jjwxman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Geez… the Triad went from 1-2ft of snow to a crippling ice storm in 24 hours via the GFS. What’s next? Tornado outbreak by the 00z run Thursday? What can you say, it’s Winter in the SE. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 GEFS out to hr 66, give me a bitSent from my SM-S115DL using TapatalkWho cares about the ensembles. They seem to behind the curve 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Not sure how the GEFS can continue to hold serve after that run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Not sure how the GEFS can continue to hold serve after that run.Hr 99 on Weatherbell.. Wont be long til we seeSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Hour 108 GEFS Snow totals trending towards OP. Looking like game over for a lot of us unless a miracle happens. Flooding in January anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vicious Fluid Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Professional lurker here with the utmost appreciation for all you fine folks who know way more than me. The tiniest difference in temps will determine if I get very cold and wet on my way to work on Sat, or if i need to be prepared to pack an overnight (well, over-day) bag. The hospital I work at is 35-40 min out, and it's all back roads. Rather be safe than sorry... Crossing my fingers that we get a fraction of an inch of snow rather than ice! North GA can be a bit unpredictable with what kind of precip falls, so usually i pay close attention to ground temps. Someone may have mentioned this earlier, but does anyone here happen to have ground temp insights before/after the storm? I work nights and am always weary about ice, especially since GA drivers can barely drive in rain, lest winter weather. Snow or cold rain are fine. But icy roads = big problems in this area. Please delete if this belongs in banter. And thank you guys for being, well, generally pretty "cool". (See what I did there?) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Hour 108 GEFS Snow totals trending towards OP. That's what I'm seeing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 OP GFS remains well west of the ensemble, but that being said the ensemble just keeps following it every step of the way, just lagging behind by a few runs. Eric Webb on twitter basically saying cling to the GEFS at your own peril, and the OP likely has a better handle, isn't making me feel any better about where things are heading. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Snow totals gonna be insane on the GEFS this run for the mtns. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Snow totals gonna be insane on the GEFS this run for the mtns. Exactly, much higher totals than 18z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 OP GFS remains well west of the ensemble, but that being said the ensemble just keeps following it every step of the way, just lagging behind by a few runs. Eric Webb on twitter basically saying cling to the GEFS at your own peril, and the OP likely has a better handle, isn't making me feel any better about where things are heading. Yeah, 3 ensembles on the LP placement map are west of the apps this runSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Even the Carolina midlands went up a bitSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Hr132Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 CMC NW as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Canadian following suit 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Delete this thread while we still can. Only if the EPS cavesSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguysc Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The low tracks across southern Georgia and off the coast of SC on the GEFS which appears to be quite further south than the GDPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
85snowline Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, JoshM said: Canadian following suit What's with the L in N Alabama? Wasn't it in the FL panhandle at lunch?? Sheesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 CMC still keeps cad locked in more so than gfs. Looking at individual ensembles there are still some nice looking placement of the LP’s. All is not lost guys. I guarantee a whole bunch in here would take a raging sleet fest than a driving rain storm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 CMC still keeps cad locked in more so than gfs. Looking at individual ensembles there are still some nice looking placement of the LP’s. All is not lost guys. I guarantee a whole bunch in here would take a raging sleet fest than a driving rain storm. Or a light glaze of ZR... Depending on how desperate one isSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Funnily enough, the heart of the CAD area is colder compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 UKMET looks to be different but could just be playing catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Canadian ZR map is ugly for 85 corridor 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 UK snowmap 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I am still in a camp (and may be the only soul left) to where I believe the models are being ultra aggressive in driving the LP too far north and west. You look at past events and with the baroclinic zone/Gulf Stream, a lot of storms tend to stick there. My money at the moment is a Fayetville/Wilmington to VA Capes track. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguysc Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I don't know if anybody posted the GSP long term discussion from this afternoon based on the 12z products. We'll see what they have to say on the next round of updates at 4:30a or so. Quote .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 240 pm EST Tuesday: Looking ahead to the weekend, all attention turns toward the possibility of a winter storm that would affect the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia beginning perhaps as early as Saturday afternoon and possibly continuing through the better part of Sunday...emphasis on the word "possible". It is worth noting that the 12Z ECMWF has come around to the GFS idea that a strong short wave dropping southeastward along the High Plains would ultimately cut off an upper low over the central/srn Plains Friday night into Saturday. Also worth noting is the relative run-to-run consistency seen in the operational GFS with this feature. The setup begins Friday night into Saturday as the developing split in the flow helps to slow the progress of a large continental sfc high moving from Ontario, down across the lower lakes, to Upstate NY/New England Saturday/Saturday night. This would provide the necessary source for cold air prior to the arrival of the precip associated with the upper low, which operational guidance suggests will come across the lower MS Valley region Saturday night. The operational models show partial thickness values low enough to support at least a mix with wintry precip as we acquire isentropic lift on Saturday that could force the development of said precip by the afternoon. If this develops as it could, essentially as an activating warm front, it would help to lock in the cooler sfc temps before the main mid/upper forcing arrives from the west. The operational models all show a closed upper low rolling east on Sunday, moving overhead or to the south of the fcst area, then offshore/northeast on Sunday night. Be that as it may, this is not the only possible solution, and some of the ensemble members show very different outcomes to the upper/sfc pattern. Looking at the GEFS...there has been a definite trend toward more wintry precip across more of the fcst area, with the majority of ensemble members at 12Z showing wintry precip affecting nearly the entire fcst area Saturday night/Sunday. The plume diagrams, and their supposed total snow accumulations, appear most tantalizing. However, there are as many ensemble members showing minimal wintry precip as there are showing a great deal, and some still showing none at all. Our forecast will reflect developing confidence in the wintry scenario but limits the precip probs to the chance range for the time being. The trend is toward more of a snow possibility along/north of I-85 and more mixing/changing to sleet/freezing rain south of I-85, but this is only one scenario. The track of the low will determine how strong of a warm nose might develop from the south, which would greatly affect the precip-type distribution. The QPF blend right now is especially modest, and the conservative approach is preferable for a system that is still out on Day 4/5. In spite of the trend, readers are cautioned to manage their expectations...at least for the time being. Stay tuned. If this system develops as it could, we would be in for some NW flow snow on the TN border Sunday night into Monday, otherwise the remainder of the period would be quiet with a large sfc high settling across the region Monday into Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 UK snowmapTotals went up from 12zSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tealsnowball Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: I am still in a camp (and may be the only soul left) to where I believe the models are being ultra aggressive in driving the LP too far north and west. You look at past events and with the baroclinic zone/Gulf Stream, a lot of storms tend to stick there. My money at the moment is a Fayetville/Wilmington to VA Capes track. No, I agree with you. Thinking it will readjust a bit east somewhat. At this point though I'd be ecstatic with 4 inches of "crunch"! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I am still in a camp (and may be the only soul left) to where I believe the models are being ultra aggressive in driving the LP too far north and west. You look at past events and with the baroclinic zone/Gulf Stream, a lot of storms tend to stick there. My money at the moment is a Fayetville/Wilmington to VA Capes track. I'm in that camp too, I'm banking on a coastal track because we always lose the OP globals in this rangeSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Sandstorm94 said: Totals went up from 12z Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk If I’m not mistaken isn’t The UK normally a precursor to Euro ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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