CaryWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, burgertime said: Hot off the presses enscrambles keeping me out of the gfs op abyss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 12z GEFS panels. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, jrips27 said: 12z GEFS panels. That looks pretty damn good. All eyes on the Euro now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, burgertime said: CMC looks really interesting to me. It also looks like it's doing a better job of seeing how that LP is sucking in the cold air to the north. Only out to 99 on my maps but has potential for sure. at 114 much more of a neutral to negative tilt with the energy over MS compared to GFS at same time frame. Damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Should be a good run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, jrips27 said: 12z GEFS panels. Looks like half of those have big hits for NC. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: at 114 much more of a neutral to negative tilt with the energy over MS compared to GFS at same time frame. Damn I'm still stuck at 99. For some reason SV maps always have these big delays on the CMC and UK Met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, franklin NCwx said: Should be a good run Thats extremely close to March 2009. Except we have colder air to work with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, burgertime said: I'm still stuck at 99. For some reason SV maps always have these big delays on the CMC and UK Met. moot point by 126 tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 GEFS still looking good for most btw....I'm sad because I have no more reactions to give 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 CMC vs GFS at 126 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, burgertime said: Thats extremely close to March 2009. Except we have colder air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 UKMET if i'm looking at the right thing looks way south of CMC/GFS and much better for the eastern parts. (But i may not be looking at things right... stand by) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 Now we're at the point where folks start worrying about the track and the 850s and it being too amped and warm for snow versus ice and rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 If you compare the GFS & Euro the Eastern US is pretty similar, high pressure placement almost identical and only 4 MB difference. However the GFS is showing major difference to the west, the high over ID is considerably weaker on the GFS and it's bringing a low pressure into the Pac NW about 12 hours sooner. Just seems to be one of those solutions that until we get to sampling will produce some wild differences as there's so many pieces of energy throwing the models off. It's my opinion that the GFS is clearly not handling this well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 UK is south but a lot of snow in ga and sc. Although the differences are certainly there, considering this is still 4 to 5 days out, I feel like there is remarkable agreement. Sure wouldn't get hung up on any one run or model though. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 8 minutes ago, Lookout said: UK is south but a lot of snow in ga and sc. Although the differences are certainly there, considering this is still 4 to 5 days out, I feel like there is remarkable agreement. Sure wouldn't get hung up on any one run or model though Yeah it’s south but definitely north of its 0Z run. Probably playing into its suppression bias. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Yeah it’s south but definitely north of its 0Z run. Probably playing into its suppression bias. Taking a compromise so far results in a big and widespread winter storm for a lot of folks. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 It all comes down to how much energy gets wrapped into the ULL. Less is best for GA/SC/E NC. Stronger ULL will put out more precip but will be more ice/sleet with a stout HP overhead holding in the CAD at the surface. Still way too early to say. Ensemble means looks like a good average. Looks like most of the models are picking up on it and looking likely at least some of us are going to get plastered. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Can already foresee the homerism regionally. Before the Euro runs, can we please be mindful that just because you like the run, doesn’t mean everyone on the forum will (ie. West vs eastern NC). Thanks. 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, Lookout said: UK is south but a lot of snow in ga and sc. Although the differences are certainly there, considering this is still 4 to 5 days out, I feel like there is remarkable agreement. Sure wouldn't get hung up on any one run or model though. Yeah completely agree on the agreement part. Knock on wood but feels like the big picture synoptic features are settled. More ticks and slides and slips N/S/E/W are coming but it's there. And I don't think we're getting too far over our skis saying that this is typically when the big dogs come into focus. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 14 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Can already foresee the homerism regionally. Before the Euro runs, can we please be mindful that just because you like the run, doesn’t mean everyone on the forum will (ie. West vs eastern NC). Thanks. Amen. I’ve learned that’s what is good for the Triad often is not good for much of the board, and Vice versa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 is the Canadian stuck? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 National Guard needs to be on standby if the Euro is a dud/way too amped. Haven't been this excited/queasy before a Euro run in years. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 This is make or break for the winter so hopefully everyone can get a little something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: National Guard needs to be on standby if the Euro is a dud/way too amped. Haven't been this excited/queasy before a Euro run in years. I've been like that for a few weeks now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: National Guard needs to be on standby if the Euro is a dud/way too amped. Haven't been this excited/queasy before a Euro run in years. Preparation for an Airstrike if it doesn't show anything close to the GFS? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 19 minutes ago, Beach Snow said: is the Canadian stuck? Been stuck at 105 for awhile now for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: National Guard needs to be on standby if the Euro is a dud/way too amped. Haven't been this excited/queasy before a Euro run in years. We'll get the crisis hotline setup... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Imo, even if this storm trends more amped it looks like CAD regions are a near lock for frozen precip. Would just mean more sleet and freezing rain and less snow. I guess my point is the goal posts are pretty wide for a significant winter storm right now with respect to model shifts(for CAD regions) 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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