BooneWX Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Carbon copy of Dec 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 4:11 PM, wncsnow said: BOOM for WNC Expand Good lord! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 For the Triangle eastward you are saying "well that was fun while it lasted". This is not a good run at all for us. It would be snow to mix to rain followed by frozen puddles after. Even the Triad sees a sleet fest in this scenario. This would be an I-77 and west scenario in reality. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 This is a stout ULL. Sort of reminds me of March 2009(???). From March 2009 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 Looks good for here, too. Still thinking it might be too amped and a little too warm. But being right on that snow/ice/rain line can be a good thing if you're on the snow side of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Lousy run for Atlanta but I have a place to stay in the GA mountains so a road trip may be in order. Let's see what the Euro does. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 4:15 PM, ILMRoss said: I don't think this particular rendition of the GFS is handling the LP placement that well. There's a 1035HP high over the NY fingerlakes. Textbook CAD. I would not expect the low to take the inland track as depicted. The 500mb ULL bump N is a separate issue that bears watching but i'm not completely concerned about it yet. Expand Agree and yes, there will be a lot more model runs to go before it is all sorted out, but I'm just as excited today about the possibilities as I was a month ago 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Warm nose coming north. Congrats mountain folks. Take pictures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Wasn't there some talk earlier about how the gfs has a tendency to try and slam LPs into CAD a little too aggressively in it's modeling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 4:27 PM, CaryWx said: Wasn't there some talk earlier about how the gfs has a tendency to try and slam LPs into CAD a little too aggressively in it's modeling?Every winter and hurricane it loves to plowSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 4:27 PM, CaryWx said: Wasn't there some talk earlier about how the gfs has a tendency to try and slam LPs into CAD a little too aggressively in it's modeling? Expand known bias for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 4:23 PM, Cheeznado said: Lousy run for Atlanta but I have a place to stay in the GA mountains so a road trip may be in order. Let's see what the Euro does. Expand Yep, I think ill be heading north if this verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Slower and digs further west which will amp it up too much and allow the axis to go negative further west and draw up a ton of WAA east of the ULL. Needs to back off of that some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 4:27 PM, CaryWx said: Wasn't there some talk earlier about how the gfs has a tendency to try and slam LPs into CAD a little too aggressively in it's modeling? Expand Yea it's certainly done that in the past. It seemed a little strange to me how that low tracked but I guess it's also plausible due to it being slower. Euro should tell the tale today. If it keeps things suppressed then folks in RDU can breath a sigh of relief. Also we're still 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 CMC is quicker with the energy out to 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Canadian east of the GFS so far at 12z hr 78. Lets see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 4:32 PM, burgertime said: CMC is quicker with the energy out to 78. Expand I peaked at the old black and whites and it appears to be a WNC special also. LP tracks slightly inland like the 12z gfs. Hopefully better maps will give more detail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 4:30 PM, Wow said: Slower and digs further west which will amp it up too much and allow the axis to go negative further west and draw up a ton of WAA east of the ULL. Needs to back off of that some. Expand I for the life of me still can't understand when and where the perfect negative tilt is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 4:34 PM, rduwx said: I peaked at the old black and whites and it appears to be a WNC special also. LP tracks slightly inland like the 12z gfs. Hopefully better maps will give more detail. Expand Yea I'm only out to 87 but it looks like it's probably gonna track that direction. It's closed off before the GFS though which could make things interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 CMC has a 1036 high anchored in the right spot if it can stick. Like @ILMRoss said if thats around that should have a bigger impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Not too sound too wish-casty but I always feel like there's a couple of "ah! omg! the GFS amps things up and turns things north up to coast!" hysteria runs before it falls back to earth. Not dismissing concerns but I'm not incredibly concerned yet. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 4:35 PM, burgertime said: Yea I'm only out to 87 but it looks like it's probably gonna track that direction. It's closed off before the GFS though which could make things interesting. Expand Energy over New England is def displaced to the east compared to GFS as well. This could def get interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Gfs showing 15 to 25 knot surface winds in north ga and upstate at height of storm with 40 knots just off the surface. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 4:37 PM, ILMRoss said: Not too sound too wish-casty but I always feel like there's a couple of "ah! omg! the GFS amps things up and turns things north up to coast!" hysteria runs before it falls back to earth. Not dismissing concerns but I'm not incredibly concerned yet. Expand ahaha we've been burned by it. But you made a very good point. If we lock in that HP then the NW trend probably won't be a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 GEFS looks Great. Less amped than the GFS, but a solid hit for all NC 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 12z GEFS mean is over 6 inches for Western NC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 4:39 PM, olafminesaw said: GEFS looks Great. Less amped than the GFS, but a solid hit for all NC Expand Ensemble mean is usually like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 4:39 PM, olafminesaw said: GEFS looks Great. Less amped than the GFS, but a solid hit for all NC Expand Hot off the presses 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 CMC looks really interesting to me. It also looks like it's doing a better job of seeing how that LP is sucking in the cold air to the north. Only out to 99 on my maps but has potential for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 4:39 PM, burgertime said: ahaha we've been burned by it. But you made a very good point. If we lock in that HP then the NW trend probably won't be a concern. Expand Exactly. Then it's all up to the energy moving south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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