Tony Sisk Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Tigerchick224 said: That’s literally right up the 85 corridor, per usual. . Genius that they built that interstate there. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 50 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: I think NE GA above 2000-2500 feet is going to do very well. Both the 12Z RGEM and NAM now show a more solidified and organized area of snow behind the 500 low over ERN AL and NRN GA...it never made sense to me how disorganized and showery it was looking yesterday but models even in 2022 tend to struggle with precip intensity and coverage behind closed 500 lows in the SRN US because typically the surface feature is not yet well developed or is weak. They'll never underestimate those parameters in New England or the Great Lakes because often times by then the surface low is deep and organized and the system is more mature. I think places like Rome on east could see several inches. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, CaryWx said: NWS calling for lots more power outages in NC. Went from 'elevated' to 'widespread' Where can I find that map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibby Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 10 minutes ago, wxduncan said: Where can I find that map? NWS RAH latest briefing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 UK with its best run of the storm for mountain and foothills 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, wncsnow said: UK with its best run of the storm for mountain and foothills Huh. Well that’s downright decent. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, BullCityWx said: Huh. Well that’s downright decent. I think it counts sleet too but its still way better than last nights run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Storm summed up in one sounding. If this ain't sleet, it sure is close 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Here’s the Panovich mid-morning blog. Really focuses on the Charlotte metro area. Moral of the story: ICE. Brad Panovich (@wxbrad) Tweeted: 11am Winter Storm VLOG 1/15/2022: The focus should be on ice and not snow. https://t.co/Bi23qKAXR6 via @YouTube #cltwx #ncwx #scwx #wcnc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Lord have mercy! Catastrophic damage coming if this verifies. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, calculus1 said: Here’s the Panovich mid-morning blog. Really focuses on the Charlotte metro area. Moral of the story: ICE. Brad Panovich (@wxbrad) Tweeted: 11am Winter Storm VLOG 1/15/2022: The focus should be on ice and not snow. https://t.co/Bi23qKAXR6 via @YouTube #cltwx #ncwx #scwx #wcnc But Hickory west into Valdese/Morganton he said looks to get a good 4-6 inches of snow. So I'm happy with that. Now GSP is saying 6-8 inches of snow for these same areas. Just depends on the warm nose but this will for sure meet warning criteria then some. @calculus1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I think that crescent-moon metro shaped area in NC from about Hillsborough through Greensboro/High Point down to Charlotte/Rock Hill is in for some nasty. Get prepared folks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Hate to see the depth of the wedge become shallower, I think as the storm track has trended somewhat more inland. I'm starting to doubt that many will see more sleet than ZR, but it's kinda a coin flip at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Dps are dropping in central and southern virginia now. Should start to see them begin to drop in NC soon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hickory Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Local Mets in the Piedmont Triad are calling for around .25inch of ice. That’s not great, but not severe. some of these models are spitting out crazy numbers. What is y’all’s honest opinion? If you live in the triad should you be prepared to lose power? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Clemson, SC at 3am under a heavy band on Hrrr... Yes please! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, hickory said: Local Mets in the Piedmont Triad are calling for around .25inch of ice. That’s not great, but not severe. some of these models are spitting out crazy numbers. What is y’all’s honest opinion? If you live in the triad should you be prepared to lose power? 2-4” of SN/IP 1/10-1/4” ice that area Winston/MT Airy/Up to VA Border always over performs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU_Pi Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I realize this a dumb layman's question, but does the eruption of that volcano introduce any appreciable element of chaos on our forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drummer Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, NCSU_Pi said: I realize this a dumb layman's question, but does the eruption of that volcano introduce any appreciable element of chaos on our forecast? Pretty sure it’s too far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, NCSU_Pi said: I realize this a dumb layman's question, but does the eruption of that volcano introduce any appreciable element of chaos on our forecast? Only thing that might(key word) cause will be a long ways down the road. And it would likely have to do with temps and weather patterns according to Ryan Maue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 One thing is for sure...the SPC HiRES is not impressed with snow at all in Upstate SC except right along the NC border in the far N. It also shows potential for big snows on the ensemble max across most of NRN AL/Cntrl TN and far NW GA showing risk of 6-10. The mean itself is fairly low everywhere. I am not sure how well it does in SRN snow events but it does well in the Northeast. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: One thing is for sure...the SPC HiRES is not impressed with snow at all in Upstate SC except right along the NC border in the far N. It also shows potential for big snows on the ensemble max across most of NRN AL/Cntrl TN and far NW GA showing risk of 6-10. The mean itself is fairly low everywhere. I am not sure how well it does in SRN snow events but it does well in the Northeast. Care to post it the final totals of that for Western NC? CLT west to the mountains. If you can. @SnowGoose69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Anyone want to do this again next weekend? 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 The HRRR has been trending towards expanding the ZR region NE along the NC/SC border over the past 5 runs or so. Doing a quick glance at the 17z initialization, it appears to be initializing correctly. It'll be interesting to see if this trend continues. https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/?load=prun&prunType=2022011517-HRRR-SE-prec-ptype-18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, ARyan said: The HRRR has been trending towards expanding the ZR region NE along the NC/SC border over the past 5 runs or so. Doing a quick glance at the 17z initialization, it appears to be initializing correctly. It'll be interesting to see if this trend continues. https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/?load=prun&prunType=2022011517-HRRR-SE-prec-ptype-18 That has my curiosity up as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Local Mets in the Piedmont Triad are calling for around .25inch of ice. That’s not great, but not severe. some of these models are spitting out crazy numbers. What is y’all’s honest opinion? If you live in the triad should you be prepared to lose power? NWS Raleigh is calling for 0.20”-0.40” with isolated areas approaching 0.50” in their latest WSW statement for the Triad. I’m prepared to be without power for several days. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, wxduncan said: Care to post it the final totals of that for Western NC? CLT west to the mountains. If you can. This is the ensemble max 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: This is the ensemble max 6 to 8 for me. Not bad. Looks similar to Hi Res NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Most models seem to be dropping anywhere from 1.25-1.5" of precip across much of the piedmont to the mountains. Most of this falling in the low-mid 20s will make for a travel nightmare regardless on whether the precip is all Snow, Sleet, or Freezing Rain. It's been a long time since we've seen a wedge this stout and having precip amounts being modeled at well over an inch. I think this thing means business and I am looking forward to watching it all unfold from just a pure weather enthusiast's perspective. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: This is the ensemble max Looks good Morganton is right there on the mean of 4-6. But very close to the 6-8 mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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