Beach Snow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Was just going to post that…96 noticeable shift south on LP 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Regarding the Icon and the low pressure position. Yes, it looks like the low has shifted south based on the "L" positions. However, if you look at the pressure circles, I think the "L" can sometimes be a bit misleading as they sometimes look a bit off center. Does anyone know how they determine exactly where to put the "L" on the map as sometime it seems to be a bit off center compared to the circle of lowest pressure. Just trying to get educated here. Also, I do see the stronger High and that there's stronger ridging going on east of the mountains. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: Regarding the Icon and the low pressure position. Yes, it looks like the low has shifted south based on the "L" positions. However, if you look at the pressure circles, I think the "L" can sometimes be a bit misleading as they sometimes look a bit off center. Does anyone know how they determine exactly where to put the "L" on the map as sometime it seems to be a bit off center compared to the circle of lowest pressure. Just trying to get educated here. Also, I do see the stronger High and that there's stronger ridging going on east of the mountains. TW If you look at the 500 map you can clearly see that the vort was more reminiscent of the icons 6z/12z runs. Energy is strong and closed over southwestern Missouri and more in line with guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Toss the ICON, it went Atl-Columbia-CLTSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Almost identical to 12z run…18z must have been a fluke 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Sandstorm94 said: Toss the ICON, it went Atl-Columbia-CLT Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Lol toss that at your own risk but all models have been trending NW. Pretty soon the low will be in Tennessee. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Lol toss that at your own risk but all models have been trending NW. Pretty soon the low will be in Tennessee.The good ol' Mack Apps Rubber never fails...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Icon skipped from 96 to 117. 117 LP is over Wilmington area. 120 up in the VA Capes area. This run is amped ala the ops runs of gfs and euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, ILMRoss said: TBH those ensemble graphics are manna from forecasting gods at this range. There’s a shape, you get to communicate a pseudo-snowmap well before it’s responsible to put together an actual map but you also get to absolve blame to the model in case things go wrong. I can blame them. I interned there back in the day and one of my good met friends (no comment on who) is on the team; they’re smart cookies and I generally think they thread the needle pretty well of tipping their hand while also being responsible with what they put out. 46 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: They heavily use ensembles, which have been been trending from flatter and weaker to stronger and more wintry as the Ops have trended from adequately strong and favorable to more amped warmer aloft. If the Ops continue to trend in that direction, you can expect the ensembles to follow and WRAL to follow that. If you guys think I am arguing against using ensembles in forecasting, I am not. I am arguing against displaying a map that gives precision probabilities. If WRAL derives their “probabilities” from ensembles, I still disagree with their language. If they said “14 out of 50 ensemble members indicated 3 inches or more of snow for Clinton” or even “28% of ensemble members indicated 3 inches or more of snow for Clinton”, I would have no issue with those statements. Those are indisputable facts based off model output. But equating such fractions of ensemble members to probabilities is a misuse of statistics, in my opinion. The probability of a success (getting three inches of snow or more, in this case) is equal to the number of successes divided by the number of possible outcomes (failures + successes). The ensemble members do not represent all the possible outcomes; they only represent approximately 50 of the infinite number of possible outcomes. Thus, we can’t really say there is a 28% probability of something happening based off ensemble members. In fact, I would argue there’s really no way to calculate such a probability, because it’s impossible to account for all the possible outcomes that arise from tweaking just one minuscule atmospheric condition somewhere over the entire globe. It’s the language that I take issue with, not the use of ensembles. If they were to change their title to “Percent of Ensemble Members that Predict 3 Inches of Snow”, I would see that as much more transparent. As it is, I think it’s a misleading graphic. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Icon skipped from 96 to 117. 117 LP is over Wilmington area. 120 up in the VA Capes area. This run is amped ala the ops runs of gfs and euro A little to amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, BornAgain13 said: A little to amped. Maybe for you hahahahahaha j/k would like to see it suppressed some for wiggle room purposes but man if I’m referencing mby it is a beat down up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Maybe for you hahahahahaha j/k would like to see it suppressed some for wiggle room purposes but man if I’m referencing mby it is a beat down up this way Northern VA gets crushed this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Where is Burger for the pbp? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Where is Burger for the pbp? Sleeping? It’s 4:47am in Amsterdam. Lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, jrips27 said: Makes sense to get this data as soon as possible. Huge expenditures for the eastern seaboard metro areas and scheduling are up for decision making very soon. Weekend overtime work to boot. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Lol... almost a whole page on the icon 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Burger's likely in bed folks. He's not up for a few more hours. He's on the euro clock 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 He did say he'd see us for the 00z runs. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Subtle difference at 42... Slightly lower heights in the west and over the CarolinasSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Lol... almost a whole page on the icon Haha had too! 18z was giving some hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 If you guys think I am arguing against using ensembles in forecasting, I am not. I am arguing against displaying a map that gives precision probabilities. If WRAL derives their “probabilities” from ensembles, I still disagree with their language. If they said “14 out of 50 ensemble members indicated 3 inches or more of snow for Clinton” or even “28% of ensemble members indicated 3 inches or more of snow for Clinton”, I would have no issue with those statements. Those are indisputable facts based off model output. But equating such fractions of ensemble members to probabilities is a misuse of statistics, in my opinion. The probability of a success (getting three inches of snow or more, in this case) is equal to the number of successes divided by the number of possible outcomes (failures + successes). The ensemble members do not represent all the possible outcomes; they only represent approximately 50 of the infinite number of possible outcomes. Thus, we can’t really say there is a 28% probability of something happening based off ensemble members. In fact, I would argue there’s really no way to calculate such a probability, because it’s impossible to account for all the possible outcomes that arise from tweaking just one minuscule atmospheric condition somewhere over the entire globe. It’s the language that I take issue with, not the use of ensembles. If they were to change their title to “Percent of Ensemble Members that Predict 3 Inches of Snow”, I would see that as much more transparent. As it is, I think it’s a misleading graphic.I agree with all of this. I see the point. It’s not a perfect graphic but on a snow week in news when you have 100 people asking you about the storm in social, when you have to coordinate messaging, when you have to produce a couple of afternoon/evening shows and oh on top of all of that do a bit of forecasting it’s a time saver and a “don’t let perfect get in the way of good” kind of graphic. I’m tuning out the 00z ICON I thought it looked kind of wonky 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 54, energy slightly SW of 18z...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Slightly more amped at 78Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 84 a tick north of 18zSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Literal bowling ball...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 50/50 is 14 mbar deeper at hr 84 compared to 18z. That's the shortwave that got aircraft data, wonder if that's impacting it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 90Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Apps runner soon. Wow what a shift. Getting harder to get a solid set up in most areas of NC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 102Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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