has the low exiting southern Georgia and hugging the SC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguysc Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6Z GEFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, weatherguysc said: 6Z GEFS has the low exiting southern Georgia and hugging the SC coast. That evolution is more realistic if you ask me 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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