BornAgain13 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 This is not the run you want from the GFS .... the north trend continues... to amped... this run will be more about ice and or rain from what it looks like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Digs too far west again. Quite similar to 18z but a bit more amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 108Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, BornAgain13 said: This is not the run you want from the GFS .... the north trend continues... to amped... this run will be more about ice and or rain from what it looks like. 1033 HP in a great spot for funneling purposes at the minimum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Raging sleet storm even for mountains 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 114Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSO_WX Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 @108 I don’t really see anything meaningfully different yet on this GFS run, maybe a little slower and CADs a little weaker, not fantastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSO_WX Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 If you're in central NC, trend is not your friend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, GSO_WX said: Bye bye storm. Almost had ya. Winters in the SE have become worse over the last decade no doubt about it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, wncsnow said: Damn man no big deal only 20.6” here good freakin god 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Bye bye storm. Almost had ya. Winters in the SE have become worse over the last decade no doubt about it. Oh cmon now it’s been the ops for ensembles now for several runs. This is far from being ironed out 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 What an ugly run, on to the ensembles Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Damn man no big deal only 20.6” here good freakin god Whoa! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Can't wait to see the GEFS for this nightmare run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Ugly for some, not others. Wiggle room is getting tight now though even for us mountains and foothills folks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, CntrTim85 said: Two more runs and you'll be under a flood watch! Lmfaooo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Very sharp cut off to the snow... shows around 7" here , with around 20" for @Buddy1987. Goes from heavy snow to a sleet fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 26 minutes ago, calculus1 said: If you guys think I am arguing against using ensembles in forecasting, I am not. I am arguing against displaying a map that gives precision probabilities. If WRAL derives their “probabilities” from ensembles, I still disagree with their language. If they said “14 out of 50 ensemble members indicated 3 inches or more of snow for Clinton” or even “28% of ensemble members indicated 3 inches or more of snow for Clinton”, I would have no issue with those statements. Those are indisputable facts based off model output. But equating such fractions of ensemble members to probabilities is a misuse of statistics, in my opinion. The probability of a success (getting three inches of snow or more, in this case) is equal to the number of successes divided by the number of possible outcomes (failures + successes). The ensemble members do not represent all the possible outcomes; they only represent approximately 50 of the infinite number of possible outcomes. Thus, we can’t really say there is a 28% probability of something happening based off ensemble members. In fact, I would argue there’s really no way to calculate such a probability, because it’s impossible to account for all the possible outcomes that arise from tweaking just one minuscule atmospheric condition somewhere over the entire globe. It’s the language that I take issue with, not the use of ensembles. If they were to change their title to “Percent of Ensemble Members that Predict 3 Inches of Snow”, I would see that as much more transparent. As it is, I think it’s a misleading graphic. My head exploded, but I agree with you. I don't know how you could give a realistic probability of snowfall occurring at a given location 5 days out. If you had 10 possible outcomes and knew only 3 led to snowfall but didn't know which of the 10 would occur but did know that each had an equal chance of occurring, then it would be easy to conclude that there is a 30% chance of snow. That's unrealistic though. On the other hand you have to develop messaging that is framed within a forecast that the general public can consume and understand. It's probably always going to have a subjective quality to it because you can't quantify the entire possibility set or the likelihood of each possibility for any future event (or non-event) on any given date. Idk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, BornAgain13 said: Very sharp cut off to the snow... shows around 7" here , with around 20" for @Buddy1987. Goes from heavy snow to a sleet fest. If this were the final solution I’d bet 10$ it would be tainted for sure even up here. I will take what I can get. These last two storms royally screwed me. I need at least a “decent” one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 GEFS out to hr 66, give me a bitSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Jeez man that was pretty abysmal. We regressed on just about every important thing to look at lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Was any of the upper air data from the recon mission used for this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, wncsnow said: Was any of the upper air data from the recon mission used for this run? I believe I saw something that said there was either 20 or 23 dropsondes infused into the GFS data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
85snowline Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Can the endless chatter regarding WRALs silly % map go somewhere else please. Thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: I believe I saw something that said there was either 20 or 23 dropsondes infused into the GFS data Welp.. maybe that will help with any further big trends 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Welp.. maybe that will help with any further big trends Yes to be exact there were 21 dropsondes. Message issued by the Senior Duty Meteorologist out of College Park MD. I am salivating to see what GEFS looks like. It’s been a war now brewing between ops and ensembles. Canadian up next 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Was any of the upper air data from the recon mission used for this run? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The setup sort of reminds me of Jan 2016 but possibly more inland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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