Jan 15-16 Winter Storm

[tarheelwx]

We all laughed when the 384hr GFS from Jan 2nd came through.  Sure it was overdone, but I'd have to give it credit for being the first to pick up on this weekend's big dog potential.  

 

TW

[StantonParkHoya]

According to Allan, the offshore track (or even southern slider) is slightly more prevalent among Euro ensemble members than the inland track.

[eyewall]

[buckeyefan1]

euro op  

[buckeyefan1]

GFS  

[lilj4425]

1 hour ago, burrel2 said:

5 day 8 inch snowfall eps mean for elberton,ga through greenwood, sc. cmon now… this can’t be real. 

Let’s reel this one in. Where is Oconee? 

[Brick Tamland]

3 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Looks like more than 20 members with a solid hit for the Triangle. 

[buckeyefan1]

Euro ENS

GFS ENS  

[buckeyefan1]

Atlanta

[85snowline]

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

Current status:

Boone: We're good

Charlotte: This could be the one!

Winston-Salem: Feeling good

Greensboro: Feeling pretty good

Raleigh-Durham: Tanking Maalox and downing Tums

Fayetteville: Day drinking

Wilmington: Hitting the ABC store to re-stock

Concord- Hate anyplace N of HWY 73 .... I REALLY hate anyplace N of HWY 152

[buckeyefan1]

HKY

[buckeyefan1]

AVL

[Prismshine Productions]

GFS  

Where on Weatherbell do you go to get those. Type of maps?

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

[buckeyefan1]

RDU

[buckeyefan1]

Just now, Sandstorm94 said:

Where on Weatherbell do you go to get those. Type of maps?

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk
 

Meteograms under charts

CAE

[CoolBreeze]

How about a station in the Triad?

[buckeyefan1]

GSO

[buckeyefan1]

1 minute ago, CoolBreeze said:

How about a station in the Triad?

INT

[StoneColdWeatherAustin]

Just now, buckeyefan1 said:

INT

On the GFS control/mean graph, am I reading it correctly that it shows another storm about a week later ?

[rduwx]

1 minute ago, StoneColdWeatherAustin said:

On the GFS control/mean graph, am I reading it correctly that it shows another storm about a week later ?

Yes, 12z showed another system for Friday 1/21.

[buckeyefan1]

Just now, StoneColdWeatherAustin said:

On the GFS control/mean graph, am I reading it correctly that it shows another storm about a week later ?

Yes. You are correct. There are a couple to be watching these next few weeks   

[Prismshine Productions]

Meteograms under charts
CAE

Thank you! Sent those to my wife since she lives in the Columbia area, even down my way I'm sitting decent atm

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

[PantherJustin]

18 minutes ago, 85snowline said:

Concord- Hate anyplace N of HWY 73 .... I REALLY hate anyplace N of HWY 152

This a true statement I grew up by Afton Village. Everyone even up by Rowan County/Iredell County line would smash. Luckily I’m over in Mooresville Now. South Concord like Downtown- Never gonna fare well in a CAD setup 

[olafminesaw]

RAH:

 

The overwhelming majority of the forecast interest is obviously on
the Saturday night - Monday time period, and for good reason.
Previous model solutions were somewhat unclear with the
GFS/GEFS/ECENS all indicating the potential for wintry precipitation
for our area, while the deterministic ECMWF was the outlier in
showing a system to our south with little in the way of impactful
weather across NC. Today`s ensemble data and 12Z deterministic
guidance has come into better agreement, albeit with a curve ball in
the form of a pronounced warm nose across Coastal Plain and central
Piedmont. While all the models indicate the potential for precip
Saturday night through Sunday night as an initial low dives through
the Midwest into the Deep South, the guidance is also showing a
secondary coastal low developing Sunday morning (Miller-B style)
with a pronounced warm nose from 925-850mb extending well inland
Sunday afternoon. For being vastly different 12 hours ago, both the
EC and GFS deterministic show 40-50kt easterly 925-850mb winds with
temperatures forecast to rise to around +1C in the western Piedmont
and up to around +6C across the Coastal Plain. Cold air would
eventually wrap back around the system as it exits to the northeast
early Monday morning, perhaps chasing the moisture out of the area
in the process.

At this stage of game, despite an apparent convergence of solutions
with today`s 12Z deterministic guidance and suggestions of support
from their ensembles, there is still a lot of uncertainty that needs
to be sorted out. Precip chances continue to increase during this
period, but the potential for a substantial warm nose could result
in some areas that see snow, ice, rain, or a mix of all the above
with this event. Much will ultimately depend on how closely the low
stays to the coast and the strength/position of the surface ridge to
our north. We`ll continue with the mention of rain/snow for Sunday
into Monday but still too early to talk amounts or icing potential
with any degree of certainty.

[buckeyefan1]

GSP 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 240 pm EST Tuesday: Looking ahead to the weekend, all
attention turns toward the possibility of a winter storm that would
affect the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia beginning perhaps
as early as Saturday afternoon and possibly continuing through the
better part of Sunday...emphasis on the word "possible". It is worth
noting that the 12Z ECMWF has come around to the GFS idea that a
strong short wave dropping southeastward along the High Plains would
ultimately cut off an upper low over the central/srn Plains Friday
night into Saturday. Also worth noting is the relative run-to-run
consistency seen in the operational GFS with this feature. The
setup begins Friday night into Saturday as the developing split in
the flow helps to slow the progress of a large continental sfc high
moving from Ontario, down across the lower lakes, to Upstate NY/New
England Saturday/Saturday night. This would provide the necessary
source for cold air prior to the arrival of the precip associated
with the upper low, which operational guidance suggests will come
across the lower MS Valley region Saturday night. The operational
models show partial thickness values low enough to support at least
a mix with wintry precip as we acquire isentropic lift on Saturday
that could force the development of said precip by the afternoon. If
this develops as it could, essentially as an activating warm front,
it would help to lock in the cooler sfc temps before the main
mid/upper forcing arrives from the west. The operational models all
show a closed upper low rolling east on Sunday, moving overhead or
to the south of the fcst area, then offshore/northeast on Sunday
night. Be that as it may, this is not the only possible solution,
and some of the ensemble members show very different outcomes
to the upper/sfc pattern. Looking at the GEFS...there has been
a definite trend toward more wintry precip across more of the
fcst area, with the majority of ensemble members at 12Z showing
wintry precip affecting nearly the entire fcst area Saturday
night/Sunday. The plume diagrams, and their supposed total snow
accumulations, appear most tantalizing. However, there are as many
ensemble members showing minimal wintry precip as there are showing
a great deal, and some still showing none at all. Our forecast will
reflect developing confidence in the wintry scenario but limits
the precip probs to the chance range for the time being. The trend
is toward more of a snow possibility along/north of I-85 and more
mixing/changing to sleet/freezing rain south of I-85, but this is
only one scenario. The track of the low will determine how strong
of a warm nose might develop from the south, which would greatly
affect the precip-type distribution. The QPF blend right now is
especially modest, and the conservative approach is preferable
for a system that is still out on Day 4/5. In spite of the trend,
readers are cautioned to manage their expectations...at least for
the time being. Stay tuned.

If this system develops as it could, we would be in for some NW
flow snow on the TN border Sunday night into Monday, otherwise
the remainder of the period would be quiet with a large sfc high
settling across the region Monday into Tuesday.

[NorthHillsWx]

Trend seems up be a more amped low and with that more precip type issues. Such is life in the south. I really like everywhere along the 85 corridor and would feel very comfortable at this point. It digs far enough south to put even Atlanta in a fantastic spot. Issue is definitely when it begins to make the northward push and how Far East it gets before then. Seeing an extremely amped sub 995 low crossing SE NC is not going to be good for Raleigh proper to stay all snow. Those are minute details with huge implications at this point. A major storm seems likely in the south and we have days of model runs to sort those details out. The trend certainly seems though that there is more likely to be a piedmont-east screw zone than we were thinking at this time yesterday 

[Buddy1987]

Im not going to even try to dissect the 18z nam lol. A lot going on and well.. its the nam

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

3 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

GSP 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 240 pm EST Tuesday: Looking ahead to the weekend, all
attention turns toward the possibility of a winter storm that would
affect the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia beginning perhaps
as early as Saturday afternoon and possibly continuing through the
better part of Sunday...emphasis on the word "possible". It is worth
noting that the 12Z ECMWF has come around to the GFS idea that a
strong short wave dropping southeastward along the High Plains would
ultimately cut off an upper low over the central/srn Plains Friday
night into Saturday. Also worth noting is the relative run-to-run
consistency seen in the operational GFS with this feature. The
setup begins Friday night into Saturday as the developing split in
the flow helps to slow the progress of a large continental sfc high
moving from Ontario, down across the lower lakes, to Upstate NY/New
England Saturday/Saturday night. This would provide the necessary
source for cold air prior to the arrival of the precip associated
with the upper low, which operational guidance suggests will come
across the lower MS Valley region Saturday night. The operational
models show partial thickness values low enough to support at least
a mix with wintry precip as we acquire isentropic lift on Saturday
that could force the development of said precip by the afternoon. If
this develops as it could, essentially as an activating warm front,
it would help to lock in the cooler sfc temps before the main
mid/upper forcing arrives from the west. The operational models all
show a closed upper low rolling east on Sunday, moving overhead or
to the south of the fcst area, then offshore/northeast on Sunday
night. Be that as it may, this is not the only possible solution,
and some of the ensemble members show very different outcomes
to the upper/sfc pattern. Looking at the GEFS...there has been
a definite trend toward more wintry precip across more of the
fcst area, with the majority of ensemble members at 12Z showing
wintry precip affecting nearly the entire fcst area Saturday
night/Sunday. The plume diagrams, and their supposed total snow
accumulations, appear most tantalizing. However, there are as many
ensemble members showing minimal wintry precip as there are showing
a great deal, and some still showing none at all. Our forecast will
reflect developing confidence in the wintry scenario but limits
the precip probs to the chance range for the time being. The trend
is toward more of a snow possibility along/north of I-85 and more
mixing/changing to sleet/freezing rain south of I-85, but this is
only one scenario. The track of the low will determine how strong
of a warm nose might develop from the south, which would greatly
affect the precip-type distribution. The QPF blend right now is
especially modest, and the conservative approach is preferable
for a system that is still out on Day 4/5. In spite of the trend,
readers are cautioned to manage their expectations...at least for
the time being. Stay tuned.

If this system develops as it could, we would be in for some NW
flow snow on the TN border Sunday night into Monday, otherwise
the remainder of the period would be quiet with a large sfc high
settling across the region Monday into Tuesday.

I wish I could have a facepalm reaction to the bold statement. We can’t find a model now that doesn’t show warning criteria snow so we are picking out individual ensemble members. Wut?!

[Brick Tamland]

7 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

RAH:

 

The overwhelming majority of the forecast interest is obviously on
the Saturday night - Monday time period, and for good reason.
Previous model solutions were somewhat unclear with the
GFS/GEFS/ECENS all indicating the potential for wintry precipitation
for our area, while the deterministic ECMWF was the outlier in
showing a system to our south with little in the way of impactful
weather across NC. Today`s ensemble data and 12Z deterministic
guidance has come into better agreement, albeit with a curve ball in
the form of a pronounced warm nose across Coastal Plain and central
Piedmont. While all the models indicate the potential for precip
Saturday night through Sunday night as an initial low dives through
the Midwest into the Deep South, the guidance is also showing a
secondary coastal low developing Sunday morning (Miller-B style)
with a pronounced warm nose from 925-850mb extending well inland
Sunday afternoon. For being vastly different 12 hours ago, both the
EC and GFS deterministic show 40-50kt easterly 925-850mb winds with
temperatures forecast to rise to around +1C in the western Piedmont
and up to around +6C across the Coastal Plain. Cold air would
eventually wrap back around the system as it exits to the northeast
early Monday morning, perhaps chasing the moisture out of the area
in the process.

At this stage of game, despite an apparent convergence of solutions
with today`s 12Z deterministic guidance and suggestions of support
from their ensembles, there is still a lot of uncertainty that needs
to be sorted out. Precip chances continue to increase during this
period, but the potential for a substantial warm nose could result
in some areas that see snow, ice, rain, or a mix of all the above
with this event. Much will ultimately depend on how closely the low
stays to the coast and the strength/position of the surface ridge to
our north. We`ll continue with the mention of rain/snow for Sunday
into Monday but still too early to talk amounts or icing potential
with any degree of certainty.

Might not know until we actually see where the low goes while it's happening. 

[buckeyefan1]

NAM/EURO/GFS