eyewall Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 1:29 PM, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Still worried about the warm nose. Expand Yeah we know it almost always overperforms but we shall see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 1:32 PM, eyewall said: Yeah we know it almost always overperforms but we shall see. Expand Too much of an amped trend for me and the triangle area. Been hurt too many times but a warm nose and hours of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Jan 25th, 2000 closest thing I could find to this potential one. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2000_North_American_blizzard 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Gotta iron out the vort track, strength etc. before it's even worth thinking about precip type issues. Always an issue when it comes to the big ones, which is why we don't mind an EPS-like solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Decent upward tick...[Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 1:36 PM, olafminesaw said: Gotta iron out the vort track, strength etc. before it's even worth thinking about precip type issues. Always an issue when it comes to the big ones, which is why we don't mind an EPS-like solution Expand Well the 6Z EPS is moving toward the GFS in a hurry. The 6Z Euro control was almost carbon copy GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 4:16 AM, Buddy1987 said: Good lord! 983 bomb over Wilmington. I did NOT expect this tonight. Soundings look impressive for a whole bunch of us Expand Lol I was a bit consumed with my bulldogs last night As for this weekend, I'm trying to keep my expectations in check. Being in the bullseye this far out makes me nervous. Given the trends thats hard but realistically the run to run consistency of the models haven't been great..which of course isn't surprising this far out. The ga and Carolina crew sure deserve this though after watching virtually everywhere else have their day the last few years. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 1:35 PM, Buddy1987 said: Jan 25th, 2000 closest thing I could find to this potential one. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2000_North_American_blizzard Expand I didn't want to be the first to mention it, but it has crossed my mind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 1:42 PM, Lookout said: Lol I was a bit consumed with my bulldogs last night As for this weekend, I'm trying to keep my expectations in check. Being in the bullseye this far out makes me nervous. Given the trends thats hard but realistically the run to run consistency of the models haven't been great..which of course isn't surprising this far out. The ga and Carolina crew sure deserve this though after watching virtually everywhere else have their day the last few years. Expand Anybody but Alabama! I think as of right now NE GA looks to be in for a shellacking. Time will tell my friend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Y’all….. the 6z eps snowfall mean is 4 inches in my backyard. I don’t think I’ve ever seen an eps mean that high here, at any lead time before an event, period.Huge, huge signal! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 1:50 PM, burrel2 said: Y’all….. the 6z eps snowfall mean is 4 inches in my backyard. I don’t think I’ve ever seen an eps mean that high here, at any lead time before an event, period.Huge, huge signal! Expand I was thinking the same earlier 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Interestingly enough, the winter of 1999-2000 was one of my analog winters for my winter forecast, and I specifically referenced the old Carolina Crusher as a way of pulling out a big event even though a lot of the winter might be 'unfavorable.' Interesting. 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 1:56 PM, msuwx said: Interestingly enough, the winter of 1999-2000 was one of my analog winters for my winter forecast, and I specifically referenced the old Carolina Crusher as a way of pulling out a big event even though a lot of the winter might be 'unfavorable.' Interesting. Expand I'll take another January 2000 or January 2002 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Eric Webb is putting good stuff out too. March 1980 is another good one. https://www.weather.gov/mhx/Mar011980EventReview Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 1:05 PM, burgertime said: 6z EPS again goes towards the GFS. Not the monster GFS is but a nice low track with an I-85 special. RDU east across much of the state is 4+. Not so far east with that 4+ as the 00z. Sorry @ILMRoss Expand Rockingham in the 6 inch contour is a similarly insane model output for an ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 2:11 PM, Buddy1987 said: Eric Webb is putting good stuff out too. March 1980 is another good one. https://www.weather.gov/mhx/Mar011980EventReview Expand I see his point but I personally think it was a mistake to call out the two most ubiquitously heavy snowfalls for the Carolinas in the last 50 years as analogs. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 A March 1980 like event would be OK with most NC folks, I would think! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 I think @burgertimementioned Christmas 2010 last night and just looking through the GSP report, my untrained eyes definitely see some similarities to the GFS solution. Low track and pressure drop nearly identical, just slightly further north as currently modeled. GFS CAD is better than 2010 plus peak climo so it's colder, at least for me in N GA. https://www.weather.gov/media/gsp/localdat/cases/2010/Event_Review_Christmas_2010_Snow.pdf 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 2:19 PM, ILMRoss said: I see his point but I personally think it was a mistake to call out the two most ubiquitously heavy snowfalls for the Carolinas in the last 50 years as analogs. Expand I get that from a fear standpoint to the public but I mean synoptically and upstairs very similar. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 FWIW the nam has now closed off the energy coming down into the plains on this run, taking a step towards the gfs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Longgggg range Nam at 72 actually has a more consolidated vort out west just entering eastern most Montana, comparatively to 6z GFS. Placement wise they are relatively very close to one another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 2:43 PM, buckeyefan1 said: FWIW the nam has now closed off the energy coming down into the plains on this run, taking a step towards the gfs. Expand Dang it sniped by buckeye haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 2:43 PM, buckeyefan1 said: FWIW the nam has now closed off the energy coming down into the plains on this run, taking a step towards the gfs. Expand Also 4mb stronger with that HP over Quebec at 1045. That’s a stout bad boy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 When past analogs are used to compare this storm, were those analogs also clipper type systems ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 2:47 PM, StoneColdWeatherAustin said: When past analogs are used to compare this storm, were those analogs also clipper type systems ? Expand I don't think this is a clipper anymore. More Miller A like. Someone correct me if I am wrong. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 2:49 PM, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: I don't think this is a clipper anymore. More Miller A like. Someone correct me if I am wrong. Expand From what I have been able to gather is that it is a clipper type system in the fact that it is coming from the northwest instead of the pacific, however could turn into a Miller A as it appears to dive south enough to interact with the Gulf of Mexico. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 2:49 PM, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: I don't think this is a clipper anymore. More Miller A like. Someone correct me if I am wrong. Expand It’s like hybrid A/B at least on the depiction of the GFS, as it wants to transfer off SC coast which would then void the Miller A talk. Unique storm for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 2:49 PM, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: I don't think this is a clipper anymore. More Miller A like. Someone correct me if I am wrong. Expand GFS sure seems like it wants to go that route. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 2:47 PM, StoneColdWeatherAustin said: When past analogs are used to compare this storm, were those analogs also clipper type systems ? Expand Jan 2000 had a phasing of the northern/southern streams, so a n/s clipper was involved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Southern Pines, NC the morning of 1/25/2000 (I took this back then): 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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