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Jan 15-16 Winter Storm


Brick Tamland
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Color me shocked that it’ll be in gatlinburg from that position in 12 hrs.
Correct me if I am wrong, but I thought the latest models were not showing the low making it to the gulf, but instead around northern LA/MS and then jetting East to SC and then North. Wouldn't the fact that it made it to the gulf cause some pretty different scenarios for a lot of locations?

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Correct me if I am wrong, but I thought the latest models were not showing the low making it to the gulf, but instead around northern LA/MS and then jetting East to SC and then North. Wouldn't the fact that it made it to the gulf cause some pretty different scenarios for a lot of locations?

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Big time

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5 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Big time

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These aren't freight trains, these systems can literally stop and turn on a dime once they become influenced by a different feature.  If you have a rapidly weakening blocking high to the north and other features in place that would draw the system due north, it wouldn't take long at all for this system to stall and begin moving quickly north. (I'm fairly certain I'm preaching to the choir here, but the statement was made) It can absolutely be in Gatlinburg in 12 hours.

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5 minutes ago, StoneColdWeatherAustin said:

Correct me if I am wrong, but I thought the latest models were not showing the low making it to the gulf, but instead around northern LA/MS and then jetting East to SC and then North. Wouldn't the fact that it made it to the gulf cause some pretty different scenarios for a lot of locations?

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18z NAM had low in Gulf. 

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5 minutes ago, StoneColdWeatherAustin said:

Correct me if I am wrong, but I thought the latest models were not showing the low making it to the gulf, but instead around northern LA/MS and then jetting East to SC and then North. Wouldn't the fact that it made it to the gulf cause some pretty different scenarios for a lot of locations?

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My eyes may be deceiving me, but it seems like the low is roughly 50-75 miles south of where many projected it to be. The bigger and more important question now is how far east it can slide before starting the climb north. 

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1 minute ago, kvegas-wx said:

These aren't freight trains, these systems can literally stop and turn on a dime once they become influenced by a different feature.  If you have a rapidly weakening blocking high to the north and other features in place that would draw the system due north, it wouldn't take long at all for this system to stall and begin moving quickly north. (I'm fairly certain I'm preaching to the choir here, but the statement was made) It can absolutely be in Gatlinburg in 12 hours.

I totally understand that, I think my statement may have been misunderstood a bit. I was simply mocking the absurdity of it - not suggesting it can’t happen. There’s just not a lot of precedent for this storm track. 

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2 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

These aren't freight trains, these systems can literally stop and turn on a dime once they become influenced by a different feature.  If you have a rapidly weakening blocking high to the north and other features in place that would draw the system due north, it wouldn't take long at all for this system to stall and begin moving quickly north. (I'm fairly certain I'm preaching to the choir here, but the statement was made) It can absolutely be in Gatlinburg in 12 hours.

Yeah, we've seen this play out on the models. A shift to the south initially has sometimes resulted in a more inland track. Just depends on how our pesky vortex to the North behaves

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1 hour ago, MillerA said:

I am now down to 1 to 2 inches, lol. 

Newton, nc

 

 

I am in Newton too, I think that's a low call. That initial push should drop several inches according to the hrr, I would be shocked if we changed that quick. That's some heavy moisture coming and we could easily pick up that amount in 1-2 hours. Hoping for a few more inches than forecasted above^

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Couple things to note on the short range models for CLT proper.

1) The HRRR shows a solid 2-3 hour initial burst of snow. I’m guessing that’s overdone and much will fall as sleet, but something to note. 
2) Pretty much all the meso models show an eventual changeover to plain rain. Better than freezing rain. 
3) The 3K Nam shows a fun little burst of snow (possibly a deform band?) rolling through fairly late tomorrow evening for an hour or two. Also continues through the state and affects the triangle. 

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Anybody else think this could be like, super bad in terms of power loss? Could go down in history as one of the worst ice storms, imo. We got a wide area with mid-upper 20 temps and freezing rain with sustained 15-25 mph winds gusting to 45-50mph. It's going to be bad, imo.

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1 minute ago, burrel2 said:

Anybody else think this could be like, super bad in terms of power loss? Could go down in history as one of the worst ice storms, imo. We got a wide area with mid-upper 20 temps and freezing rain with sustained 15-25 mph winds gusting to 45-50mph. It's going to be bad, imo.

Burrel, given the trends tonight on the short range models, do you think the I-85 corridor and north will avoid a lot of the fz rain, giving the Anderson/Greenwood area  the greatest threat of ice?  

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4 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

I am becoming increasingly nervous for a devastating ice storm from Greensboro to Durham to Roxboro. It looks like nearly an inch of freezing rain QPF falls .

Latest 3k NAM took ice accums down a little in the Triangle Bull

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14 minutes ago, Snow dog said:

Burrel, given the trends tonight on the short range models, do you think the I-85 corridor and north will avoid a lot of the fz rain, giving the Anderson/Greenwood area  the greatest threat of ice?  

Yea, i'm not expecting anything more than a very light glaze from freezing drizzle in between heavier sleet showers mid-day tomorrow.  95% of our precip will be snow or sleet.

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