burrel2 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 The cmc control run Clown map must be a beaut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 12z euro was more strung out and tilt wasn't as close to neutral. Just one run and lots of time for this to change but these are things we need to see improve moving forward for more qpf imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, rduwx said: 12z euro was more strung out and tilt wasn't as close to neutral. Just one run and lots of time for this to change but these are things we need to see improve moving forward for more qpf imo. Sorta like that look 6 days out. It seems like these systems always tighten up and amplify a little better once we get inside 72hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 7 minutes ago, rduwx said: 12z euro was more strung out and tilt wasn't as close to neutral. Just one run and lots of time for this to change but these are things we need to see improve moving forward for more qpf imo. Yeah it wasn't the run we were looking for without question. The thread brought bad mojo ;-) 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Sorta like that look 6 days out. It seems like these systems always tighten up and amplify a little better once we get inside 72hrs. Agreed! I'll take having this look 6 days out anytime! LOL! Of course I'm hoping for more qpf to show up in future runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Hoping we can get something substantial in south Hampton Roads. Both Mid-Atlantic storms have gone north of us these past 2 weeks. We did get a hour or so of light to moderate snow back on the 3rd that actually tried to stick, but it didn't really do much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 Even better with the higher ratios. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoAPPS Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 I won’t put much stock in these model runs until Thursday at the earliest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Some thoughts: - Really love how the medium-range fog lifted and suddenly every model has general agreement that a nice shortwave will dive down on a general corridor from the Dakotas through the Missouri Valley and eventually getting off the coast... somewhere. That's a win. - I'm pretty ambivalent on the evolution as modeled. On one hand, as Eric Webb noted in his tweets, it's an easier game precip-type-wise to wring moisture via cyclonic vorticity advection (the jargon that is usually described as "dynamics" colloquially) than it is warm advection which brings can cause issues with, as you can guess, the warm nose. On the other hand, this system as currently modeled is pretty moisture starved once it crosses the mountains and gets to us. It would lead to a pleasant story where the entire state gets in on the action, but the downside is that your ceiling is maybe 3-5 inches depending on where the best banding ends up. The way this improves is with a tighter shortwave that's a legit upper level low (GFS version) and/or the currently unmodeled solution where there's some better cyclogenesis and a coastal low is able to beef up qpf for the eastern portion of the state. - Sure does seem like this won't be our only lick in this pattern- I'm not really concerned if this system turns out to be a dud. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 6 minutes ago, GoAPPS said: I won’t put much stock in these model runs until Thursday at the earliest. I agree. Starting this thread now has just jinxed everyone. But what do I know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 I hope 6-12" dumps on Charlotte area. Good luck mates. -RSC 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 27 minutes ago, yotaman said: I agree. Starting this thread now has just jinxed everyone. But what do I know? Not much if you believe starting a thread can jinx anything. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Fingers crossed y'all clean up and get blasted! Missing all you awesome southern peeps. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 I love watching the colors fill in 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 HKY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 RDU 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 18z Icon is juiced up at 96. LP placement isn’t too far off from Canadian at 12z. Icon has LP in southern IL. Edit: so much for the similarities. At 108 Icon MUCH further to the east traversing WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rawlee Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Bring it home, Brick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: 18z Icon is juiced up at 96. LP placement isn’t too far off from Canadian at 12z. Icon has LP in southern IL 18z ICON is a dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 ICON went north this time. Let the back and forth commence! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 18z ICON is a dud. Yea as soon as I had posted it the next frames came out and I ended up editing my post. LP way too far north on that depiction for anybody to benefit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 34 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: RDU can you post CLT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 Well, this morning we had good runs, and then we just went the other way with the ICON. Have to see what tonight's GFS and Euro brings. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, sarcean said: can you post CLT? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 14 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: Can you post Dry Fork, VA or it might only show Danville. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bargainmusic Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 18z GFS with a big run. Dropping over a foot in Central NC per Kuchera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just now, BornAgain13 said: 18z GFS with a big run. Dropping over a foot in Central NC per Kuchera. Man could you imagine if it did this to us?! Hahahaha the hobby may be over for me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 mercy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 i'm gonna need a cigarette after the 18z gfs run. whew! 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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