buckeyefan1 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 10 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 18z EPS Clown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Still a nice front end thump on the HRRR, FWIW for central NC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 HRRR went full apps rubberSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Cmon guys let’s get the weenie sh*t out of here. We’re talking about the damn HRRR at 48 hours. Might as well start talking about the 240hr run of the GFS while we’re at it. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I have always said that sleet and freezing rain is such a waste of wintry weather....... Unfortunately that warm nose looks to be very very strong. Current forecast for all attached as well. Unfortunately I had a very very busy day today and was away from my computer. The really unique aspect for me is how strong the storm is getting without being off the coast. The storm goes from 1001 mb on the Gulf to 996 mb in southern GA to 995 mb in NC to 987 mb in VA without really ever moving over the Gulf Stream. Anyways, the wind is going to be something that will cause issues where the freezing rain area sets up. I think there will be numerous power outages in the freezing rain zone. Kind of just a messy messy storm if you will. Anyways, enjoy and I will be glad to answer any questions to the best of my ability. Video attached as well: 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Could someone explain the dynamics that is making this system go from southern Georgia sharply north to DC? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 12K Nam looks just a little quicker with wanting to push precip in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Ice Ice baby in 12km NAM for lots of the piedmont 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 The 0z NAM is a disaster of an ice storm... this is beginning to almost completely do away with the snow and just be an ice storm.... @Buddy1987, the NAM wouldn't even be good for yall man. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 8 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Could someone explain the dynamics that is making this system go from southern Georgia sharply north to DC? High pressure weakens a bit and slides east while the main low deepens from 1000 MB to around 990 MB in 12 hours. Of course it’s going to go hard poleward during that time, and it’s steered by the high as well 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, BornAgain13 said: The 0z NAM is a disaster of an ice storm... this is beginning to almost completely do away with the snow and just be an ice storm.... @Buddy1987, the NAM wouldn't even be good for yall man. Yea Disc sounded the alarm late last night. That damn ULL is just screwing up everything from cooking the mid levels to punching a dry slot perilously close to WNC and western VA. I think at this point just based strictly off the nam we’d be lucky to get 3-6/4-8 before sleet ravages us. The ice storm threat is becoming a real concern for you down that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Greenville, Spartanburg and especially Asheville are getting smoked here and Charlotte is going to have one hell of a gradient. Still think snow totals are going to come in a bit higher than the models suggest with that cold air aloft, it won’t be all concrete 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 15 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Could someone explain the dynamics that is making this system go from southern Georgia sharply north to DC? The SL strengthens quickly because the ULL is so strong and closed off. The ULL begins to interact with a shortwave shown on the 500 mb map and its pulls the ULL northward quickly. The ridge off the coast allows the ULL to escape, and we get an inland track. Definitely not a normal track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Can someone post the snow map for the latest NAM and/or HRRR? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Shocker0 said: Can someone post the snow map for the latest NAM and/or HRRR? Thanks Not really much of a snow map 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Here’s the ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 The thing thats hurting even the mountains up to VA is the low is just taking a hard left turn on these hi res models bringing in even more WAA. A track from Birmingham through western NC? Almost unheard of. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc33710 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 35 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: When did this HRRR update? This map shows more snow in Cen AL than others Ive seen. More sleet too but the freezing rain still stays well E of Cen AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc33710 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 16 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Greenville, Spartanburg and especially Asheville are getting smoked here and Charlotte is going to have one hell of a gradient. Still think snow totals are going to come in a bit higher than the models suggest with that cold air aloft, it won’t be all concrete Cen AL had a strong gradient Feb 21. Near the AL/MS state line got significant icing while Bham hovered 33-34 the whole time. As the system pulled out we saw some snow though. Admittedly the frigid air wasnt far west of us either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cigrgd Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 4 hours ago, oconeexman said: Gsp on que drops totals here after warning. That's exactly where you want it, lol. Clemson's best snows are always underforecasted. I've seen several 6-8" forecasts for that area end up as 1" or less. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Worlds difference on ICON as it transfers to the coast long before it even remotely resembles the nams evolution. I’m assuming GFS will hold serve but man the 0z runs have kicked off with some nuttiness. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Worlds difference on ICON as it transfers to the coast long before it even remotely resembles the nams evolution. I’m assuming GFS will hold serve but man the 0z runs have kicked off with some nuttiness. Of course the models trend further and further away from each other as we get closer to event time. Talk about a mess for GSP to forecast especially along the I-85 corridor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowacane Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 The best storms in the Triangle over the past 20+ years have been the ones that were not forecasted. I'll never forget Fish in the early 2000's saying that we were looking down the barrel of a gun and we were supposed to have over a foot. Next day was clear and sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Snowacane said: The best storms in the Triangle over the past 20+ years have been the ones that were not forecasted. I'll never forget Fish in the early 2000's saying that we were looking down the barrel of a gun and we were supposed to have over a foot. Next day was clear and sunny. It does seem that way. Was that the one where he had to jump in the fountain because he lost the bet? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, Snowacane said: The best storms in the Triangle over the past 20+ years have been the ones that were not forecasted. I'll never forget Fish in the early 2000's saying that we were looking down the barrel of a gun and we were supposed to have over a foot. Next day was clear and sunny. Remind me, weren't we supposed to get just an inch or 2 or 3 the night before that 2000 storm that dumped 1 ft plus? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 15 minutes ago, Snowacane said: The best storms in the Triangle over the past 20+ years have been the ones that were not forecasted. I'll never forget Fish in the early 2000's saying that we were looking down the barrel of a gun and we were supposed to have over a foot. Next day was clear and sunny. I remember those since I was at NCSU at the time from 02 to 05 I had to travel home to catch Feb 04 ... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 16 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Of course the models trend further and further away from each other as we get closer to event time. Talk about a mess for GSP to forecast especially along the I-85 corridor. Yea it’s nuts leading up to game time here. The Nam can be the Nam for sure at times but this def gives me some cause for concern if you are rooting for wintry type weather, regardless of what you want. Need that low to transfer and lock whatever cad is still in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowacane Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 11 minutes ago, JoshWeather said: Remind me, weren't we supposed to get just an inch or 2 or 3 the night before that 2000 storm that dumped 1 ft plus? Yes, and I'll never forget looking at radar and thinking it looked like a hurricane with snow. We have had a number of those that were not forecasted and that had a great deal of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 One big different between GFS and NAM is the front end thump is much heavier precip on GFS which gives mountains and foothills more snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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