StantonParkHoya Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, eyewall said: Yeah this is looking more and more like an I-77 special I hate to say. Really unfortunate it can’t just pull an ICON and work out for everyone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 Can't deny the trends with the Euro and GFS today away from a huge snow storm for many in NC to more ice and rain. The low is just going too far inland in NC. We need it off the coast. Really frustrating because we have the CAD and temps cold enough for a big snow storm if the low was just farther east instead of coming inland so amped up and with the killer warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Anyone have any idea how accurate RGEM is toward the end of its runs? Looks to be a little east of the GFS position comparing. Someone with a red tag or with much more knowledge than me can maybe explain known tendencies of GFS, i.e. driving LP's into cold domes or scouring out low level cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 I'd like to interrupt the pity party by noting that the 18z GEFS appears colder, stronger with the CAD, further south with our ULL, and with more separation with our northern stream "kicker" compared with the 12z GEFS. Ok, carry on. 8 4 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, ILMRoss said: I'd like to interrupt the pity party by noting that the 18z GEFS appears colder, stronger with the CAD, further south with our ULL, and with more separation with our northern stream "kicker" compared with the 12z GEFS. Ok, carry on. I saw that too but I’m still learning so didn’t want to make a idiot out of myself. I still think ensembles are the way to go at this stage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Anyone have any idea how accurate RGEM is toward the end of its runs? Looks to be a little east of the GFS position comparing. Someone with a red tag or with much more knowledge than me can maybe explain known tendencies of GFS, i.e. driving LP's into cold domes or scouring out low level cold air. I really don't use it outside of 48 hours. It's fun to look beyond, but take it with a grain of salt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: I'd like to interrupt the pity party by noting that the 18z GEFS appears colder, stronger with the CAD, further south with our ULL, and with more separation with our northern stream "kicker" compared with the 12z GEFS. Ok, carry on. Yep. Important to not come and go with the deterministic runs 4+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 23 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: Would love to have that 6 inches of snow eveb with some mix. But the mood now sounds like people don't believe it will be that much and we'll have more mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Anybody have the GEFS map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Where are you at born again ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: I'd like to interrupt the pity party by noting that the 18z GEFS appears colder, stronger with the CAD, further south with our ULL, and with more separation with our northern stream "kicker" compared with the 12z GEFS. Ok, carry on. So the ops are getting worse but the ensembles are getting better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 So the ops are getting worse but the ensembles are getting better. Like every storm... Always happensSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Anybody have the GEFS map? 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 To ILM's point, 18z MUCH better for us winter lovers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: To ILM's point, 18z MUCH better for us winter lovers. Only a couple panels with the lp on shore? wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 ensemble mean still has the MSLP just off the coast.. not buying the inland track yet 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 31 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: Who ever is to the immediate west of this sleet is going to be piled on with snow. Wherever it sets up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 I mean look at this. Our ULL? Deeper. CAD signal? More robust. CAD high? Lets strengthen that bad boy by 4 MB. Our villainous kicker SW? It's hanging back a little. Our surface low? Well, I thought that was a little more neutral but whatever. I'm generally sanguine (for the triangle). The GFS is concerning, but I'm dubious with how much it beefs up the ULL. It's just simply hard to get rolling bowling balls that large. I also think that the GFS, with 4 free runs that everybody sees, gets a little more "press" than the other models, which gives it a lot of influence on the vibes. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Wow said: ensemble mean still has the MSLP just off the coast.. not buying the inland track yet Crazy how different the ops and ensembles are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Looks like a snow map you would see in the rockies. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, Wow said: ensemble mean still has the MSLP just off the coast.. not buying the inland track yet It's most likely a track in between the two. Similar to the euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 15 minutes ago, Ghicks said: Where are you at born again ? Dry Fork, VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
85snowline Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 This thing is sooo far out yet. I'm going to take a deep breathe and enjoy the dance over the next few days. 35yrs of watching winter weather in Rowan and Cabarrus Counties and I've seen forecasts for storms that literally never developed(yikes) to storms that developed by the minute('93). Keep in mind we see our biggest snowstorms from mid Feb to mid March outside the high country. Hopefully the fun is just beginning... 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 9 minutes ago, 85snowline said: This thing is sooo far out yet. I'm going to take a deep breathe and enjoy the dance over the next few days. 35yrs of watching winter weather in Rowan and Cabarrus Counties and I've seen forecasts for storms that literally never developed(yikes) to storms that developed by the minute('93). Keep in mind we see our biggest snowstorms from mid Feb to mid March outside the high country. Hopefully the fun is just beginning... I mean yes and no. Should have a relatively decent idea imo by like 12z thursday runs as to how strong and where the trajectory of the vort takes it as it gets into range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 WPC's forecast looks like a copy of the GFS ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, snowmaker13 said: WPC's forecast looks like a copy of the GFS ens RDU folks will like 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 8 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: RDU folks will like I’m in North Raleigh so I do like this. I also liked you showing some sympathy for those of us in central NC a couple pages ago. Much appreciated! You’re my new favorite poster. Excuse the banter please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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