CaryWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Sandstorm94 said: Totals went up from 12z Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Yeah, it's been coming north to align with other model guidance. UKMET was way south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, Tealsnowball said: No, I agree with you. Thinking it will readjust a bit east somewhat. At this point though I'd be ecstatic with 4 inches of "crunch"! Seriously agree here. You can give me 5” of absolute concrete compacted and I would be ecstatic. Been a good couple of years since we’ve even gotten anything remotely good. Beggars def can’t be choosers. Heavy snowfall that accumulates is essentially a bonus at this juncture 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 My Take before I retire for the night: Not great stuff here. I think that another culprit for our poor runs today has been the general width of our parent trough, which has increased as the day goes on. If you recall, our system a few days ago was a little tighter/wound up. A larger, wider trough is going to churn eastward slower which is a pretty bedrock rule in meteorology, and that a slower, wider system is able to pump up heights ahead of it a little more. As Webb said in his tweets, that downstream ridge amplification is allowing this thing to achieve a negative tilt a little faster and gain latitude. That north stream shortwave i mentioned earlier today is also totally not helping things and letting our system kick NE. As for the Ops/Ens split, I'm unsure, but there's likely something to do with the coarser resolution. Webb is tweeting that it's convection and that the coarser ensembles aren't handling the convection and latent heating as well and if this were a warmer month I'd be inclined to agree. However, this system doesn't really have a ton of convection until it his MS/AL and by that time the difference is pretty glaring, so I don't think it's that. There's another way that coarser model runs suck and that is elevation rendering. The Rockies in a singular GFS ensemble member probably look like something out of Minecraft while the OP has a finer rendering. Since elevation affects vorticity (mountains compress/stretch the air column), I wonder if that is causing the disconnect. If there's a sprinkle of optimism, it's this: Seems like the variance of the GEFS Ens pressure fields increased. Look at below. That yellow shading is variance between the ensembles, and I thought it was interesting that it jumped in a heart shaped zone stretching from Memphis through Savannah to Norfolk. It seems like a lot of ensembles have their own idea with how to make the transfer from the inland low to the coast, and it doesn't seem like this is a done deal yet. (The caveat is that if this whole thing continues to edge NW, we may just be looking at an apps runner. But we'll see about that). Whatever. Hoping the Euro looks OK and that the 12z suite tomorrow is better. 4 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: My Take before I retire for the night: Great write up! Especially in the ops/ens. Very informative. As usual with winter storms in the south it’s going to come down to 2 days out before we really know anything. What a headache for the weather services. I’m split on this. On the one hand the OP just doesn’t look “right” given the setup…but what is more likely? A once in a lifetime Miller A or the usual thing which is a Miller B hot mess that only folks north and west of I-40 cash in on? Time will tell the tale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, burgertime said: Great write up! Especially in the ops/ens. Very informative. As usual with winter storms in the south it’s going to come down to 2 days out before we really know anything. What a headache for the weather services. I’m split on this. On the one hand the OP just doesn’t look “right” given the setup…but what is more likely? A once in a lifetime Miller A or the usual thing which is a Miller B hot mess that only folks north and west of I-40 cash in on? Time will tell the tale. Definitely the Miller B one. Lol. Nothing ever goes right winter weather wise around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Bring us back from the brink with some Euro pbp, Burger. Here we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, jrips27 said: Bring us back from the brink with some Euro pbp, Burger. Here we go I'll try haha. On my phone as I didn't get a good sleep and I'm gonna have a look at this then hit the hay. So may be more of a synopsis. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I'll try haha. On my phone as I didn't get a good sleep and I'm gonna have a look at this then hit the hay. So may be more of a synopsis.I covered the GFS, now I pass the baton back to you, give us hope!Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Doing a real terrible job retiring. One more thing I noticed. Check out the GFS trend making this Thursday deal tighter and nudging it to the east on every run. Would be a shame if this eventually happened to our storm 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: Doing a real terrible job retiring. One more thing I noticed. Check out the GFS trend making this Thursday deal tighter and nudging it to the east on every run. Would be a shame if this eventually happened to our storm Stay up for the party! Out to 48 and not huge differences just yet. One thing that may give hope is previous runs had energy in the southeast stronger than it is now at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 One thing as well that gives me a bit of hope is how the Euro is handling the energy in the south vs. the GFS at around the 50+ hours. It's pushing it further south than the GFS is on it's OP runs. We're in a weather pattern so usually you're gonna repeat things to a degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Maddness for sure. Even at my location in the northern foothills latest runs have me mixing with or going to ice and at first I was thinking I may miss everything. atleasf we have something to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Out to 81 energy is a bit weaker than the GFS and the 12z Euro run. Also a tick slower than the 12z Euro run 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 @87 our energy is south of the GFS. 00z GFS has it at the Nebraska border while the Euro has it at the TX/OK border. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Out to 93 now it's caught up with the GFS but it's weaker. Not closed off yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Both the 12z Euro and 00z GFS had the low closed at this point. So this run of the Euro is seeing it not as strong. Now we'll see what happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Looks much warmer at 850 than the 12z. Especially closer to the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Out to 105 this looks like it's gonna be better than the GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Looks like less confluence over the NE and a little warmer ahead of the system in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 @108 weaker and more positively tilted. It's trying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12z vs. the new 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 @111 lots of WAA....the good news is, it's not as a bad as the GFS. The bad news is there is a lot of warm air with it as others have pointed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Sleetfest 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 @123 WNC is getting hammered. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Given the GFS this is not too bad. Very curious to see if in future runs it makes it less and less amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Given the GFS this is not too bad. Very curious to see if in future runs it makes it less and less amped. Looks bad to mehttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=seus&pkg=T850&runtime=2022011200&fh=120 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 GIF of 500mb. Arrow is the starting point of our energy. Also another piece drops from Canada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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