Prismshine Productions Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Shame it doesn’t just continue and exit off Jekyll Island GA then turn up lolIkr? That is a major hook it is going to pullSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Color me shocked that it’ll be in gatlinburg from that position in 12 hrs.Correct me if I am wrong, but I thought the latest models were not showing the low making it to the gulf, but instead around northern LA/MS and then jetting East to SC and then North. Wouldn't the fact that it made it to the gulf cause some pretty different scenarios for a lot of locations?Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Correct me if I am wrong, but I thought the latest models were not showing the low making it to the gulf, but instead around northern LA/MS and then jetting East to SC and then North. Wouldn't the fact that it made it to the gulf cause some pretty different scenarios for a lot of locations?Sent from my SM-N960U1 using TapatalkBig timeSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: Big time Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk These aren't freight trains, these systems can literally stop and turn on a dime once they become influenced by a different feature. If you have a rapidly weakening blocking high to the north and other features in place that would draw the system due north, it wouldn't take long at all for this system to stall and begin moving quickly north. (I'm fairly certain I'm preaching to the choir here, but the statement was made) It can absolutely be in Gatlinburg in 12 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Wow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, StoneColdWeatherAustin said: Correct me if I am wrong, but I thought the latest models were not showing the low making it to the gulf, but instead around northern LA/MS and then jetting East to SC and then North. Wouldn't the fact that it made it to the gulf cause some pretty different scenarios for a lot of locations? Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk 18z NAM had low in Gulf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, StoneColdWeatherAustin said: Correct me if I am wrong, but I thought the latest models were not showing the low making it to the gulf, but instead around northern LA/MS and then jetting East to SC and then North. Wouldn't the fact that it made it to the gulf cause some pretty different scenarios for a lot of locations? Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk My eyes may be deceiving me, but it seems like the low is roughly 50-75 miles south of where many projected it to be. The bigger and more important question now is how far east it can slide before starting the climb north. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, kvegas-wx said: These aren't freight trains, these systems can literally stop and turn on a dime once they become influenced by a different feature. If you have a rapidly weakening blocking high to the north and other features in place that would draw the system due north, it wouldn't take long at all for this system to stall and begin moving quickly north. (I'm fairly certain I'm preaching to the choir here, but the statement was made) It can absolutely be in Gatlinburg in 12 hours. I totally understand that, I think my statement may have been misunderstood a bit. I was simply mocking the absurdity of it - not suggesting it can’t happen. There’s just not a lot of precedent for this storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 I am now down to 1 to 2 inches, lol. Newton, nc 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, BooneWX said: I totally understand that, I think my statement may have been misunderstood a bit. I was simply mocking the absurdity of it - not suggesting it can’t happen. There’s just not a lot of precedent for this storm track. 10-4. Totally agree. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: These aren't freight trains, these systems can literally stop and turn on a dime once they become influenced by a different feature. If you have a rapidly weakening blocking high to the north and other features in place that would draw the system due north, it wouldn't take long at all for this system to stall and begin moving quickly north. (I'm fairly certain I'm preaching to the choir here, but the statement was made) It can absolutely be in Gatlinburg in 12 hours. Yeah, we've seen this play out on the models. A shift to the south initially has sometimes resulted in a more inland track. Just depends on how our pesky vortex to the North behaves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 One thing is for sure- The radar looks juiced 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Final forecast maps attached. I cut down on the snow/sleet totals in the west due to the warm nose. The cut off line in western NC between a inches of snow/sleet and an inch of snow/sleet will be less than a few miles, and it is very very difficult to pin down. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 One thing is for sure- The radar looks juiced Wow, you're not kidding. That's a LOT of moisture. Looks like a tropical storm.Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mwp1023 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just curious but at what altitude is the warm nose? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, mwp1023 said: Just curious but at what altitude is the warm nose? Depends on when and where you’re at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 28 minutes ago, LiQuiDBuD said: Wow, you're not kidding. That's a LOT of moisture. Looks like a tropical storm. Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk Getting ready to Bring the pain In CLT Metro …. Hope y’all got a Generator Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 47 minutes ago, MillerA said: I am now down to 1 to 2 inches, lol. Newton, nc Makes you wonder why they still calling it a winter storm warning. Shouldn’t it be changed to an ice storm warning? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Is it moving slower than expected? Curious what y'all think.Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 hour ago, MillerA said: I am now down to 1 to 2 inches, lol. Newton, nc I am in Newton too, I think that's a low call. That initial push should drop several inches according to the hrr, I would be shocked if we changed that quick. That's some heavy moisture coming and we could easily pick up that amount in 1-2 hours. Hoping for a few more inches than forecasted above^ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 36 minutes ago, LiQuiDBuD said: Is it moving slower than expected? Curious what y'all think. Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk Maybe an hour or two. Plenty of moisture to roll through overnight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Couple things to note on the short range models for CLT proper. 1) The HRRR shows a solid 2-3 hour initial burst of snow. I’m guessing that’s overdone and much will fall as sleet, but something to note. 2) Pretty much all the meso models show an eventual changeover to plain rain. Better than freezing rain. 3) The 3K Nam shows a fun little burst of snow (possibly a deform band?) rolling through fairly late tomorrow evening for an hour or two. Also continues through the state and affects the triangle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Anybody else think this could be like, super bad in terms of power loss? Could go down in history as one of the worst ice storms, imo. We got a wide area with mid-upper 20 temps and freezing rain with sustained 15-25 mph winds gusting to 45-50mph. It's going to be bad, imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: Anybody else think this could be like, super bad in terms of power loss? Could go down in history as one of the worst ice storms, imo. We got a wide area with mid-upper 20 temps and freezing rain with sustained 15-25 mph winds gusting to 45-50mph. It's going to be bad, imo. Burrel, given the trends tonight on the short range models, do you think the I-85 corridor and north will avoid a lot of the fz rain, giving the Anderson/Greenwood area the greatest threat of ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 FWIW current 850 temps are colder than NAM showed for 03z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 I am becoming increasingly nervous for a devastating ice storm from Greensboro to Durham to Roxboro. It looks like nearly an inch of freezing rain QPF falls . 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: I am becoming increasingly nervous for a devastating ice storm from Greensboro to Durham to Roxboro. It looks like nearly an inch of freezing rain QPF falls . Latest 3k NAM took ice accums down a little in the Triangle Bull 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 HRRR also bringing a little more snow east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 14 minutes ago, Snow dog said: Burrel, given the trends tonight on the short range models, do you think the I-85 corridor and north will avoid a lot of the fz rain, giving the Anderson/Greenwood area the greatest threat of ice? Yea, i'm not expecting anything more than a very light glaze from freezing drizzle in between heavier sleet showers mid-day tomorrow. 95% of our precip will be snow or sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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